Lowy Institute Poll 2025: Australians pessimistic about safety and economy

Amid conflict and global disorder, Australians’ feelings of safety and economic optimism have fallen to their lowest levels in the 21-year history of the Lowy Institute Poll.

Only 51 per cent of Australians say they feel either ‘safe’ or ‘very safe’ when thinking about the state of the world. Meanwhile, only half of Australians (52 per cent) say they feel any level of optimism about Australia’s economic performance over the next five years, both equalling Covid-era lows from 2020.

The Lowy Institute’s Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove, said Australians’ pessimism reflects a precarious time for the world.

“Australians are clearly unsettled by what they’ve seen of the second Trump administration, with almost two-thirds (64 per cent) now holding little to no trust in the United States to act responsibly — the lowest level in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll,” Dr Fullilove said.

“At the same time, the public continues to separate the person of the president from the institution of the alliance. Most Australians (80 per cent) still believe the Australia–US alliance is important to our security — one of the most consistent findings in the history of the Institute’s polling.”

The Poll’s author and Director of the Lowy Institute’s Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program, Ryan Neelam, said many Australians remain wary of China after the Chinese Navy’s circumnavigation of Australia earlier this year.

“Yet looking to the future, those who believe China (56 per cent) will be the most powerful country in the world in ten years more than doubles those who say the same of America (27 per cent),” Mr Neelam said.

“Half the population (51 per cent) say Australia should increase defence spending, although far fewer younger Australians are supportive of doing so.”

“And more than three years into Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, Australians remain firmly in Ukraine’s corner — including a clear majority who would support participating in a European-led peacekeeping mission after a ceasefire,” Mr Neelam said.

Urgency on climate change has somewhat softened in the face of cost-of-living pressures. But Mr Neelam said Australians strongly back the rollout of renewable energy technology.

“As Australia moves towards net zero emissions, three-quarters of Australians see renewables playing a ‘major role’ in the 2050 energy mix, compared to far fewer that envisage a major role for nuclear (37 per cent) or coal (24 per cent).”

Other key findings from the Lowy Institute Poll 2025 include:

• Only 25 per cent of Australians say they have ‘a lot’ of or ‘some’ confidence in Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs, while confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping remains low at 16 per cent (up four points since last year).
  
• Only 36 per cent now trust the United States to act responsibly, a 20-point drop since last year and the lowest level on record. Two-thirds of Australians (68 per cent) are pessimistic about the next four years with Donald Trump as US president.
  
• Most of the population (83 per cent) say Australia should make more goods in Australia, even if they cost more. The vast majority (82 per cent) are also supportive of renewable energy subsidies.
  
• Half of the public (51 per cent) see global warming as a serious and pressing problem about which we should begin taking steps now, even if this involves significant costs.
  
• Two-thirds of Australians (66 per cent) say that the current aid budget is ‘about right’ (49 per cent, a significant 11-point rise since 2017) or ‘too low’ (17 per cent). One-third say that it is ‘too high’ (33 per cent).
  
• Support for Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS remains firm, with 67 per cent favouring the deal. But the submarines are far more popular among those who lean towards the Coalition than those who lean towards Labor.
  
• A record high of three-quarters of Australians (74 per cent) see democracy as the best form of government, while 70 per cent think social media has a more negative than positive impact on democracy.

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