Russia’s war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed how North Korea makes foreign currency. Pyongyang is estimated to have made US$175 million from foreign tourists in 2019. However, Russia’s purchases of North Korean war materiel have earned the country as much as US$5.5 billion since 2023. Russia hiring North Korean troops is projected to earn it up to US$572 million each year. Some observers even equated the economic impact of South Korea sending troops to South Vietnam, which fuelled the South’s “Miracle on the Han River” in the 1960s and 1970s, to North Korea sending troops to Russia.
However, North Korea sending troops to Russia is not without risks to its socio-political stability. Based on accounts from North Korean prisoners of war, North Korean troops and their families were not informed beforehand that they would be sent to fight Ukraine. These troops also received orders to commit suicide to avoid capture. Most of these troops are only sons, and their deaths were kept secret from their families back home to avoid having to publicise battlefield casualties. Improper commemorations to these fallen soldiers to maintain secrecy, which include abandoning their bodies in Russia, could fuel resentment towards the regime. As North Korea is sending a new wave of troops to make up for 4,000 casualties, the need to insulate the home front from the battlefront is even more urgent.
North Korea thus feared that foreign tourists would spread the news about these battlefield deaths and new waves of deployment among locals. North Korea sent a new wave of troops just as they welcomed back Western tourists. With families already relying on word-of-mouth to find out the whereabouts of their loved ones, the information that the non-Russian foreign tourists shared could quickly spread. This is not a far-fetched scenario, as one tourist from a recent trip to Rason wrote that he wished for “world peace” during a visit to North Korea-Russia Friendship House, and upset his host.
As the monetary gains of sending troops to Russia far outweigh the gains of welcoming back foreign tourists, North Korea made the choice to prioritise the former, even though it had invested in upgrading tourism facilities. The country did not foresee the war in Ukraine and Russia’s need for weapons and troops when it restarted work on building resorts in 2022. After the first month of reopening, the limits on foreign tourists to Rason were probably not enough to assure North Korean leaders that the involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war would be kept secret. Rason is also only five kilometres from Rajin Port, where foreign intelligence analysts suspect North Korean troops boarded their ships to travel to Dunai Port in Russia.
Western tourists had certainly shared information about the outside world with North Koreans before, but the information was not as damaging to the regime as that about North Korean soldiers in Russia. The more troops North Korea sends to Russia, the unlikelier it is going to reopen itself to foreign tourists.