Diplomacy, explained.
Exhaustion is setting in at the climate change talks in Azerbaijan (Kiara Worth/UN Climate Change)
The best hope is that the final hours are following a predictable pattern of brinkmanship.
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End game at COP29: Green talks in the “Blue Zone”End game at COP29: Green talks in the “Blue Zone”
After almost two weeks of negotiations, it’s end game at COP29, the annual UN climate summit taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan. I arrived earlier this week and have been tracking developments within the “Blue Zone” of the conference venue, where country negotiators are trying to hammer out a new deal on financial assistance for poor and climate-vulnerable countries.
While the impacts of Donald Trump’s election initially dominated much attention here, at least overtly, most countries appear to be pushing ahead with their existing negotiating positions and net zero transition plans. Apart from Argentina boycotting the COP, we haven’t seen any obvious backsliding as a result of the US election. In fact, the US delegation has carried on negotiating as if it were business as usual.
The United Kingdom and Brazil have also led the charge in ratcheting up their national emissions reduction pledges, setting an example for the rest of the world. But it’s still too early to tell how Trump’s return will trickle through national polities and affect climate ambition in the months and years ahead.
Climate Minister Chris Bowen has remained active and visible as the co-chair of central negotiations in the conference, and has continued to take an ambitious tone on the international stage: “Two years I told you Australia was back,” Bowen proclaimed confidently, “but this year I am here to tell you how Australia is accelerating our transformation”.
COPs usually follow a similar rhythm in their final stages – posturing and brinkmanship, followed by almost certain failure and despair, followed by compromise, clever diplomacy, and ultimately, consensus.
But there has been no resolution to the standoff between Australia and Türkiye in seeking to host COP31 in 2026. If anything, the Turks have only dug in further after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated his wish to host.
On Thursday, after issuing a draft outcome text, Azerbaijan as COP president convened a “Qurultay” assembly of environment ministers and lead negotiators representing almost 200 countries, and asked them to put their cards on the table.
The response was bleak. The president’s text was almost universally blasted as unbalanced and unacceptable, but for very different reasons.
Peoples Plenary (Kiara Worth/UN Climate Change)
On the central deliverable of this summit, developing countries decried the absence in the draft text of a concrete financing target to help them transition their economies and adapt to climate change. This reflects a wide gap between major negotiating blocs: developing countries are asking for a staggering US$1.3 trillion annually, while developed countries have largely avoided specifying a dollar figure until other matters are resolved, though the European Union informally floated $200 billion. Fair to say, there’s still some haggling to be done.
Developed countries, meanwhile, have been pushing to “expand the donor base” – read getting wealthy economies such as China, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore, for example, which are still technically categorised as “developing” in the UN framework, to chip into the climate finance pot. This is highly contentious; large emerging economies have rejected any formal requirements on them to contribute money, even if some of them are already channelling loans or aid to poorer countries in practice.
Many countries also slammed the president’s text for watering down significant commitments made at last year’s summit in Dubai, including the historic call for the world to “transition away from fossil fuels”. That commitment was already a compromise – many, including climate vulnerable island nations, last year had pushed for a stronger pledge. But this year, the Arab Group, led by Saudi Arabia, is attempting to remove the reference altogether – at the Qurultay, their negotiator openly said they “will not accept any text that targets any specific sectors, including fossil fuels”.
Many delegates walked out of the Qurultay disillusioned and exhausted. The conference is due to finish today, though wide gaps remain on almost all key deliverables. But as one former senior diplomat and veteran UN climate negotiator reminded me, COPs usually follow a similar rhythm in their final stages – posturing and brinkmanship, followed by almost certain failure and despair, followed by compromise, clever diplomacy, and ultimately, consensus.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres flew back in Baku on Thursday and will no doubt be busy shuttling between major parties (Kiara Worth/UN Climate Change)
This is not assured – COPs have failed before, and much depends on the diplomatic skill of the Presidency and its ability to garner the trust of the parties. This year, observers have raised doubts that Azerbaijan has what it takes: Azerbaijan is relatively inexperienced in climate diplomacy, and its hosting has been plagued by questions about the country’s record on oil and gas and human rights. But neither is this new – last year, controversies around the UAE presidency’s dual role as head of one the world’s largest oil companies also dogged his efforts. Indeed, many have asked why the world keeps placing its climate hopes in the hands of petrostates.
Reflecting the scale of the diplomatic wrangling required, UN Secretary-General António Guterres flew back to Baku on Thursday and will no doubt be busy shuttling between major parties. Exhaustion is setting in. It is quieter in the Blue Zone as countries pack up their pavilions, and thousands of activists and delegates start to head home.
The negotiators who remain are preparing for some long nights ahead.
About the author
Ryan Neelam
Ryan Neelam was Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute. He led the flagship annual Lowy Institute Poll, was project director for the Global Diplomacy Index, and wrote about climate diplomacy and multilateral policy.
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