Pakistan’s Saudi pact shifts South Asia’s security calculus

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia recently concluded a defence pact, marking a pivotal moment in South Asian security. It binds the security of the Indian subcontinent to that of the Gulf region, and comes just months after a four-day intense mini war between arch-rivals India and Pakistan in May this year.

For New Delhi, this agreement has direct strategic implications, particularly for the trajectory of India-Gulf ties, and for managing its tense co-existence with Pakistan. For Pakistan, the deal expands its diplomatic support in case of another round of hostilities with India, having also recalibrated its engagement with both China and the United States in recent months.

The security agreement with Saudi Arabia offers Pakistan three important markers. It significantly upgrades Pakistan’s long-standing defence and security cooperation with Saudi Arabia. It also rebalances the bilateral relationship, as for years Pakistan has been a recipient of crucial Saudi financial and material support to keep its economy afloat. Finally, it allows Pakistan to reclaim some lost influence in the Gulf region, as India-Gulf ties deepened in recent years, often at Pakistan’s expense.

In the months since the conflict with India in May, Pakistan’s goal has been to communicate its version of events and seek support as the country anticipates another crisis with India. With the Saudi deal, Pakistan is hedging, moving beyond its traditional strategic partner China. Islamabad and Riyadh are committing to treating “any aggression against either country” as an “act of aggression against both” which enhances Pakistan’s relative position vis-à-vis India.

The recent upturn in the Pakistan-US relationship, which includes exploring cooperation in sectors such as critical minerals and cryptocurrency, is also an effort to ensure a broader network of support. Pakistan has been at pains to praise the Trump administration for its brokering efforts in the May ceasefire, a claim India has consistently denied.

India will be concerned by both the timing and scope of the Saudi-Pakistan agreement. Immediately, it complicates India’s political calculus towards managing conflict with Pakistan. New Delhi would have to factor in potential diplomatic and financial support for Pakistan from the Gulf in its next stand-off with Pakistan, which could extend to assured oil supplies in the event of a prolonged India-Pakistan fight. It could also frustrate India’s campaign to “isolate” Pakistan across South Asia and the Gulf.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had invested significantly in upgrading India’s ties across the Gulf, particularly with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. These ties had allowed both Gulf nations to encourage dialogue between Pakistan and India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has played a crucial role in recent India-Pakistan crises. In February 2019, following an attack in Pulwama, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the subcontinent delayed Indian military strikes by over a week, providing a critical window for diplomacy. In April this year, Modi was in Saudi Arabia when the Pahalgam attack occurred, and he rushed back to India to deal with the crisis. When fighting with Pakistan erupted, the Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited both New Delhi and Islamabad in a bid to “de-escalate tensions” and urged dialogue. But New Delhi will no longer view Riyadh as a neutral party and now has the challenge to ensure that Saudi Arabia is cognizant of its “sensitivities” as its new security partnership with Pakistan matures.

As both India and Pakistan realign their regional postures, a new layer of complexity has been added to the South Asian security environment. It will not alter the military balance, but it will certainly influence the strategic environment in which both South Asian belligerents operate. For Pakistan, the defence pact with Saudi Arabia enhances its geopolitical profile while providing security reassurance amid tensions with India. For India, it presents a new diplomatic challenge that requires a recalibration of its regional strategy. And for Saudi Arabia, it is a test of its ability to navigate dual relationships as it deepens its security partnership with Pakistan and ensures that India remains a key customer of its oil.