Ten years ago, people smugglers abandoned more than 8,000 refugees and migrants to be stranded for weeks in the Andaman Sea. An estimated 370 people died. The Andaman Sea has long been a major route for those fleeing persecution and violence in Myanmar and Bangladesh, but because it lies between Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, responses have often been ad hoc. Inconsistency and inadequacy defined both national and regional actions to the 2015 crisis. Without clear protocols or agreements, neighbouring countries pushed boats back or looked the other way. It became one of the deadliest episodes of forced migration that Southeast Asia has seen in recent memory.
The incident was a confronting wake-up call. Governments quickly realised they were ill-equipped to respond effectively to future refugee crises. Indonesia and Thailand, in particular – two of the region’s key refugee-hosting countries – began reforming their policies, recognising the need for better systems to manage refugee flows while balancing national security and humanitarian obligations.
In Indonesia, the crisis prompted the issuance of Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No. 125 of 2016, the only regulation in the region that defines “refugee” in accordance with international conventions. It established formal procedures for treating asylum seekers and refugees, including a duty to rescue those stranded at sea and the introduction of alternatives to immigration detention.
In Thailand, a significant milestone was developing and implementing the National Screening Mechanism, approved in 2019 and operational since 2023. It allows the government to grant refugees “protected person” status, enabling access to basic services. Thailand has also made progress on community-based care for children, moving away from immigration detention facilities.
The risk of another crisis is growing. Ongoing civil war in Myanmar, the fallout from April’s earthquake, and worsening conditions in camps in Cox’s Bazar are pushing more people to flee.
The crisis also catalysed regional-level change. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Bali Process, two key regional bodies with practical mandates on forced migration, used the fallout as an opportunity for reform.
In 2016, the Bali Process formally reviewed its response, concluding that the crisis had been “in large part predictable … [t]he movement was longstanding, and the absence of a coordinated response to a crisis was likely.” To address this, Co-Chairs Australia and Indonesia adopted the Bali Declaration – an ambitious agreement urging member states to protect vulnerable populations. It also established an emergency response “Consultation Mechanism” and an operational Taskforce on Planning and Preparedness. Since then, the mechanism has been activated several times, leading to emergency meetings, “good offices” visits to Rakhine State and Cox’s Bazar, regional roundtables, and joint tabletop exercises.
ASEAN also took action. In July 2015, it convened an Emergency Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime, resulting in a Trust Fund to support humanitarian efforts “resulting from irregular movements”. That same year, it finalised the legally binding ASEAN Convention Against Trafficking in Persons (ACTIP). In 2019, ASEAN adopted a Declaration on the Rights of Children in the Context of Migration – the only document explicitly mentioning asylum seekers and refugees. While non-binding, it includes recommendations on child protection, education access, and alternatives to detention.
Despite these developments, significant gaps remain. Limited resources and poor coordination between different authorities and levels of government constrain Indonesia’s Presidential Regulation. Thailand’s screening mechanism excludes stateless Rohingya, and applies only to those already in detention, creating inequalities between those inside and outside camps. And while the Bali Process Taskforce meets regularly, it has yet to deliver meaningful improvements to regional preparedness.
Partners such as Australia can play a critical role in bolstering regional responses. Supporting peer-learning initiatives such as the long-running Alternatives to Detention Platform helps policymakers improve their systems and coordinate more effectively. Regular dialogue through forums such as the Asia Dialogue on Forced Migration are another key avenue to facilitate improved regional preparedness and enhance policy. Increasing resettlement and refugee intake is also vital. This remains a sticking point among frontline countries, but Australia can encourage others to follow suit by doing more to share responsibility, including by progressively lifting the resettlement intake to 27,000 per year and making complementary pathways additional to this intake.
The risk of another crisis is growing. Ongoing civil war in Myanmar, the fallout from April’s earthquake, and worsening conditions in camps in Cox’s Bazar are pushing more people to flee. Last year saw an 80 per cent increase in refugees and migrants attempting to cross the Andaman Sea, and 646 were reported dead or missing – the highest toll since 2014. Just this month UNHCR has reported an estimated 427 Rohingya have perished at sea after two boats overturned off the coast of Myanmar. The withdrawal of US support following the Trump administration aid cuts will only deepen regional vulnerabilities.
Boat movements tend to peak during the dry season from November to January, patterns now complicated further by climate change. That makes the coming months crucial. Countries across the region – not just those receiving arrivals – must act now. Australia, New Zealand, and other nations throughout the region should use the multilateral forums available to help strengthen regional preparedness before another crisis unfolds.
There are several key opportunities on the horizon to advance this important conversation. The High-Level Rohingya Conference planned for September is a chance to demonstrate renewed commitment to displaced communities and push for increased resettlement. The ASEAN Summit later this month presents another moment to strengthen the bloc’s forced migration architecture, especially as Malaysia works behind the scenes to broker progress on the Myanmar crisis. And the upcoming Bali Process Ministerial Conference is a critical forum to move from rhetoric to real reform that can save lives at sea.
A decade on, the Andaman Sea crisis still casts a long shadow. What happens next will show whether the region has truly learned its lesson – or is doomed to repeat it.
