Resilience diplomacy: The quiet contest shaping the Indo-Pacific

For middle powers, the ability to help partners withstand shocks may prove more valuable than raw strength.

Shameek Godara

31 October 20253 min read

In an era of rivalry, where fighter jets, tariffs, and algorithms are all instruments of power, the Indo-Pacific’s quiet contest may hinge not on who dominates, but on who endures. Resilience diplomacy – the art of helping partners withstand shocks – has become the region’s most underappreciated source of influence.

Resilience diplomacy is the practice of building diplomatic capacity to withstand and adapt to complex, interconnected crises. Think climate change, pandemics, and cyber threats. It involves developing a resilient mindset and workforce, fostering strategic partnerships, and integrating risk assessment into national policies to better navigate and respond to global shocks.

It is vital to understand that resilience diplomacy is not proposed as a singular doctrine to replace hard power tools. Rather, it is one of the many arms of statecraft that must be applied in concert. The concept of deterrence against conflict, which requires military capability to change an aggressor’s calculus, must be underwritten by diplomacy. Deterrence and reassurance must work together.

At the 2025 ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, resilience moved from a talking point to a firm strategic commitment. ASEAN leaders adopted the Kuala Lumpur Declaration on “our shared future” which, for the first time, embeds the goal of a “resilient, innovative, dynamic and people-centred” region, with explicit reference to collective responses to future shocks covering climate, digital connectivity, health security and supply-chain resilience.

Resilience diplomacy plays to the strengths of middle powers. It builds influence through trust, not dominance.

Resilience diplomacy isn’t about soft talk or slow projects. It’s about addressing what Southeast Asian policymakers actually worry about: climate shocks, cyber threats, and fragile supply chains. And increasingly, it’s becoming the measure of who can be trusted in tough times.

For example, the Australia–Vietnam Development Partnership Plan 2025–30 explicitly foregrounds resilience from climate adaptation to health system strengthening and sits alongside a package of Australian development commitments (Australia’s ODA allocation to Vietnam is $96.6 million for 2025–26).

Or take health security. The ASEAN Centre for Public Health Emergencies and Emerging Diseases (ACPHEED), built with $21 million from Australia, now serves as a regional hub for outbreak detection and response. This model of partnership not patronage has gained credibility since Covid-19, when dependence on single-source supply chains proved disastrous.

Then there is climate adaptation. Following record-breaking cyclones and wildfires, Australia has expanded its support for the Pacific Resilience Facility, now working alongside the Asian Development Bank to deliver climate-ready infrastructure and renewable energy solutions. The KINETIK initiative with Indonesia is blending finance and technology to accelerate a just energy transition an example of resilience diplomacy aligning development goals with strategic interests.

Digital resilience offers a further illustration. The Quad’s Cable Connectivity and Resilience Centre, announced at the Quad Leaders’ Summit in May 2023, is already working with ASEAN partners to secure undersea internet cables critical arteries of modern economies. In an age where data flows are more decisive than shipping routes, this is deterrence by design, not by destruction.

Resilience diplomacy plays to the strengths of middle powers. It builds influence through trust, not dominance. Australia’s Prospera program, a $145 million Australia–Indonesia partnership that places advisers and technical experts inside Indonesian ministries, shows how sustained, technical secondments can build deep institutional trust and deliver outcomes that one-off summits often cannot.

Crucially, resilience diplomacy blunts “economic coercion”. By helping partners diversify trade, improve transparency, and strengthen local governance, it reduces the leverage that larger powers can wield. Resilience, in this sense, is deterrence with a human face.

As great power rivalry sharpens, the ability to project stability may prove more valuable than projecting strength. The Indo-Pacific’s next decade will be shaped not by who builds more bases or signs more trade deals, but by who helps its neighbours weather the storm.

Resilience diplomacy won’t make headlines like submarines or tariffs. But it builds the connective tissue of regional trust, the kind that outlasts crises, leaders, and news cycles. In an age of rivalry, it may be the most credible power of all.

About the author

Shameek Godara

Shameek Godara is a Senior Associate in The Asia Group’s Australia practice, based in Canberra, where he supports clients on issues spanning national security, defence, and the energy and extractives sectors.

Topics

ASEAN Diplomacy Climate & environment Covid-19 Economy Cyber & technology