Analyses

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After Xi: Future Scenarios for Leadership Succession in Post-Xi Jinping Era

A Joint Report of the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies and the Lowy Institute

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Digital Authoritarianism, China and COVID

The coronavirus has showcased China's cyber-powered socialcontrol capabilities, with implications for human rights worldwide

By Lydia Khalil

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2020 Asia Power Index Key Findings Report

The annual Asia Power Index — launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018 — measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia. The project maps out the existing distribution of power as it stands today, and tracks shifts in the balance of power over time. The Index ranks

By Hervé Lemahieu , Alyssa Leng

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The Point of No Return: The 2020 Election and the Crisis of American Foreign Policy

November's election puts the fundamental principles of US leadership to the test

By Thomas Wright

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The Australia–India Strategic Partnership: Accelerating Security Cooperation in the Indo–Pacific

Shared concerns about China's rise have propelled Australia and India to deepen their security ties

By Dhruva Jaishankar

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The Costs of COVID: Australia's Economic Prospects in a Wounded World

Despite a COVID-constrained global economy, rising unemployment and high government debt, meeting the fiscal challenge is within Australia's means

By John Edwards

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The World Trade Organization: An Optimistic Pre-mortem in Hopes of Resurrection

At a time when stability and predictability are needed most, the body at the heart of the rules-based trading system — the World Trade Organization — is reeling from far more than just a paralysed Appellate Body and antagonistic Trump administration

By Dmitry Grozoubinski

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Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia and the West

It’s time to rethink global governance and its priorities

By Bobo Lo

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Demanding the Future: Navigating the Pacific's Youth Bulge

With half the region's population aged under 23, the Pacific's 'youth bulge' will affect every area of development in the region in the coming decades

By Catherine Wilson

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Assessing the Quad: Prospects and Limitations of Quadrilateral Cooperation for Advancing Australia’s Interests

There is growing agreement between Australia, India, Japan and the United States that as China rises in Asia, the rules-based order needs strengthening and defending; but does the revived Security Quadrilateral Dialogue have any real prospect of rebalancing relationships in the region

By Lavina Lee

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West Papua: The Issue That Won't Go Away for Melanesia

West Papuans continue to fight for independence with the support of many Pacific nations. Despite Indonesia’s opposition and the recent impact of COVID-19 on the region, the resolution of West Papuan grievances may have stalled but nationalist sentiment has not been quelled.

By Johnny Blades

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The World After COVID

How will the COVID-19 pandemic change the world? Lowy Institute experts provide their analysis

By Ben Bland, Michael Fullilove, Bonnie S Glaser, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu , Richard McGregor, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah

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The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East

The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region.

By Anthony Bubalo

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China’s Economic Choices

China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea

By David Orsmond

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Foreign and Security Policy in the new Malaysia

Malaysia’s foreign and security policy faces myriad challenges, but not much is likely to change under Mahathir Mohamad’s ‘New Malaysia’ framework

By Elina Noor

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Ocean of debt? Belt and Road and debt diplomacy in the Pacific

China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet

By Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, Jonathan Pryke

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The Bougainville referendum and beyond

As Bougainville prepares for a referendum on independence, Australia must navigate a policy response that acknowledges the history of conflict and colonialism there, Bougainville nationalism, PNG sensitivities, the principles of the guiding Bougainville Peace Agreement and new geostrategic

By Ben Bohane

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Once more with feeling: Russia and the Asia-Pacific

How Moscow is rebooting the ‘turn to the East’ as part of its global strategy

By Bobo Lo

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Behind the Veil: Women in jihad after the caliphate

How the Islamic State has expanded the role of women in jihad and what that means for the future of jihad

By Lydia Khalil

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New Caledonia’s independence referendum: Local and regional implications

As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk

By Denise Fisher

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Politics in Indonesia: Resilient elections, defective democracy

The pressures on Indonesian democracy are not likely to abate under a second-term Jokowi or a Prabowo presidency

By Ben Bland

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‘New’ Malaysia: Four key challenges in the near term

In the aftermath of Malaysia’s momentous regime change, the new government faces a number of challenges to implementing wholesale political reform

By James Chin

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Reinforcing Indonesia–Australia defence relations: The case for maritime recalibration

A maritime realignment of Australia–Indonesia defence relations could shape the broader Indo-Pacific security architecture and provide an additional strategic hedge for both countries

By Evan A Laksmana

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Going legit? The foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

Putin’s foreign policy will remain grounded in long-standing assumptions about Russia, the West, and international order

By Bobo Lo

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Indonesia's economy: Between growth and stability

Indonesia has much economic potential but the trade-off between growth and stability continues to bind its growth ambitions

By Roland Rajah

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ASEAN–Australia relations: The suitable status quo

Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN is more suitable for Australian interests in Southeast Asia than the idea of ASEAN membership

By Malcolm Cook

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Unregulated population migration and other future drivers of instability in the Pacific

Potential drivers of unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands require attention from regional governments including Australia

By Rita Parker

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“Americanism, not globalism”: President Trump and the American mission

President Trump may be unwittingly preparing the United States for the end of American global hegemony

By James Curran

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Getting Singapore in shape: Economic challenges and how to meet them

Without bold adjustments, Singapore’s extraordinary economic performance may prove difficult to sustain

By Manu Bhaskaran

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Instability in the Pacific Islands: A status report

Domestic developments in the Pacific Island states matter more than ever to Australia

By Stewart Firth

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Trump, Kim and the North Korean nuclear missile melodrama

The Trump–Kim summit is a distinct new phase in the dramatic cycle that defines the North Korea nuclear issue and the peninsula’s highly theatrical brand of geopolitics

By Euan Graham

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Safeguarding Australia’s security interests through closer Pacific ties

Greater Australian engagement in the Pacific Islands region is needed if Canberra wants to ensure regional stability and underpin Australia’s national security

By Greg Colton

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Charities and terrorism: Lessons from the Syrian crisis

Terrorists have manipulated the humanitarian crisis in Syria to create a cover for foreign fighters and to raise funds for terrorist groups under the guise of charitable donations

By Rodger Shanahan

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Beyond access: Making Indonesia’s education system work

Indonesia’s education system is low in quality and the underlying causes are political

By Andrew Rosser

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The missing middle: A political economy of economic restructuring in Vietnam

Despite impressive economic performance, Vietnam’s strong trade and investment gains have yet to fully overcome the vestiges of its economic past

By Matthew Busch

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Papua New Guinea: Seven snapshots of a nation

The Lowy Institute has produced seven papers assessing the contemporary challenges facing Papua New Guinea in 2017

By Bal Kama, Jenny Hayward-Jones, Paul Barker, Jonathan Pryke, Sinclair Dinnen, Craig Lawrence, David Osborne

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Clear waters and green mountains: Will Xi Jinping take the lead on climate change?

President Trump’s retreat on climate change put China ‘in the driver’s seat’. But to really demonstrate leadership, China needs to green its overseas investments

By Sam Geall

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US–Vietnam relations under President Trump

Under President Obama the bilateral relationship between the United States and Vietnam flourished. Despite some misgivings about the future direction of US policy in the region under President Trump, Hanoi is working hard to ensure that the relationship continues to expand

By Huong Le Thu

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Autopilot: East Asia policy under Trump

Donald Trump has put US policy in East Asia on autopilot. But that could leave the United States far off course — and in a crisis, Trump will be required to fly the plane

By Aaron L Connelly

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An accident waiting to happen: Trump, Putin and the US–Russia relationship

How US–Russia relations have sunk to a new low under the most pro-Kremlin president in history

By Bobo Lo

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Xi Jinping's moment

Xi Jinping, a politically daring, economically cautious, Chinese leader is certain to win a second five-year term at the 19th Party Congress, but his harsh line against his opponents, and his timidity on the economy, may come back to haunt him in his second term

By Richard McGregor

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Neither friend nor foe: Pakistan, the United States and the war in Afghanistan

The Trump administration's Afghanistan policy suggests that the United States will exert greater pressure on Pakistan, but no amount of US foreign assistance or coercion is likely to change Pakistan's behaviour, especially while its security establishment continues to view US

By Hussain Nadim

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Managing economic risk in Asia: A strategy for Australia

Australia can use its economic diplomacy to manage economic risks in the region, and should engage with the International Monetary Fund and regional partners to close gaps in crisis response arrangements (Photo: Getty Images/Thomas Mnller

By Barry Sterland

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A Global Compact on Refugees: The role of Australia

Australia has a vested interest and particular experience and expertise to contribute to the Global Compact on Refugees in order to institute a more effective and equitable response to asylum seekers and refugees (Photo: Getty Images/SOPA Images

By Khalid Koser

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Thailand’s triple threat

Thailand’s status as a relatively stable and predictable partner, in both business and geopolitical terms, is now imperilled (Photo: Getty Images/Borja Sanchez Trillo

By Nicholas Farrelly

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Can Russia afford to be a great power?

While Russia wants to be recognised as a great power, and has sufficient economic power and potential to encourage it to behave accordingly, there are economic limits to its behaviour

By Stephen Fortescue

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Resource nationalism in post-boom Indonesia: The new normal?

Most observers expected resource nationalism in Indonesia to fade once the global commodity boom ended. Yet despite more difficult economic circumstances, Indonesia’s government has stayed on a nationalist economic path. This Analysis examines the factors that sustain resource nationalism in

By Eve Warburton

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Indonesia di Laut Cina Selatan: Berjalan sendiri

Selagi Indonesia di bawah pimpinan Jokowi dapat diharapkan terus mengambil langkah unilateral untuk memperkuat posisi Indonesia di sekitar Kepulauan Natuna, Jokowi belum memainkan peran diplomasi yang aktif pada isu Laut Cina Selatan yang lebih luas. Untuk jangka panjang, Indonesia akan lebih baik

By Aaron L Connelly

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Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative

China’s Belt and Road Initiative is one of President Xi’s most ambitious foreign and economic initiatives. It reflects a combination of economic and strategic drivers, not all of which can be easily reconciled. Photo: Flickr/Johannes Zielcke.

By Peter Cai

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Future proofing Australia–New Zealand defence relations

Australia and New Zealand are developing maritime capabilities to uphold the rules-based system. Regional uncertainty will intensify their defence cooperation, but trans-Tasman differences in outlook and investment will need careful management. Photo: Getty Images/Teaukura Moetaua

By Robert Ayson

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