The perception gap: reading China's maritime objectives in Indo-Pacific Asia

In a new Lowy Institute Report, Nonresident Fellows Linda Jakobson and Rory Medcalf examine differences in interests between China and other Indo-Pacific nations, and the sharp divergence of perceptions of China’s maritime strategic objectives.

The Report argues that a part of the growing tension between China and other countries in the Indo-Pacific can be attributed to differences of perception exacerbating real differences in interests, and that regional middle powers like Australia can use their diplomacy to moderate tensions by addressing this perception gap.

“China’s realistic strategic maritime objective is to ensure it is not denied access to its near seas and what it perceives as its sovereign maritime rights”, said Jakobson.

“China has legitimate motives to protect its wealthy South China Sea coastal provinces and the sea-lanes on which the entire country relies.”

However, public opinion and policy elites in Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines see not a reasonable assertion of China’s rights but rather an “intimidating affront to their own countries’ rights as equal and sovereign members of the international community”, argues Medcalf.

“They are acutely sensitive to any moves to privilege Chinese interests and perspectives over their own.”

Additionally, Indian popular and elite perceptions of China’s presence and motives in the Indian Ocean involve serious mistrust, said Medcalf.

"Just as other regional powers will need to reach clear understandings about what they can accept as legitimate Chinese interests, activity, and power-projection in the Indo-Pacific, so too will China need to consider the stabilising effect that narrowing its regional ambitions would have on its periphery”, Jakobson and Medcalf conclude.

“Here middle powers such as Australia have an opportunity to communicate to China that much of its assertive security behaviour in recent years has been counter-productive to its interests in a stable regional security environment and has strengthened, rather than diminished, US alliances and partnerships.”