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United States
When this Poll went to field in early March, US President Donald Trump, who was only six weeks into his term, had already signed more than 80 executive orders aimed at implementing his ‘America First’ agenda, repealed a range of his predecessor Joe Biden’s policies, and cast doubt on America’s commitment to alliances and international norms.
This included imposing or threatening tariffs on allies and competitors alike, calling for the annexation or acquisition of foreign countries and territories, and withdrawing from international agreements on health and climate change. President Trump was also pursuing efforts to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, but had labelled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’, voted with Russia and against European allies on UN resolutions on Ukraine, and harshly admonished the Ukrainian leader in a widely televised Oval Office encounter.
Despite the significant 20-point drop in trust towards the United States this year, Australia’s alliance with the United States, known as ANZUS, continues to garner widespread support among Australians. Eight in ten (80%) continue to say the alliance is ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security, steady on last year (83%).
This majority view of the importance of the alliance to Australia has been one of the most resilient features of Lowy Institute polling. It has largely withstood leadership changes and political swings in the United States, holding at a strong majority throughout Donald Trump’s first term.
Nevertheless, on average over the past two decades, Australians have placed more importance in the alliance during the terms of Democratic presidents (Obama and Biden) than Republican presidents (Bush and Trump), when support for the alliance waned. It is too early to tell if this pattern will be repeated during Trump’s second term. To date, the lowest ebb of support for the alliance was in 2007, during President George Bush’s war on Iraq. Even then, almost two-thirds (63%) of Australians said the alliance was important to the country’s security.
At the core of the ANZUS alliance is a commitment by Australia and the United States to consult each other in the event of a threat or armed attack on either party, and to ‘act to meet the common danger in accordance with … constitutional processes’.
Donald Trump has brought new urgency to the debate about whether the United States would come to Australia’s defence should Australia be attacked. Trump’s antipathy towards alliances, and his remarks that he would not defend European allies that do not spend enough on defence (in apparent rejection of NATO’s collective defence obligation), have cast doubt on whether he might also step back from mutual defence commitments with other allies.
However, a clear majority of Australians (63%) continue to think that the United States would come to Australia’s defence if it were attacked. Only one-third (33%) think the United States would not defend Australia.
In previous years, in response to a similar question, a significantly higher proportion of Australians (about three-quarters in 2019, 2021, and 2022) agreed with the statement ‘the United States would come to Australia’s defence if Australia was under threat’.
When it comes to the second presidency of Donald Trump, few Australians are upbeat. Approximately two-thirds (68%) say they are pessimistic about the next four years with Trump as US president, while three in ten (30%) say they are optimistic.
This contrasts sharply with American responses to the same question in a CBS survey in the United States, fielded just before President Trump’s inauguration. Then, 60% of Americans said they were optimistic about the next four years with Trump as president, compared to 40% who were pessimistic. Subsequently, a range of other polls in the United States have shown growing disapproval of President Trump’s performance and of many of his policies over his first 100 days in office.
In keeping with the ongoing sense of importance placed on the Australia–US alliance, the majority of Australians (57%) say that Australia should remain close to the United States under President Donald Trump. However, this is down seven points from 2018, the last time we asked this question (during Trump’s first presidential term). Four in ten (40%) say Australia should distance itself from the United States, an increase of nine points since 2018.
Regarding Donald Trump’s specific policies, every one of them we tested received clear majority disapproval from the Australian public, with the exception of his demand for allies to spend more on defence (evenly split at 49% approve and disapprove).
Australians are most disapproving of President Trump’s pressure on Denmark to sell or hand over the self-governing territory of Greenland to the United States (89%). President Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out using force to pursue this objective.
Eight in ten Australians also disapprove of Donald Trump’s use of tariffs to pressure other countries to comply with his administration’s objectives (81%). At the time of fieldwork, President Trump had announced plans for 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the United States, including from Australia, as well as announced or threatened tariffs against China, Canada, Mexico, and several other countries. He had not yet announced his 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tranche of tariffs on countries around the world.
Three-quarters of Australians disapprove of US withdrawal from the World Health Organization (76%) and international climate change agreements (74%). A similar majority of Australians disapprove (74%) of President Trump negotiating a deal on the future of Ukraine with Russian President Putin, whereby Ukraine may be asked to accept a loss of territory. President Trump’s combative Oval Office meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took place just before fieldwork for this Poll.
To a lesser extent, Australians disapprove of significantly reducing US spending on foreign aid (64%), and mass deportations of undocumented migrants (56%).
