Asia Power Index: United States weakens, China and India rise amid shifting regional dynamics

The United States remains the most powerful country in Asia, according to the latest edition of the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index. But its power has fallen to the lowest level since the inception of the Index in 2018.

The seventh edition of the annual assessment, authored by Susannah Patton and Jack Sato, evaluates the power of 27 countries and territories across Asia, based on 131 indicators across eight thematic measures, including Military Capability and Defence Networks, Economic Capability and Relationships, Diplomatic and Cultural Influence, as well as Resilience and Future Resources.

In 2025, the top five countries for overall power are: the United States, China, India, Japan and Russia. Australia drops one place in this year’s ranking, to sixth.

The Index reveals a region in flux. China continues to erode the United States’ advantage in military capability, has weathered Washington’s coercive economic policies, and has benefited from uncertainty about the Trump administration’s approach to Asia, with its diplomatic influence reaching an all-time high for any Asia Power Index country.

India maintained its position as the third-most powerful country in the region and reached major power status in 2025, spurred by its strong economic growth and increasing military capability.

Meanwhile, Australia recorded a small decline as it struggled to match others’ economic and military resources. Benefiting from the support of authoritarian partners China and North Korea, Russia regained fifth place in the overall rankings.

KEY FINDINGS

• The United States is losing ground in Asia, recording its lowest ever score in the 2025 Asia Power Index. The Trump administration’s policies have been a net negative for US power in Asia, but their true effect will only be felt in the years ahead.
  
• China is gaining advantage, closing the gap with the United States to its narrowest margin since 2020. China is well placed to withstand coercive US economic policies. And it is successfully positioning itself as a reliable partner amid uncertainty about the US approach to Asia.
  
• India’s power in Asia continues to grow steadily, and in 2025 passed the threshold defined by the Asia Power Index for major power status. Yet the growth in India’s influence through diplomacy and economic relationships has not been commensurate with its expanding resources.
  
• Moscow’s power in Asia is rebounding, with “Fortress Russia” having proved able to withstand the costs of war and sanctions. In 2025, Russia’s power in Asia was boosted by growing economic and defence partnerships with authoritarian partners North Korea and China.
  
• Japan’s power in Asia remains steady, though it recorded negative results for all resource measures except military capability, where it recorded modest growth. Leadership churn in Tokyo has seen it lose altitude as a foreign policy leader in the Indo-Pacific.
  
• Southeast Asian countries mostly recorded small improvements in their comprehensive power in 2025, but the picture was mixed. The 2025 ASEAN chair Malaysia enjoyed growing regional influence, but others, in particular Thailand, continue to be domestically preoccupied. The diplomacy of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was focused more globally than regionally.
  
• Australia faces a long-term challenge to maintain relative power in Asia. It slipped back below Russia in the 2025 Asia Power Index rankings. Its economic and military resources have declined relative to other countries, meaning it will need to work harder with what it has to maintain its regional influence.

ABOUT THE ASIA POWER INDEX
The annual Asia Power Index — launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018 — ranks the relative power of 27 countries and territories in the Indo-Pacific region, by assessing their strengths against 131 indicators across eight thematic measures. It surveys countries as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

The Lowy Institute 2025 Asia Power Index is available at power.lowyinstitute.org.

MEDIA CONTACT
Andrew Griffits
Head of Media and Communications
media@lowyinstitute.org