The midterm poll in May for members of the Philippine Congress composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives is shaping as the most consequential in the country’s history. Traditionally, midterm elections are either a manifestation of support or a repudiation of the current administration. However, this year’s event not only judges President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s government but also determines the political survival of Vice-President Sara Duterte. It will be a showcase of the ongoing hostility between the country’s two most prominent political families.
Rewind to 2022, and election of Marcos and Duterte on a joint ticket was no surprise. Under their UniTeam slogan, Marcos’ funding and Duterte’s popularity were instrumental in their landslide victory. As scions of the country’s autocratic leaders, each carry their father’s legacy of strong-man rule, Ferdinand Marcos Sr in the 1980s, and Rodrigo Duterte after 2016. This style of leadership continues to appeal to the Filipino masses.
Yet it was also obvious then that their “unity” was a political ploy just to get elected, devoid of shared principles, policies, and platforms. Once dubbed as a “marriage made in heaven”, Marcos and Duterte’s political tandem is now playing out as a messy divorce.
The rift started when Marcos appointed Duterte to lead the Department of Education, despite her preference to head that of National Defence. Duterte also faced several charges against her office’s misuse of confidential and intelligence funds, which she regarded as a plot by Marcos’ allies. In response, Duterte declared imagining beheading Marcos and digging up his dictator father’s body to throw it into the West Philippine Sea. Her father also accused Marcos of being a drug addict, while her brother Sebastian called on him to resign.
Marcos has taken on a more combative stance, shedding his earlier restraint towards the Dutertes.
This political enmity saw its turning point when Duterte publicly threatened to assassinate the Marcoses: “I have talked to a person. I said, if I get killed, go kill Marcos, the First Lady, and the House Speaker”. Such threats, along with charges of graft and corruption, led to Duterte’s impeachment in the House of Representatives, led by Marcos’ cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez. Duterte will be tried in the Senate, which will likely take place after the midterm elections.
Thus, the upcoming poll is critical. Duterte’s political fate hinges on its outcome. The 12 newly elected senators, comprising half of the 24-member body, will act as judges during Duterte’s impeachment trial. If Duterte is impeached, she will not be able to run for any public office, putting an end to her presidential ambition. If Duterte is absolved, she and her family will continue to criticise and undermine Marcos’ government. She will also reinforce her political base to claim the presidency that she deemed was “mine already in 2022 but just gave it away”. Keeping in mind Duterte as the presidential frontrunner for 2028, many senator-judges will vote, not only based on their allegiance to either side, but also whether their political interests will benefit from a future Duterte presidency.
Meanwhile, the Marcoses are taking tough political offensives to neutralise Duterte’s popularity. For Marcos and his family, the prospect of another Duterte presidency under Sara is a political nightmare, given her family’s penchant for unlawful vengeance and violent retributions. Thus, Marcos and his allies are continuing with the investigations on the mishandling of her office’s budget, which resulted in her declining performance and trust ratings. They are also scrutinising the past Duterte administration’s bloody war on drugs and police corruption during its operations, while allowing the International Criminal Court to investigate extra-judicial killings. Marcos’ administration also continues to court public opinion by implementing a tougher stance against China’s maritime incursions in the West Philippine Sea, which is consistently supported by a majority of Filipinos, unlike Duterte’s defeatist policy towards China.
Marcos has also taken on a more combative stance, shedding his earlier restraint towards the Dutertes. When the senior Duterte suggested killing senators in a bomb blast to make room for his preferred senatorial candidates, Marcos hit back: “Maybe their situation is hopeless that they will resort to killing senators. Well, that’s the problem for a person whose only solution to all problems is to kill Filipinos.”
The 2025 midterm elections will become the battleground shaping the 2028 presidential race. It will continue to influence Philippine politics and potentially its foreign policy as this high-stakes family feud plays out with the Marcoses’ goal to retain power and the Dutertes’ bid to regain it. Amid this power struggle, the nation continues to suffer from a politically distracted government and inefficient governance dominated by self-serving political dynasties. Whichever family proclaims victory, Filipinos remain the ultimate losers.
