French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to Southeast Asia – Vietnam, Indonesia, and culminating in a landmark address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore – offered a glimpse into France’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy as well as his broader geopolitical vision.
As the first European head of state to deliver the keynote speech at Asia’s premier security forum, Macron seized the opportunity to present France as a constructive power, one committed to upholding international law, wary of great power polarisation, and aligned with the region’s aspirations for sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
The core message was that Europe and Asia share similar challenges: they face common threats from revisionist powers that reject international law and use coercion. He presented the two theatres as closely interrelated. The Ukraine war has global stakes – it tests the world order, sovereignty, and non-proliferation, with direct implications for Asia through growing Russia-China-North Korea ties.
Seizing the strategic moment
To resist the “sphere of coercions” carried out by illiberal hegemonic powers, Macron called for a coalition of independence, grounding his appeal to strategic autonomy in both Asian history and strategic culture, and a Gaullist legacy. He invoked the memory of the 1955 Bandung Conference and General Charles de Gaulle’s 1966 Phnom Penh speech that positioned France as a partner for countries striving to avoid alignment with major blocs.
France’s careful balancing act – at times criticised for its ambiguity – is largely welcomed in the region. Macron combines frank criticism of China with a commitment to dialogue. In May, China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun met his French counterpart in Paris, even as Dong’s absence from the Shangri-La Dialogue drew widespread attention.
However, this attempt to propose a “third way” between rival blocs should come with a reality-check. The waning influence of Europe in Asia is clear, suffering from perceptions of double-standards, institutional complexities and wavering commitment to the region.
Macron hammered the theme that restoring credibility requires rejecting double standards in addressing the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and applying international norms consistently across crises. France’s joint initiative with Saudi Arabia to host a conference in New York on 18 June – aimed at reviving momentum for recognising a Palestinian State – was endorsed and praised by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.
Southeast Asia, home to growing defence budgets and investments, has become a springboard for French arms exports.
While US Secretary of Defence Hegseth’s remarks at Shangri-La emphasised the need to restore the credibility of deterrence, Macron, in contrast, stressed the importance of rebuilding European influence in the region through a “positive alliance.”
Seizing economic moment
This outreach also reflects a recognition that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is vital to Europe’s – and France’s – economic and security future. The organisation encompasses strategic maritime routes crucial for global trade and provides resources essential for Europe’s green and digital transitions. At the Indo-Pacific level, Macron called for a trade agreement between the European Union and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to help shape global standards for trade, labour, and the environment.
For France, following the setback after Australia cancelled a major submarine deal in favour of nuclear-powered boats under the “AUKUS” pacts in 2021, Southeast Asia, home to growing defence budgets and investments, has become a springboard for arms exports. Several major contracts have been signed with Indonesia – notably the purchase of 42 Dassault Rafale fighter jets in 2022 and two Scorpène-class submarines. More deals are expected following Macron’s invitation to Prabowo to attend Bastille Day celebrations. Beyond arms sales, the two countries are expanding cooperation in education, infrastructure, and cultural exchanges – building long-term bonds of trust.
In Vietnam, France has expanded its footprint through several infrastructure and energy projects. A notable agreement includes the sale of 20 Airbus A330-900 aircraft to VietJet, collaboration on renewable energy projects, as well as the potential revival of Vietnam's nuclear energy program. France and Singapore also announced new collaboration on AI and quantum computing.
Gaps in vision
Despite the strong rhetorical alignment on offering a third way, Macron’s vision still lacks operational clarity. While the French President stressed the need for European-Asian cooperation, he offered little detail into what France’s updated Indo-Pacific strategy, set to be released in the coming weeks, will actually encompass. Nor did he explain how France intends to maintain its efforts in the region amid an ongoing war in Europe and with the United States retreating.
His fleeting reference to French overseas territories fell short, especially in light of last year’s violent unrest in New Caledonia. Difficult negotiations are still underway over its future institutional status, including a possible association agreement.
While Macron made a strong appeal to ASEAN, the Pacific Island Countries – which also value strategic autonomy – were notably absent from his speech. France is expected to refocus attention on the Pacific later this month as it hosts the third UN Ocean Conference in Nice, offering an opportunity to reaffirm its commitments to maritime security, climate action, and Pacific partnerships.
Macron’s ambition to build a “third way” as a rules-based, non-aligned, and cooperative order has intuitive appeal in Southeast Asia. But it now requires activation. For this vision to move beyond rhetoric, France must demonstrate sustained regional engagement, concrete projects and actionable initiatives.
