The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East
The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region.
Monday 06 Apr 2020 | 05:26 | SYDNEY
What's happening on 
China’s Economic Choices
China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea
Foreign and Security Policy in the new Malaysia
Malaysia’s foreign and security policy faces myriad challenges, but not much is likely to change under Mahathir Mohamad’s ‘New Malaysia’ framework
By Elina Noor
Ocean of debt? Belt and Road and debt diplomacy in the Pacific
China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet
The Bougainville referendum and beyond
As Bougainville prepares for a referendum on independence, Australia must navigate a policy response that acknowledges the history of conflict and colonialism there, Bougainville nationalism, PNG sensitivities, the principles of the guiding Bougainville Peace Agreement and new geostrategic
By Ben Bohane
Once more with feeling: Russia and the Asia-Pacific
How Moscow is rebooting the ‘turn to the East’ as part of its global strategy
By Bobo Lo
Behind the Veil: Women in jihad after the caliphate
How the Islamic State has expanded the role of women in jihad and what that means for the future of jihad
By Lydia Khalil
New Caledonia’s independence referendum: Local and regional implications
As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk
Politics in Indonesia: Resilient elections, defective democracy
The pressures on Indonesian democracy are not likely to abate under a second-term Jokowi or a Prabowo presidency
By Ben Bland
‘New’ Malaysia: Four key challenges in the near term
In the aftermath of Malaysia’s momentous regime change, the new government faces a number of challenges to implementing wholesale political reform
By James Chin
Reinforcing Indonesia–Australia defence relations: The case for maritime recalibration
A maritime realignment of Australia–Indonesia defence relations could shape the broader Indo-Pacific security architecture and provide an additional strategic hedge for both countries
Going legit? The foreign policy of Vladimir Putin
Putin’s foreign policy will remain grounded in long-standing assumptions about Russia, the West, and international order
By Bobo Lo
Indonesia's economy: Between growth and stability
Indonesia has much economic potential but the trade-off between growth and stability continues to bind its growth ambitions
By Roland Rajah
ASEAN–Australia relations: The suitable status quo
Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN is more suitable for Australian interests in Southeast Asia than the idea of ASEAN membership
By Malcolm Cook
Unregulated population migration and other future drivers of instability in the Pacific
Potential drivers of unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands require attention from regional governments including Australia
By Rita Parker
“Americanism, not globalism”: President Trump and the American mission
President Trump may be unwittingly preparing the United States for the end of American global hegemony
By James Curran
Getting Singapore in shape: Economic challenges and how to meet them
Without bold adjustments, Singapore’s extraordinary economic performance may prove difficult to sustain
Instability in the Pacific Islands: A status report
Domestic developments in the Pacific Island states matter more than ever to Australia
Trump, Kim and the North Korean nuclear missile melodrama
The Trump–Kim summit is a distinct new phase in the dramatic cycle that defines the North Korea nuclear issue and the peninsula’s highly theatrical brand of geopolitics
By Euan Graham
Safeguarding Australia’s security interests through closer Pacific ties
Greater Australian engagement in the Pacific Islands region is needed if Canberra wants to ensure regional stability and underpin Australia’s national security
By Greg Colton
Charities and terrorism: Lessons from the Syrian crisis
Terrorists have manipulated the humanitarian crisis in Syria to create a cover for foreign fighters and to raise funds for terrorist groups under the guise of charitable donations
Beyond access: Making Indonesia’s education system work
Indonesia’s education system is low in quality and the underlying causes are political
The missing middle: A political economy of economic restructuring in Vietnam
Despite impressive economic performance, Vietnam’s strong trade and investment gains have yet to fully overcome the vestiges of its economic past
Papua New Guinea: Seven snapshots of a nation
The Lowy Institute has produced seven papers assessing the contemporary challenges facing Papua New Guinea in 2017
Clear waters and green mountains: Will Xi Jinping take the lead on climate change?
President Trump’s retreat on climate change put China ‘in the driver’s seat’. But to really demonstrate leadership, China needs to green its overseas investments
By Sam Geall
US–Vietnam relations under President Trump
Under President Obama the bilateral relationship between the United States and Vietnam flourished. Despite some misgivings about the future direction of US policy in the region under President Trump, Hanoi is working hard to ensure that the relationship continues to expand
By Huong Le Thu
Autopilot: East Asia policy under Trump
Donald Trump has put US policy in East Asia on autopilot. But that could leave the United States far off course — and in a crisis, Trump will be required to fly the plane
An accident waiting to happen: Trump, Putin and the US–Russia relationship
How US–Russia relations have sunk to a new low under the most pro-Kremlin president in history
By Bobo Lo
Xi Jinping's moment
Xi Jinping, a politically daring, economically cautious, Chinese leader is certain to win a second five-year term at the 19th Party Congress, but his harsh line against his opponents, and his timidity on the economy, may come back to haunt him in his second term
Neither friend nor foe: Pakistan, the United States and the war in Afghanistan
The Trump administration's Afghanistan policy suggests that the United States will exert greater pressure on Pakistan, but no amount of US foreign assistance or coercion is likely to change Pakistan's behaviour, especially while its security establishment continues to view US
Managing economic risk in Asia: A strategy for Australia
Australia can use its economic diplomacy to manage economic risks in the region, and should engage with the International Monetary Fund and regional partners to close gaps in crisis response arrangements (Photo: Getty Images/Thomas Mnller
A Global Compact on Refugees: The role of Australia
Australia has a vested interest and particular experience and expertise to contribute to the Global Compact on Refugees in order to institute a more effective and equitable response to asylum seekers and refugees (Photo: Getty Images/SOPA Images
By Khalid Koser
Thailand’s triple threat
Thailand’s status as a relatively stable and predictable partner, in both business and geopolitical terms, is now imperilled (Photo: Getty Images/Borja Sanchez Trillo
Can Russia afford to be a great power?
While Russia wants to be recognised as a great power, and has sufficient economic power and potential to encourage it to behave accordingly, there are economic limits to its behaviour
Resource nationalism in post-boom Indonesia: The new normal?
Most observers expected resource nationalism in Indonesia to fade once the global commodity boom ended. Yet despite more difficult economic circumstances, Indonesia’s government has stayed on a nationalist economic path. This Analysis examines the factors that sustain resource nationalism in
Indonesia di Laut Cina Selatan: Berjalan sendiri
Selagi Indonesia di bawah pimpinan Jokowi dapat diharapkan terus mengambil langkah unilateral untuk memperkuat posisi Indonesia di sekitar Kepulauan Natuna, Jokowi belum memainkan peran diplomasi yang aktif pada isu Laut Cina Selatan yang lebih luas. Untuk jangka panjang, Indonesia akan lebih baik
Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is one of President Xi’s most ambitious foreign and economic initiatives. It reflects a combination of economic and strategic drivers, not all of which can be easily reconciled. Photo: Flickr/Johannes Zielcke.
By Peter Cai
Future proofing Australia–New Zealand defence relations
Australia and New Zealand are developing maritime capabilities to uphold the rules-based system. Regional uncertainty will intensify their defence cooperation, but trans-Tasman differences in outlook and investment will need careful management. Photo: Getty Images/Teaukura Moetaua
By Robert Ayson
The development benefits of expanding Pacific access to Australia’s labour market
The long-term development prospects for the Pacific are bleak, yet it is an integral region for Australia’s strategic and development interests. One proposal that has the potential for transformational change in the region is enabling greater Pacific access to Australia’s labour market. This
Indonesia in the South China Sea: Going it alone
While Indonesia under Jokowi can be expected to continue to take unilateral action to reinforce the Indonesian position around the Natuna Islands, Jokowi has not played an active diplomatic role on the broader South China Sea issue. In the longer term, Indonesia is better off investing in diplomatic
How to be exceptional: Australia in the slowing global economy
While the US and UK have seen political rebellions against migration and trade, Australia has tranquilly entered its 26th year of growth. Australia can in coming decades increase living standards faster than most other advanced economies, despite gloomy prophecies and slowing global growth.
By John Edwards
Economic migration and Australia in the 21st century
This Analysis assesses the benefits and challenges of contemporary economic immigration in Australia. It argues that Australian governments have managed significant recent changes to immigration policy successfully. The authors recommend various reforms to maintain public confidence in expansive
The 2016 presidential campaign and the crisis of US foreign policy
A Trump presidency could see the United States undermine the liberal international order that it helped to establish. Clinton, by contrast, would be a more traditional internationalist president.
Tactical nuclear weapons in the modern nuclear era
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Brendan Thomas-Noone argues that advances in technology are making tactical nuclear weapons more precise and potentially more usable. He argues that new arms control measures are needed to promote greater transparency about the development of these weapons.
Photo:
Foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq: The day after
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan and Nonresident Fellow Lydia Khalil argue that an increasing number of foreign fighters are likely to leave Syria and Iraq in the coming months and years, especially after the collapse of Islamic State’s caliphate, exacerbating
Reforming the international protection regime: Responsibilities, roles and policy options for Australia
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Nonresident Fellow in the Migration and Border Policy Project Dr Khalid Koser argues that the international protection regime is failing and Australia has a responsibility to help fix it. Koser defines how promoting reform, at the domestic, regional and global levels
By Khalid Koser
Making the most of the G20
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, G20 Studies Centre Research Fellow and Project Director Tristram Sainsbury and Research Associate Hannah Wurf argue that the G20 should be at the centre of Australia’s approach to international economic engagement in the years ahead.
Photo: Getty Images/VCG
Principled engagement: Rebuilding defence ties with Fiji
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Anna Powles and Jose Sousa-Santos argue that Russia’s sale of arms to Fiji underlines how the security orthodoxy in the Pacific Islands region is changing. Unless Australia and New Zealand adapt to these changing strategic circumstances they will lose influence in
Turning back? Philippine security policy under Duterte
The incoming Duterte administration in the Philippines promises to be very different from the Aquino administration. Security policy will be more inward-looking. Military modernisation and challenging China’s claims in the West Philippine Sea will likely be less important
By Malcolm Cook
The lion and the kangaroo: Australia’s strategic partnership with Singapore
While Canberra is enhancing its economic access to Southeast Asia in return for granting Singapore greater access to military training areas in Australia, Singapore’s strategic stock is also rising as Australia’s most advanced and reliable security partner in the region
By Euan Graham
Pages