America's revolving-door foreign policy leaves allies out in the cold
28 April 2026
A former senior adviser to President Joe Biden has warned that the world must prepare for an era of radical swings between two competing visions for American foreign policy, leaving US allies perpetually exposed.
Thomas Wright served as Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council under President Biden.
In a new Lowy Institute Paper, Inflection Point: Biden, Trump, and the Future World Order, Wright argues that the ideological gulf between the emerging Democratic worldview and the America First movement has grown so wide that America’s allies now face seismic geopolitical shifts with every change of administration.
"There are now two Americas, two visions of world order that share little in common and point in very different directions,” Wright says.
“Neither is likely to triumph over the other. The world will have to live with and respond to both.”
Comparing the different policy directions, Wright gives a rare insider’s account of the Biden administration's management of the Russia–Ukraine war, its strategy towards China, and the logic behind key programs, including AUKUS.
Wright then turns to President Trump's second term. He examines Trump’s embrace of tariffs, the retreat from strategic competition with China, the straining of alliances across the Indo-Pacific and Europe, and the January 2026 raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Wright argues a new generation of America First Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance, will sustain this worldview after President Trump departs the White House, making the split inside America a defining feature of world order for years to come.
He argues the implications for US allies are stark.
"Can allies trust extended nuclear deterrence if it is only likely to be provided half the time?" Wright asks.
"How will countries structure their economies if 20 per cent tariffs are imposed and taken off every four or eight years?"
Inflection Point is published by Penguin. It is available in bookstores and online.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Thomas Wright is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He served as Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council in the Biden administration and is now a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is the co-author, with Colin Kahl, of Aftershocks (2021).
ABOUT THE LOWY INSTITUTE PAPERS
The Lowy Institute Papers are the Lowy Institute’s flagship publications. They are peer-reviewed essays and research papers on key international issues affecting Australia and the world.
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