A group of laughing North Korean soldiers (Kim Won-jin/AFP via Getty Images)

The current situation in South Korea would seemingly provide the North with the best quality propaganda material in years (Kim Won-jin/AFP via Getty Images)

Korean turmoil: What the North thinks looking South

A “main enemy” suffering disarray at home and ridicule from abroad, Pyongyang might suddenly warm to Yoon Suk-yeol…

Gabriela Bernal

11 December 20243 min read

While North Korea has yet to respond to the ongoing turmoil in the South, it’s a “Hermit Kingdom” in name only – Pyongyang will be watching with rapt attention.

The declaration of martial law last week by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol backfired spectacularly, lasting less than six hours and resulting in widespread demands for the president’s impeachment. The resulting chaos is all great news to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who declared South Korea his country’s “main enemy” earlier this year after ending a decades-long pro-unification policy line. Pyongyang has been extremely critical of the Yoon administration since he narrowly won the presidential election in 2022, with North Korean state media regularly reporting on anti-Yoon protests for more than a year.

The current situation would seemingly provide the North with the best quality propaganda material in years. North Korea gleefully drew attention to the 2016-17 candlelight protests calling for former president Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, with state media covering the story in detail for months. Pyongyang could do the same this time around, using the disarray in the South to taint the positive image many in the North hold of the “democratic” South and to instead emphasise the superiority of the North Korean system and its leadership.

But so far, North Korea has chosen not to.

The martial law declaration also tarnishes South Korea’s image abroad, negatively affecting – at least the current government’s – diplomatic reputation in the international community. While the world is used to criticising the North for its authoritarian policies and system, all eyes are now on Seoul and the risk of a return to the era of dictators like Park Chung-hee and Chun Doo-hwan.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol visiting the Navy Special Warfare Flotilla in Jinhae, Gyeongsangnam-do Province, March 2023 (Kang Min Seok/Republic of Korea/Flickr)

Amidst all the disarray, Pyongyang seems to be relishing greater freedom to continue strengthening its relations with Russia. Talk of South Korea providing Ukraine with any kind of lethal aid has subsided. North Korea and Russia may seek to exploit the situation and double down on military cooperation with little fear of South Korean intervention.

Another reason why Yoon’s bizarre decision benefits the North is the blow it has dealt the alliance relationship with the United States. For a president who seemingly went all in with America from the start of his term, it came as a shock to Washington that they received no advance warning of Yoon’s impending move. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken “expressed deep concerns” after the declaration, while US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin cancelled plans to travel this week to South Korea.

For all his criticism of the North, Yoon has lowered himself to the level of authoritarian rulers like Kim.

The close relationship between the United States and South Korea has been one of the deepest thorns in Pyongyang’s side ever since the Korean War. As such, North Korea will welcome any development that could cause friction between the two. While the State Department has reiterated its commitment to its “ironclad” alliance with Seoul, Donald Trump could potentially shove South Korea to the side in favour of resuming direct negotiations with the North. This is the format Pyongyang has traditionally preferred. Unlike the Moon Jae-in government in power during Trump’s first term, the current Yoon administration would only diminish any chances of productive diplomatic talks, let alone a potential deal.

The silence from Pyongyang so far carries no guarantees for Seoul. North Korea has greatly increased its military activity along the inter-Korean border this year and could engage in greater provocations in the coming weeks, especially leading up to Trump’s inauguration. It could try and justify such acts by citing Yoon’s reasoning behind declaring martial law, which the South Korean president said was necessary due to the presence of “pro-North Korean elements” among the opposition.

So far, no evidence has emerged in support of Yoon’s claims. Conservative South Korean politicians have long used the North Korean threat as an excuse to demonise progressive opponents, both government officials and members of the public. Pyongyang could use what it sees as false accusations as a reason to ramp up military activity in the DMZ. In a worse scenario, it could opt for more extreme measures such as joint military drills with Russia.

For all his criticism of the North, Yoon has lowered himself to the level of authoritarian rulers like Kim. For Pyongyang, this will be an ironic but welcome development.

About the author

Gabriela Bernal

Dr Gabriela Bernal is a Korean affairs analyst based in Seoul, South Korea, and a Non-Resident Fellow at the European Centre for North Korean Studies.

Topics

North Korea South Korea