Brazil, explained.
For the Brazilian people, Lula is a symbol of working-class ideals and the collective good (Ricardo Stuckert/@LulaOficial)
Brazil’s election outcome tests whether a renewed Monroe Doctrine can survive Lula’s active non-alignment.
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Lula limits Trump’s Latin American ambition Lula limits Trump’s Latin American ambition
The weekend win (Opens in new window) by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is more than just a milestone for Brazil in rewarding an ideology of investing in social programs, South-South cooperation and defending democracy with a fourth term in power. Lula’s win is a turning point in US President Donald Trump’s pursuit of a renewed Monroe Doctrine (Opens in new window) to define US influence in Latin America.
Lula’s leadership will position Brazil as a major counterweight to US ambition in the region through principles of active non-alignment, sovereignty and social protection.
For the Brazilian people, Lula is a symbol of working-class ideals and the collective good. A former metalworker and union speaker, he rose through the ranks by mobilising workers during Figueiredo’s dictatorship, where he was also arrested under the National Security Law. During his first two terms as President, Brazil experienced an increase in employment, minimum wage, education levels and was subsequently removed (Opens in new window) from the United Nations hunger map by 2014. But the “most popular politician on Earth (Opens in new window)” became embroiled in controversy when his party was accused of buying votes in Congress for legislative support. Lula spent 580 days in prison for Operation Car Wash (Opens in new window), a bribery scheme involving the state oil company, Petrobras. Lula maintained his innocence and was annulled (Opens in new window) from all convictions in 2021.
Crowds on the street in Rio following the election result (Ricardo Stuckert/@LulaOficial)
Lula’s opponent in the latest election was Flávio Bolsonaro, an ultraconservative who led a 2026 campaign inherited from his father’s presidency. He aligned with evangelical voting blocs, proposed lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16, rejected climate change and supported tax cuts. Trump has maintained close ties with Flávio Bolsonaro and his father, Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president from 2019 to 2023 who is currently serving a 27-year sentence (Opens in new window) for leading a failed coup.
A Bolsonaro win would have been lauded by Trump, following a wave of conservative governments in Latin American countries including Argentina, El Salvador and Colombia. Since the Trump-endorsed Argentinean candidate Javier Milei took office in 2023, Argentina has largely aligned with US defence, economic and foreign policy. This includes purchasing US-backed fighter jets, providing direct line for the US treasury to intervene in the Argentinean peso, supporting US strikes in Iran and withdrawing from the World Health Organisation following Trump’s lead. Argentina is positioned to be Washington’s “partner of choice (Opens in new window)” in the region.
But Brazil is the most powerful country in Latin America. A socially left middle-power will become a counterweight to the region’s right-wing governments. Andre Pagliarini, assistant professor at Louisiana State University, predicts (Opens in new window) that under Lula, there will be more resistance to Trump’s pursuit of regional influence and US hostility towards China. The extent to which Lula will be able to counteract Trump’s politics will depend on his ability to work with a far-right majority in Congress while managing Brazil’s excessive public debt (Opens in new window) and insecurity.
Lula was one of the first leaders to publicly oppose (Opens in new window) the US operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January 2026. Lula advocated for a national Venezuelan election and will likely continue his strong support for Venezuelan sovereignty and the reduction of US influence in his upcoming term.
Brazil will not accept being “anyone’s backyard”, Lula proclaimed in his victory speech on Sunday night.
Brazil’s critical minerals were also at the top of Trump’s agenda. Brazil holds the world’s second-largest rare-earth reserves, but Lula declined Washington’s minerals alliance, opting to keep mineral processing and manufacturing local. Brazil will not accept being “anyone’s backyard (Opens in new window)”, Lula proclaimed in his victory speech on Sunday night. The loss of US foothold in Brazil is further reinforced by Lula’s intention to deepen geopolitical ties with BRICS, specifically China. Lula’s historic “active nonalignment (Opens in new window)” reveals that Brazil will continue to build ties with China in mutually beneficial sectors such as trade, investment and diplomacy.
As the streets of Brazil rejoice for their new President, Flávio Bolsonaro has rejected the result and is seeking an annulment of the vote after polling stations were kept open for two additional hours following requests from both parties. The President of the Electoral Court has stated (Opens in new window) that the extended voting hours did not impact the results, and it seems unlikely that a legal argument will be successful. Bolsonaro swiftly left (Opens in new window) Brazil for the United States, where US officials have planned to offer Bolsonaro and his family visas. Bolsonaro’s departure comes amid investigations into his links with money laundering and corruption schemes.
Ultimately, Lula’s win is not only a win for the Brazilian people, it shows that US dominance in Latin America is not inevitable. Trump will continue to assert US influence in the region, but the result proves socially progressive left-wing candidates can prevail. But Lula’s ability to translate this victory into a wider geopolitical shift will depend on whether he can tackle Brazil’s domestic issues while maintaining active non-alignment and a sovereign approach.
About the author
Isha Desai
Isha Desai is a writer, researcher and analyst based in Sydney. She works in social impact policy at Penguin Random House ANZ and represented Australia at the G20 Youth Summit in Washington DC in 2026.
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