Indonesia has taken a decisive step in advocating Papua New Guinea’s entry into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In May, President Prabowo Subianto formally proposed and endorsed PNG’s membership, emphasising that its inclusion would “expand networks of cooperation and strengthen regional resilience”. He also highlighted that, geographically, PNG is Indonesia’s immediate neighbour, sharing a direct border in the east, making its membership both natural and strategic. This reflects Jakarta’s active role in shaping ASEAN’s future architecture and consolidating its geopolitical influence across the Asia–Pacific.
Indonesia’s support for PNG makes sense. PNG shares a land border with Indonesia’s Papua provinces and maritime boundaries with ASEAN countries. Its inclusion would not only expand ASEAN’s geographic footprint into the Pacific but also reinforce Jakarta’s role as the bridge between the two regions. Economically, PNG’s reserves of natural gas, fisheries, and minerals complement ASEAN markets, while its membership would reshape ASEAN’s political identity from a Southeast Asian to a broader Asia–Pacific organisation.
For ASEAN, enlargement has always been more than a numbers game. Its previous expansions, adding Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia, bolstered the bloc’s credibility as the region’s central economic and security platform. With Timor-Leste’s admission in principle, PNG emerges as the next natural candidate.
However, PNG’s accession carries sensitivities, most critically the issue of West Papua. Support for Papuan independence has featured within the Melanesian Spearhead Group, risking tension with Indonesia. Nevertheless, with ASEAN’s principle of non-interference and Indonesia's leadership, these challenges could be contained to preserve regional unity.
Indonesia’s stance remains firm. In August 2023, Indonesian diplomats staged a walkout at the Melanesian Spearhead Group when West Papuan separatist leader Benny Wenda was given the floor, rejecting efforts to elevate the United Liberation Movement for West Papua to formal membership status. This and other diplomatic protests highlighted Jakarta’s red lines while reinforcing that the Papua issue is a matter of domestic sovereignty, not regional bargaining. Such assertive responses demonstrate Indonesia’s willingness to defend its position internationally, a posture it would likely carry into ASEAN deliberations should PNG join the bloc.
To ensure that the Pacific dimension of regional politics does not fall entirely under the sway of dominant external powers such as the United States and China, ASEAN, with Indonesia at its core, could take leadership of Pacific engagement.
Under Prabowo’s leadership, Indonesia continues a decentralising vision initiated under his predecessor, ensuring eastern regions such as Papua receive greater attention. Prabowo frequently stresses sovereignty alongside diplomacy, famously saying, “A thousand friends are too few; one enemy is too many.” By positioning PNG as both neighbour and partner, Indonesia may even shift the West Papua issue from a potential point of friction into a framework for regional collaboration.
Timor-Leste’s slower accession process highlights the administrative and integration challenges smaller states face. PNG, while facing governance hurdles, brings wider value. With ASEAN support, and especially Indonesia’s guidance in institution-building, PNG could contribute meaningfully to the bloc’s agenda. Its size, resources, and geographic position mean that successful integration would not only benefit PNG itself but also reinforce ASEAN’s regional centrality under Indonesia’s leadership.
Yet PNG’s candidacy also raises questions about institutional capacity. Despite its resource wealth, the country faces persistent governance challenges, with weak state institutions, corruption, and recurring political instability, which together undermine effective policymaking. According to the World Bank, PNG’s per capita income remains among the lowest in the Asia–Pacific, while its human development indicators lag significantly behind ASEAN averages. These structural gaps mean that ASEAN entry would require not only political will but also extensive technical assistance. For Jakarta, this presents an opportunity to lead capacity-building initiatives, positioning Indonesia not just as a sponsor of PNG’s accession but as its mentor in regional integration.
To ensure that the Pacific dimension of regional politics does not fall entirely under the sway of dominant external powers such as the United States and China, ASEAN, with Indonesia at its core, could take leadership of Pacific engagement. By anchoring PNG within ASEAN, Jakarta positions itself not only as a guardian of regional sovereignty but also as the principal architect of Asia–Pacific connectivity.
Sceptics warn that ASEAN might overstretch. Yet history shows ASEAN has navigated diversity before; its earlier expansions were once seen as risky but ultimately strengthened the bloc. PNG’s membership, if managed carefully, could reinforce ASEAN’s cohesion under Indonesian leadership. Jakarta’s proven ability to balance competing interests makes it uniquely placed to guide this process. Rather than diluting ASEAN, PNG’s accession could showcase Indonesia’s role as the stabilising force that keeps the bloc relevant in a shifting Indo-Pacific landscape.
