Leaders plenary on 6 November 2025 ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP30 (Antonio Scorza/COP30)

The COP30 and COP31 summits must be a display of southern hemisphere stewardship

Brazil hosts but Australia must prove its climate credentials – leadership is earned through action, not hosting rights.

Izabela Pereira Watts

7 November 20254 min read

Climate talks in Brazil have begun with the high-level COP30 general plenary and the attendance of more than 40 world leaders. The United Nations Climate Change Conference COP30 summit, scheduled to take place from 10-21 November, is set against the backdrop of intensifying climate impacts, geopolitical fragmentation, and a widening gap between climate ambition and action. For Australia, a fellow southern hemisphere power with parallel environmental vulnerabilities and regional responsibilities, COP30 is not just Brazil’s chance to shine. It can also be an Australian moment.

Brazil’s choice to host the talks in Belém, a gateway to the Amazon, the world’s largest tropical rainforest and a critical carbon sink, underscores the urgency. It places the preservation of tropical forests, vital to global climate stability, at the heart of the political agenda. Amid many strategies, Brazil will launch the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a fund aiming to raise over US$125 billion to reward countries that protect their forests.

For Australians, the Amazon may seem distant, but the parallels with Brazil are striking. Both nations are vast, resource-rich democracies in the southern hemisphere. Both are custodians of globally significant ecosystems. From the Amazon to the Great Barrier Reef, both countries face acute climate risks, including bushfires, droughts, floods, and biodiversity loss. They are “ecological kin” with global stakes: regional powers with shared vulnerabilities and transformative potential.

Both countries are engaging in climate diplomacy to elevate the voices of the Global South.

These ecosystems are not merely national treasures. They are global commons. The Amazon regulates rainfall across continents. The Great Barrier Reef is a bellwether for ocean health. Their preservation is not just a moral imperative. It is a planetary necessity.

Brazil and Australia also share a dual identity: regional anchors in Latin America and the Indo-Pacific, respectively, and aspirant middle powers on the global stage. Their climate choices reverberate beyond their borders. Brazil’s stewardship of the Amazon affects rainfall patterns as far as southern Africa. Australia’s energy policies shape the climate resilience of Pacific Island nations, whose very survival hinges on global temperature trajectories.

Map showing sea surface temperatures in March, 2022 near the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. The darker red colors indicate an in increase in sea surface temperature (NASA)

COP30 goes beyond being a test of middle power diplomacy. Australia’s bid to co-host COP31 in June 2026 with Pacific Island nations underscores its desire to reclaim climate leadership after a decade of policy paralysis. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has framed climate change as an “existential threat” in stark contrast to the climate denialism resurging in the United States. Hosting COP31 would be Australia’s largest diplomatic summit ever: a chance to showcase its clean energy transition and amplify Pacific voices.

Nevertheless, leadership is not conferred solely by hosting. It must be earned through follow-up actions. Australia’s updated 2035 emissions target, expected soon, will be scrutinized at COP30. The Climate Change Authority has recommended a 65–75% reduction below 2005 levels, but anything less risks undermining Australia’s credibility. As the world gathers in Belém, Australia must demonstrate that it is not merely a future host, but a responsible actor. This is an opportunity to move from spectatorship to leadership.

With shared opportunities also come shared challenges. Brazil and Australia face the dilemma of how to reconcile economic reliance on extractive industries with the imperative to decarbonise. In Brazil, the 10th-largest economy in the world, agribusiness and deforestation continue to be major drivers of emissions. In Australia, the 13th-largest economy in the world, coal and gas exports continue to be the dominant sources of revenue. Yet both countries are also poised to lead in the green economy. Brazil’s historical biofuels and hydropower expertise, and Australia’s potential in green hydrogen and critical minerals, position them as key players in the global energy transition.

Moreover, both countries are engaging in climate diplomacy to elevate the voices of the Global South. Brazil is pushing for reforms to climate finance mechanisms to serve vulnerable nations better. Australia has pledged more than $150 million to Pacific climate resilience and rejoined the Green Climate Fund. These moves reflect a shared understanding: climate justice, Pacific resilience, and Global South equity are inseparable from geopolitical stability.

COP30 and COP31 are calls for southern hemisphere stewardship. Climate action is increasingly polarised. The US retreat under Trump exemplifies this. Moreover, the internal divisions of the European Union resulted in arriving in Belém with a diluted climate deal that allows the use of foreign carbon credits and delays the launch of its carbon market. It means that Brazil and Australia have a unique opportunity that goes hand in hand with the 80th anniversary of their bilateral diplomatic relationship. As southern hemisphere democracies with global reach, the timing offers a unique momentum to forge a new axis of climate leadership rooted in equity, resilience, and regional solidarity.

Thus, COP30 is not just Brazil’s “window to the world” (“Janela para o mundo”) as repeatedly expressed by Lula. It is a mirror for Australia.

About the author

Izabela Pereira Watts

Dr Izabela Pereira Watts is a former UN peacekeeper, multi-award winner, with an extensive career of 20 years of experience and a robust aptitude for international security and international development cooperation.

Topics

Climate & environment