Southeast Asia bears one of the world’s highest burdens of tobacco-related illnesses and economic losses. While eight countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have reported a decline in smoking rates, Indonesia and member hopeful Timor-Leste remain outliers.
Efforts to curb tobacco use across the region remain sluggish. The ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint 2025 recognises the devastating impact of non-communicable diseases, while the 2013 Bandar Seri Begawan Declaration reaffirmed the region’s political will to tackle smoking. Initiatives such as the ASEAN Health Cluster 1 Work Plan have been launched, along with the ASEAN Focal Points on Tobacco Control.
However, despite these commitments, of ASEAN’s adult population, nearly one in five –around 121 million people – still smoke.
Indonesia, the only ASEAN country yet to ratify the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, faces stagnation in its tobacco control efforts. More than 72 per cent of men use tobacco. The economic impact is staggering, with estimates of smoking-related costs reaching as much as US$25 billion annually, or up to 2.6 per cent of GDP.
AI-driven data analytics can track smoking trends, assess policy effectiveness, and predict future tobacco-related health burdens.
In Timor-Leste, historically low cigarette taxes and weak enforcement have contributed to 69 per cent of men smoking, resulting in an economic burden exceeding US$64 million –1.5 per cent of GDP. These statistics reveal a clear policy and implementation failure: traditional approaches alone are insufficient.
ASEAN has devoted significant attention to public health crises such as pandemics, obesity, and mental health. Yet tobacco control – an issue directly linked to non-communicable diseases and preventable deaths – has not received the same urgency. This neglect is short-sighted. Smoking exacerbates respiratory conditions, contributes to cardiovascular diseases, and undermines public health progress. Moreover, with healthcare systems already strained by recent health crises, continued inaction on tobacco control only deepens the burden.
Addressing tobacco use is not just a public health necessity but also a strategic imperative for sustaining economic productivity and reducing healthcare costs in ASEAN’s rapidly aging populations, aligned with the ASEAN Post-2015 Health Development Agenda.
Technological advances offer the prospect of progress on this stubborn problem. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers a transformative opportunity for ASEAN to overcome the limitations of traditional tobacco control strategies. AI-driven data analytics can track smoking trends, assess policy effectiveness, and predict future tobacco-related health burdens. Governments can use AI to monitor compliance with tobacco control laws, ensuring stronger enforcement of advertising bans and smoke-free zones. AI-powered surveillance can identify illicit tobacco trade patterns, helping authorities crack down on smuggling and tax evasion.
Beyond improving policy enforcement, AI also plays a critical role in supporting individuals who want to quit smoking. AI-powered mobile apps such as WHO’s Florence, Quit Genius, and SmokeFree provide personalised cessation plans, real-time behavioural coaching, and relapse prevention strategies. Chatbots and virtual assistants offer 24/7 counselling, breaking barriers like stigma and limited access to healthcare professionals. Predictive algorithms assess smoking behaviours, allowing interventions to be tailored to users’ specific triggers and habits. The high mobile phone penetration rate in ASEAN means these AI solutions can reach even remote populations, making quitting support more accessible and cost-effective.
While AI presents immense potential, its successful deployment requires addressing key barriers. Infrastructure and digital access remain a challenge, particularly in areas with low internet penetration in Indonesia and Timor-Leste. But increased investment in digital health infrastructure can enhance accessibility.
Cultural adaptation is also essential, as AI interventions must incorporate localised messaging and behavioural models to resonate with ASEAN’s diverse populations, where smoking is deeply embedded in social norms. Data sovereignty and governance must be prioritised, with governments establishing clear policies on AI-driven health data usage to ensure privacy and ethical management while fostering innovation.
Public-private collaboration is another critical factor, as effective AI implementation requires cooperation between governments, tech firms, and health organisations to scale up AI-powered cessation programs.
AI will not solve the challenge alone, but it is a game-changer. By embedding AI-driven solutions into national tobacco control strategies, ASEAN can significantly improve smoking cessation rates, reduce healthcare costs, and boost economic productivity. Policymakers must act now – leveraging AI’s capabilities, integrating it into broader digital health strategies, and treating tobacco control as an urgent regional priority. The alternative? Allowing millions to continue suffering from preventable diseases while economic losses mount.
The region can no longer afford to overlook AI’s role in tobacco control. It’s time to embrace innovation and take decisive action as a new emphasis in the ASEAN way.
