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20 June 2023
The 2023 Lowy Institute Poll reveals the decline in Australians’ attitudes towards Beijing may have bottomed out, with a slimmer majority of Australians now seeing China as a security threat compared to a year ago — although Australians still see a possible military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan as one of their biggest security fears.
The annual edition of the benchmark survey finds a majority of Australians would want to remain neutral in a conflict between the United States and China. But, significantly, they say if Taiwan were attacked by mainland China that they would be prepared to take in refugees, supply weapons and ammunition to Taipei and even go as far as joining an international naval action to counter a blockade of the island.
Concern about a US–China conflict over Taiwan is second only to the threat of cyberattacks, according to the nationally representative poll, which is now in its nineteenth year.
“After three years of global turmoil, Australians have caught their breath,” said Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute. “But there has been no return to factory settings. The shocks of recent years broke many underlying assumptions about the world.”
The Poll also reveals strong public support for the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine agreement, although respondents are less clear on how the deal will impact regional security, or whether it represents value for money.
Perhaps the most significant trend identified in the survey is an arrest in the decline of Australians’ attitudes towards China, which had been particularly pronounced in previous years. A slimmer majority of Australians (52%) now view China as more of a security threat than an economic partner — down from an all-time high of 63% in 2022 and 2021. However, Australians’ perception of China as a long-term military threat remains ingrained.
“Australians don’t want to see a conflict in our region and are cautious about the country’s involvement if a war did break out,” said Ryan Neelam, the Director of the Lowy Institute’s Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program. “But they are also prepared to stand by democracies that come under threat.”
“There are signs in this survey that negative public opinion towards China may have bottomed out. But much depends on what happens next. The ball is in Beijing’s court after a campaign of economic coercion and diplomatic pressure that ultimately damaged China's own image in Australia.”
Other key findings from the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll include:
The 2023 Lowy Institute Poll is the nineteenth edition of the annual opinion survey published by the Lowy Institute. It is the leading measure of Australians’ attitudes on international affairs. The 2023 Poll results, along with historical data and comparative analysis, will be available at the interactive site poll.lowyinstitute.org. Please cite this address in any online links.
The 2023 Lowy Institute Poll reports the results of two nationally representative online and telephone surveys conducted by the Social Research Centre between 14 and 26 March 2023 and 11 and 26 April 2023, with sample sizes of 2077 and 4469 Australian adults, respectively. The margin of error is approximately 2.2% (March survey) and 1.5% (April survey).
The 2023 Lowy Institute Poll is now available to access at poll.lowyinstitute.org.
Download and embed tools are available to generate screenshots, CSV datasets and embeddable iframe graphics.
A full PDF report of the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll is available to download.
Ryan Neelam, the Director of the Lowy Institute’s Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program, is available for media interviews about the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll.
Shane McLeod
Director, Media and Communications