Asia, explained.
Distinguishable? (Jessica Gray/Defence Imagery)
In fact, there’s a strong case to be made that Australia’s relationships with regional countries have never been better.
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Does Australia’s US alliance doom our Asian relationships to fail?Does Australia’s US alliance doom our Asian relationships to fail?
Hugh White’s most recent contribution to Australia’s strategic debate, “Hard New World: Our Post-American Future”, published in Quarterly Essay, ventilates a series of profound questions about the challenging world facing Australia.
One aspect of White’s argument that struck me as worthy of debate is whether he is right that because Australia conceives of its regional relationships as a “zero-sum contest between America and China for regional primacy”, it cannot build the relationships it needs for a post-American future.
Just as Australia is facing a more uncertain outlook in its major power relationships, so too are countries across Asia looking to diversify their relationships.
I’ve previously agreed with this to some extent, arguing that strategic divergence in geopolitical worldview is the greatest challenge for Australia in Southeast Asia. Rahman Yaacob and I also noted that Australia’s Defence Cooperation Agreement with Indonesia shouldn’t be read as heralding shared priorities on regional security issues.
But in my correspondence about White’s latest essay, published last month, I argued that he is too downbeat about the state of Australia’s relationships – not just with Southeast Asia, but a range of Indo-Pacific powers, including India and Japan. He also downplays the progress that Australia has made in establishing new forms of cooperation in the Pacific. In fact, at the level of government-to-government relations, there’s a strong case to be made that Australia’s relationships with regional countries have never been better. Certainly, they are marked by fewer crises and irritants. In the case of Indonesia, it’s now ten years since the last major crisis.
What explains this phenomenon? Clever and focused diplomacy? Perhaps in part, but the explanation must be deeper. Just as Australia is facing a more uncertain outlook in its major power relationships, so too are countries across Asia looking to diversify their relationships. This doesn’t amount to collective balancing against China, but it might suggest that Australia is not as isolated or poorly prepared for a multipolar future as White suggests.
You can read my correspondence, and White’s response, in the latest issue of Quarterly Essay.
About the author
Susannah Patton
Susannah Patton is Director, Asia Engagement at RMIT and a Nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute.
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