Faced with an impasse over its bid to host COP31 next year in partnership with the Pacific, Australia opted this week to make a deal with Türkiye. This outcome will disappoint many but nonetheless could promise more ambitious climate diplomacy in 2026. Türkiye will host COP31, Australia’s Climate Minister Chris Bowen will preside over negotiations, and a lead-up meeting will be held in the Pacific.
We don’t yet know how the government envisages this novel arrangement will work. The government had ruled out a shared presidency, but this appears to be a form of it. Bowen has mentioned his leadership of negotiations and a Turkish presidency of the COP. How will Australian negotiators and diplomats work with Türkiye and Pacific countries? The danger is an unworkable arrangement, compounding an already hard task.
The government would have struggled to deliver the proposed COP summit in Adelaide and meet all the expectations.
Australia had the advantage of near-unanimous support in its UN regional group responsible for deciding the hosting rights for next year’s climate summit but no means to force a resolution. Türkiye remained determined. Without compromise the climate process would have been damaged and leaderless. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declared in recent days that Australia would not force the issue to crisis point or let it go unresolved – much to the government’s credit.
Instead, Bowen will steer COP31 negotiations in 2026 at a COP in Türkiye. Australians have not often served in such prominent global roles. Bowen comes to it with a strong reputation and connections from his facilitation efforts in past COPs. This will be a demanding job which will require much of his time and attention in 2026. Britain’s Alok Sharma, as president of COP26, visited more than 50 countries in the lead-up to the 2021 meeting in Glasgow.
A lead-up meeting in the Pacific provides creative opportunity. This is where there is space to build an agenda which amplifies Pacific voices and delivers outcomes – as promised by the government. Relieved of larger burdens, Australia will have more capacity to make this deliver and it ought to be the focus.
Indeed, there will be relief in many quarters in Canberra. The prospect of hosting the world’s largest diplomatic event with only a year to prepare was daunting. In truth, two years were needed, and the government would have struggled to deliver the proposed COP summit in Adelaide and meet all the expectations. Avoiding the fiscal cost will be welcome, too.
Doubtless, opportunities have also been lost: for Adelaide in particular, for Australia and the Pacific to lead a broad set of global initiatives, and to harness trade and investment to drive Australia’s transition. Pacific disappointment may be sharpest, although the government has consulted closely with Pacific neighbours at every step.
