In Donald Trump we distrust – in record numbers

The last time Australia held a federal election, it was China that loomed large. Today, in the lead-up the May election, it is Australia’s major security ally, rather than its largest trading partner, that is casting a shadow over the political contest.

Since taking office in January, Donald Trump has shattered global assumptions about the United States’ power and place in the world, its involvement in global institutions, and its approach to allies and partners.
Australians have felt this dislocation sharply.

The Lowy Institute Poll, which has been tracking attitudes to foreign policy since 2005, this year recorded a dramatic 20-point drop in Australians’ trust in the United States to act responsibly. As of March, only 36 per cent of the public express any level of trust in Australia’s key ally – the lowest point in two decades, surpassing a previous record low of 51 per cent in 2020, during Trump’s first term.

Conversely, distrust in the US increased sharply this year, with almost two-thirds of Australians (64 per cent) saying they hold little or no trust in the US to act responsibly.
This is a remarkable decline in public sentiment, but it’s not the first such reversal in Australians’ attitudes towards a superpower.

In 2019, as Australia grappled with foreign interference in its politics and China’s rapid militarisation in the region, trust towards the Asian superpower fell 20 points to 32 per cent. This decline continued over subsequent years, but its beginning heralded a paradigm shift in Australian public sentiment and policy towards China.

Threat perceptions and risk have since played a more pervasive role compared to the relative optimism about China’s rise after the turn of the century.
 

Greenland a hot issue
 

It’s not difficult to infer what is driving current distrust of the US. Since January, Australians have watched Trump impose tariffs on friends and competitors alike, including, inexplicably, their own country. They watched him blame Ukraine for Russia’s unjustified invasion, vote with Russia and against Western allies at the United Nations, and publicly humiliate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. And they have heard Trump voice radical ambitions to annex Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal and Gaza.

These actions and statements run counter to Australian instincts. Australians have long shown they favour free trade over protectionism, democracy over authoritarianism, and co-operation over unilateralism.

Indeed, in a rebuke to Trump’s foreign policy agenda, Australians expressed majority disapproval on almost every one of his policies the Lowy Institute tested.

Australians are most critical of Trump’s attempt to acquire the self-governing territory of Greenland (89 per cent), which Trump has repeatedly refused ruling out the use of force to achieve. Eight in 10 Australians (81 per cent) also disapprove of his use of tariffs to pressure other countries.

Consistent with their internationalist leanings, three-quarters of Australians disapprove of the US withdrawing from the World Health Organisation (76 per cent) and international climate change agreements (74 per cent).

A similar majority of Australians disapprove (74 per cent) of Trump negotiating a deal on the future of Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whereby Ukraine may be asked to accept a loss of territory.

“The problem is, at a time when Australian threat perceptions of China remain high, the US has never looked less reliable.”

To a lesser extent, Australians disapprove of significantly reducing US spending on foreign aid (64 per cent) and mass deportations of undocumented migrants (56 per cent).

The one exception to otherwise categorical rejection of Trump’s policies is the president’s demand for US allies to spend more on defence – Australians are evenly split on this matter.

So, how do these negative perceptions affect Australia’s longstanding security alliance with the US?

Despite the drop in trust, the vast majority of Australians (80 per cent) continue to say the alliance is important for the nation’s security. Australians appear to be distinguishing between the unpredictability of the White House and the role of the broader alliance – for now.

This may also reflect a sense that Australia, faced with China’s growing military assertiveness in its near neighbourhood, has few real alternatives when it comes to the United States’ capacity to balance and deter Chinese aggression.

The problem is, at a time when Australian threat perceptions of China remain high, the US has never looked less reliable.

And while the volatile years of Trump’s presidency may pass, few believe America will simply return to the expansive role it previously played in underwriting the international rules-based order.

The US alliance has been a central pillar of Australia’s foreign and defence policy since 1951. That will not change quickly, nor should it.

But ultimately, alliances are built on trust. Once trust starts to unravel, assumptions and policies start to change.

We are seeing the beginnings of a recalibration for a world where we can no longer depend on America.