Trump has strengthened Xi Jinping’s hand and his ambitions to crack open the West

The return of Donald Trump to the White House is likely to harden China’s foreign policy ambitions to fracture the US-led global order, Richard McGregor argues in a new Lowy Institute Special Feature.

McGregor’s analysis, entitled The World According to Xi Jinping, examines the various elements of China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy under President Xi’s leadership. It explores the origins of China’s current policies, the crucial role a larger military and economy plays in allowing China to pursue its ambitions, and the individuals and institutions who carry Xi’s vision to the world.

Under Xi’s watch, McGregor argues, Beijing has been willing to confront the United States on multiple levels and more forcefully assert its interests in the region.

“It has aggressively entrenched and policed its many contested sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, in the waters near South Korea, and on its disputed border with India,” he said.

“It has taken the lead in establishing new multilateral diplomatic and financial bodies, with a particular focus on developing countries. It is pushing to redefine the core values of the United Nations away from democracy and towards development.”

McGregor asserts that Xi is likely to double down on the direction of current policy, following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

“China will keep investing heavily in technology to gain leverage over the United States and its allies, both in industry and the military. It will continue to try to marginalise Washington, particularly in Asia. Relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia will be strengthened. The focus on building alternative global power centres among emerging middle powers and developing countries will be accelerated.”

A confrontation with Washington could happen quickly or in slow motion, he concluded.

“But so long as Xi remains in power and the United States maintains a significant military presence in Asia, ever intensifying competition is on the cards.”

KEY FINDINGS

• Xi Jinping’s more assertive foreign policy is built on a foundation of growing economic size and military clout. Xi has been able to pursue the Chinese Communist Party’s longstanding aims more aggressively because he has the economic, military, and diplomatic tools to do so.
• The many arms of the party-state also push China’s interests abroad. This includes the party’s own foreign policy arm, multi-lingual state media outlets, state-owned companies, and United Front operations largely aimed at overseas Chinese.
• Xi has elevated national security to the core of the party-state’s domestic and foreign policy apparatus. He established China’s first National Security Commission in early 2014, whose staffing and operations remain highly opaque. Xi’s notion of “comprehensive national security” covers both internal and external security.

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