Europe, explained.
Nicuşor Dan greets his supporters in Bucharest, Romania (Andrei Pungovschi/Getty Images)
Nicuşor Dan’s decisive win over a nationalist challenger could mark a broader European trend away from extremist gains.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
How Romania defied Putin’s interference to choose democracy over divisionHow Romania defied Putin’s interference to choose democracy over division
After months of political uncertainty, Romania’s presidential election on 18 May delivered a euphoric victory for the pro-European and pro-democracy supporters of centrist candidate Nicuşor Dan, the 55-year-old mayor of Bucharest. It has sent a clear message that the largest Balkan state, located south of Ukraine and on the frontline of tensions with Russia, will continue its important role in the European Union as well as NATO.
In the second polling, Dan, who stood as an independent, took 54 per cent of votes. In doing so, Dan dramatically deflated weeks of hyperbolic predictions by the opposing candidate, George Simion, leader of the right-wing Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) Party. Having lead in the first round of polling on 4 May, Simion lagged with 46 per cent in the final run-off.
“Romania begins a new chapter and it needs every one of you,” Dan declared to a jubilant crowd thronging Bucharest’s elegant boulevard. “We have a Romania to build together, regardless of political choices.” Romanian flags sailed above the cheers, while some supporters held an oversized EU flag aloft in defiance.
Romania’s experience is a counterpoint to the dire warnings about democracy’s decline and the march of the populists.
Cristina Corduneanu-Huci, a close observer of local politics and an Associate Professor at the Central European University, noted that voters were presented with a sharp choice. “Not only on everyday policy issues, but on the general direction and orientation of the country for years to come: West versus East, pro-Europe versus Euroscepticism, Trumpist conservatism versus centrism/liberalism, pro-Ukraine versus Russia-sympathetic.” This, Corduneanu-Huci said, raised the electoral stakes significantly. A historically large turnout saw almost two-thirds of the electorate vote in the second round. She also credited Dan’s campaign performance. “His educational background, soft-spoken personality, civil society roots and credible anti-corruption background stood in contrast to Simion’s controversial past, Trump-style irreverent speech and blatant nativism.”
Romania’s experience is also a counterpoint to the dire warnings about democracy’s decline and the march of the populists. The May poll was a rerun. The initial election in November last year was annulled by the country’s Constitutional Court following state intelligence reports of Russian interference through social media campaigns that artificially boosted the first-round win by Eurosceptic, pro-Russian, Calin Georgescu. He was banned from running in this month’s election, with 38-year-old Simion instead filling his shoes.
A jubilant crowd in Bucharest greeted the election result (Alexandra Corcode/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Romania, located strategically between central Europe, Ukraine and the Black Sea, had a long road to democracy. After decades of Soviet-backed rule, its last Communist leader, Nicolae Ceaușescu, was overthrown in 1989. After its democratic transition, Romania joined NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007.
But the past 36 years have not been easy. Economic uncertainty, inequality, the cost-of-living crisis and anger about corruption and nepotism exacerbated deep public dissatisfaction with the political status quo.
Simion, who is Vice President of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, pledged government and tax reforms. He is also a Eurosceptic who wanted to end support for Ukraine. His controversial statements about Ukraine and Moldova, another neighbouring country pressured by Moscow, have led him to being banned from entering both. In contrast, Dan, a mathematician with a strong civic legacy of campaigning against corruption and for heritage preservation, had developed a rapport with ordinary citizens. He is committed to strengthening Romania’s place in the EU, backing Ukraine and enacting fiscal reforms.
While Simion refused to accept defeat, his appeal against the election result was legally rejected last week. Now sworn in as President, Dan plans to form a coalition government in the coming weeks.
And, fast on the heels of Romania’s outcome, results of the first voting round in Poland’s presidential election, also held on 18 May, show a similar trend. Warsaw’s liberal Mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, who campaigned to strengthen democratic institutions and reaffirm support for Ukraine, won by a slim margin against nationalist conservative opponent, Karol Nawrocki.
Both elections signal a divergence from the recent gains for far-Right political parties in European elections. Last year, for instance, the Dutch far-Right Freedom Party formed a government in the Netherlands, the pro-Russian Georgian Dream Party won another term in power in Georgia and, in Germany, the hardline Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party prevailed in the Thuringia state election.
Far-Right governments feature in seven of 27 EU member states, including Netherlands, Hungary, Italy and Czech Republic. Yet Corduneanu-Huci sees a counter-wave. “There have been active and strong trend reversals coming from both electoral counter reactions and from the unwillingness of mainstream political parties to form governing coalitions with far-Right parties,” she said.
It’s good news for the EU and Ukraine. “I want to underline that the war in Ukraine is essential for the security of Romania and Moldova,” Dan said in April in the run-up to the vote. Romania has provided generous humanitarian support to millions of Ukrainian refugees and extensive military aid to Ukraine, while NATO is building its largest European military base in Romania’s southeast.
But the new President will also have to grapple with serious domestic issues, such as regaining public trust in the political class and demonstrating that his leadership will make a real difference to people’s lives.
About the author
Catherine Wilson
Catherine Wilson is a freelance journalist and correspondent reporting on the Pacific Islands region for the international media.
Topics
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
