Asia, explained.
Diversity can obscure a shared sense of purpose (Elle Cosgrave/Unsplash)
The waters that connect the region matter more than the distances between its shores, and 2026 will test that principle.
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Rethinking the Indo-Pacific as a single ocean systemRethinking the Indo-Pacific as a single ocean system
Locals sometimes get so used to the scenery that they forget to marvel at the sights. This isn’t just true for people that live in beautiful holiday spots. The same tendency can hamper analysts focused on international affairs.
It’s easy, for example, to see the Indo-Pacific as a scatter of distant landmasses and island chains. Yet an unexpected work trip to France recently offered me a clearer view of the region’s richness and potential. A few weeks ago I was privileged to join the 5th International Session for the Indo-Pacific at the invitation of France’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Institute for Advanced Studies in National Defence. In a week-long program alongside 54 senior military and government officials, academics and policy experts from across the region – from East Africa to the Pacific Islands – I was struck not by our diversity but by how quickly a shared sense of purpose took shape.
The discussions in Paris also reinforced a more accurate way to think about the region: as a single, interconnected ocean system.
The Indo-Pacific is shaped less by the distance between its shorelines and instead by the waters that bind – a maritime domain where economic, environmental and security challenges move fluidly across thousands of kilometres.
An ocean system rather than an increasingly fractured region makes its greatest asset the willingness of its people to work together across geographies, histories and political systems.
This has been a year that felt at times defined more by pressure than promise. Headlines have centred on maritime tension, conflicts across several arenas, coercive behaviour, climate shocks and hybrid threats. But beneath that noise lies something more enduring: a region whose greatest strength is not its size or its resources, but its capacity for connection and cooperation.
This shift in perspective matters because 2025 underscored how deeply interdependent the region has become. Three broad trends accelerated this year.
First, climate impacts are intensifying – and the pace of change is increasing. The climate–defence nexus is becoming central to capability planning, infrastructure resilience, supply-chain protection and long-term strategic advantage. Defence forces and industries alike are recognising that adapting to climate impacts is not only environmentally responsible but operationally critical.
The Indo-Pacific is shaped less by the distance between its shorelines and instead by the waters that bind (Tyler Robertson/US Coast Guard Photo)
Second, conflict dynamics, internal fragility and geostrategic competition have deepened, from maritime confrontations to spikes in coercive economic behaviour.
Third, rapid advances in technology have created a more complex operating environment, blurring lines between civilian and military domains and expanding the vectors of hybrid threats and strategic competition.
For many smaller coastal and island states in the neighbourhood these pressures are acute. Climate impacts, declining fish stocks, degraded marine environments, piracy and cyber vulnerabilities are felt more immediately than great-power rivalry. Discussions with the island-state representatives in Paris underscored that when livelihoods, food systems and critical infrastructure are at stake, the hierarchy of threats looks different.
In this part of the world, it is not land that defines the opportunities and challenges as much as the connecting ocean.
Amid this complexity France’s approach to the Indo-Pacific – articulated throughout the discussions in Paris – offers an alternative strategic lens to the narrative offered by great powers. Stepping outside the dynamics of US–China competition, French policymakers emphasised maritime zones, sovereignty partnerships and strategic autonomy. They argued that their approach is not framed against any one country, nor defined by forcing binary choices. Instead, it prioritises engagement with all states, respect for local realities and a commitment to multilateralism as the foundation of the rules-based order. France’s deep presence in the region – driven by its national interests and spanning overseas territories, an extensive exclusive economic zone and a wide diplomatic network – shapes this perspective.
What stood out most, however, was how deeply human these strategic issues are. The diversity of voices in the room revealed a region wrestling with similar concerns: how to maintain sovereignty, ensure safe and open sea lanes, protect civic space and human rights, deepen economic opportunity, respond to climate pressures and strengthen digital and maritime security. Despite vastly different national contexts, the commonalities were striking.
These diverse voices were also hopeful. Because if the Indo-Pacific is indeed an ocean system rather than an increasingly fractured region, then its greatest asset is the willingness of its people to work together across geographies, histories and political systems. The region’s abundance takes many forms: young populations, rich cultures, critical minerals, renewable energy potential, thriving innovation ecosystems and a blue economy that could define the next century of growth if managed sustainably.
As 2025 draws to a close the stakes for the year ahead are significant. In 2026, global leadership tables will be shaped by France leading the G7, the United States leading the G20, China leading APEC and India leading BRICS. This alignment will test the region’s ability to cooperate beyond traditional blocs.
In this part of the world, it is not land that defines the opportunities and challenges as much as the connecting ocean. In a year marked by pressure and uncertainty that reminder feels profound. The Indo-Pacific’s future stability will depend not only on how competition is managed but on how deliberately the choice is made for connection, partnership and shared purpose across those waters.
About the author
Alana Ford
Alana Ford is the Founder & Principal Adviser at Sirius Geopolitics .
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