North Korea, explained.
A Russian first aid pocket manual translated into Korean found on a North Korean solider captured in Kursk (Ed Ram/for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
With no reliable evidence of North Korean soldiers beyond Kursk, the reality isn’t matching the media hype.
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Are there actually North Korean troops inside Ukraine?Are there actually North Korean troops inside Ukraine?
Recent media reports on North Korean troops in Russia made astonishing claims about the scope of their operation. The BBC claimed that “Russia's Vladimir Putin has thanked Kim Jong-un for the courage of his troops who have been fighting in Ukraine on the Russian side.” The ABC similarly noted, “thousands of North Korean troops have been sent to fight and die in Ukraine”.
Such claims, if proven, would signal a significant change in the level of North Korea’s military assistance to Russia. The Russia–North Korea Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership requires one party “removing the prevailing threat” if the other party is subject to “a direct threat of armed invasion”. North Korea sending troops to fight inside Ukraine will mean that it has gone above its responsibility to defend Russia.
Moscow and Pyongyang have confirmed North Korea did send troops to fight for Russia, but only in the country’s Kursk oblast. During an exchange on the sidelines of China’s 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, Kim and Putin mentioned again that North Korean troops were present only in Kursk. North Korea’s commemoration of its own war deaths only referred to the “liberation of Kursk territory”. Even Western sources confirmed the presence of North Korean troops only in Kursk, with the Pentagon last November noting the deployment. Ukrainian sources mentioned the capture of a North Korean soldier in Kursk in December. As recently as March, the Ukrainian military reported that Russian and North Korean forces had retaken two-thirds of the territory that Ukraine took in the summer counter-offensive, suggesting that North Korea concentrated on repelling Ukrainian troops from Russian territory. There was no mention from any reliable source that North Korean troops were fighting on Ukrainian territory.
In July, CNN quoted undisclosed Ukrainian officials who stated that North Korea would be sending up to an additional 30,000 troops into Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, a claim repeated by The Kyiv Independent and Kyiv Post. South Korean intelligence was not specific on the geographical scope of the additional deployment, but suggested that North Korea would send troops to Russia in July or August. NK News confirmed that Seoul could not verify the CNN report and, indeed, speculation about the troop deployment did not materialise. North Korea welcomed back its military officials from the Russian front in late August, and experts do not currently see any indicators of North Korean troops present in Russia-occupied territory in Ukraine.
Even as an international pariah, North Korea does not want to be seen as violating another country’s sovereignty.
North Korea has a rationale for avoiding sending troops or denying it is sending troops to Ukraine. Even as an international pariah, North Korea does not want to be seen as violating another country’s sovereignty. That means Pyongyang has framed its military engagements as an act of defence rather than of aggression. The country’s official history blames South Korea for starting the Korean War. In acknowledging its provision of military support to help North Vietnam defend against US bombing during the Vietnam War, and sending pilots to help Egypt defend itself from Israeli aerial attacks during the Yom Kippur War, Pyongyang has emphasised that its troops restricted their activities to allied territory.
Such an interpretation of history conveniently attenuates North Korea’s meticulous planning for war against South Korea and the presence of North Korean troops aiding the Viet Cong against the internationally recognised Saigon government. Downplaying North Korea’s disregard for sovereign states serves a strategic purpose: Pyongyang wants to up the ante on a US–South Korean invasion by stressing its respect for sovereignty and the West’s violations thereof. It also strengthens North Korea’s sovereign rights to nuclear weapons ownership and justifies its decision to send troops to Russia with both international and domestic audiences.
The norms of sovereignty will not prevent North Korea from sending troops to Ukraine if needed. However, North Korea fully comprehends the cost of such a decision and will seek to minimise it. North Korea can avoid expanding its operation outside of Russian territory because it is not required to do so under the treaty. Russian officials said that North Korea would send additional military construction workers and de-miners, but only to rebuild Kursk, and not to Ukraine. Even if Russia increases its reward to entice North Koreans to fight in Russian-occupied territory, North Korea will likely avoid acknowledging its involvement by having its troops wear Russian military uniforms and carry fake military IDs. Pyongyang’s demand that its soldiers commit suicide to evade capture will make it harder for Ukraine to collect evidence of North Korea’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory by referendum also allows for a technical expansion of North Korean treaty obligations, as Pyongyang could claim that its troops in occupied territory are there to defend Russia.
However, North Korea has not, as yet, sent additional troops to Ukraine or Russian-occupied territory, contrary to CNN reports. The only evidence on the ground in Ukraine at present is North Korean artillery shells and weapons. As Ukraine continues occupying a small portion of Kursk, North Korea will likely maintain focus on that region. Meanwhile, Western media will continue to paint North Korea as a risk-acceptant actor.
About the author
Khang Vu
Khang Vu is a visiting scholar in the Political Science Department at Boston College.
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