Europe, explained.
A pro-European rally at Piata Universitatii square in Bucharest on 5 December 2024 following contested presidential elections (Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images)
Allegations of Russian interference in a surprise result has led to an election re-run and a reminder of political ghosts.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Romania’s presidential election triggers uncertainty for Europe, Ukraine and its alliesRomania’s presidential election triggers uncertainty for Europe, Ukraine and its allies
It’s wet and freezing in Bucharest. A cold walk leads up Unirii Boulevard between avenues of skeletal trees towards the stark outline of Romania’s parliament rising into the sky. But the tumultuous presidential election, which unfolded last month in the Balkan state, has triggered heated reactions and fiery rhetoric, and this uncertainty is set to continue in the coming weeks amid allegations of Russian agency in the shock win of far-right candidate Călin Georgescu, which has led to the entire election being annulled ahead of a rerun.
State intelligence revelations, suggesting foreign interference, preceded the Romanian Constitutional Court’s decision on 6 December that an orchestrated online campaign, primarily on TikTok, manipulated voter behaviour and inflated polling in the 24 November poll. As the Court’s verdict became public, fellow commuters on the city’s metro, muffled in scarves and parkas, thronged through the cavernous concrete Communist-era stations focused on their destinations. But Romanians are far from disengaged. The previous evening, thousands opposed to the far-right joined a pro-democracy rally in the capital.
The Court’s ruling that the election had not been free and fair drew ire from both sides of politics. Georgescu supporters are angered that their man didn’t get to finish the race in the second voting round, while his rival, the pro-EU reformer, Elena Lasconi, claimed her democratic right to run and vote had been denied, too.
Far-right presidential candidate Catalin Georgescu at a protest against the annulment of the presidential elections (Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images)
What happens next in the country, which ousted Communist rule 35 years ago, will be of critical importance to the European Union and Western powers. Through the haze of winter rain, the nation’s parliament, a colossal palace that blends Communism and 1980s neoclassical excess, is a monolithic reminder of former Communist leader Nicolae Ceausescu’s grandiose vision. Construction was left unfinished when a national uprising toppled Ceausescu in 1989 and ended the country’s run of Soviet-backed leaders that began in 1948. Today, overlooking a nation that has transitioned to a democracy, joined NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007, the building stands as an alternative symbol of the Romanian people’s resilience in times of upheaval.
Strategically located south of Ukraine, Romania under incumbent President Klaus Iohannis has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s efforts to turn back Russia’s invasion and accepted large numbers of refugees. And 52-year-old Lasconi, Georgescu’s rival and President of the Save Romania Union Party, is the focus of hope for pro-EU continuity. The former journalist turned politician and Mayor of the provincial city of Campulung wants to see improved infrastructure and economic reforms and is determined that the nation’s democratic future and its support for Ukraine will not be derailed. “Independence from Russia and a Euro-Atlantic path was our dream in December 1989 and is the dream that we must defend today,” Lasconi campaigned.
Locals speak too of how public attitudes toward the Ukraine war have changed as domestic concerns have become more central to people’s lives.
Yet Georgescu’s first round polling lead of 23 per cent of votes came as a surprise. The 62-year-old Independent, agronomist, civil servant and admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strongman patriotism was previously associated with the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) Party. He pledges to boost defence, build agricultural self-sufficiency, reduce foreign investment and end national support of the Ukraine war.
There is public outrage at allegations of Russian interference and undermining of Romanians’ democratic rights; the events of 1989 are not that far in the past. And there is awareness of Russia’s attempts to influence Moldova’s election this year and its aggressive political influence in Hungary and Slovakia.
But Georgescu’s support base is real, if not as extensive as it initially seemed. His populist rhetoric has resonated with those most affected by domestic socio-economic issues. At the turn of the millennium, Romania saw an improving economy, but it has slowed with GDP growth falling from 5.7 per cent in 2021 to 2.1 per cent last year. Food prices remain high, there is pessimism about job prospects, and the rural population faces high levels of poverty and poor access to basic services, such as health. “The 35-years-long economic uncertainty imposed on the Romanian people became uncertainty for the political parties today,” Georgescu proclaimed after his initial win.
Locals speak too of how public attitudes towards the Ukraine war have changed as domestic concerns have become more central to people’s lives. During the busy lunchtime hour, I glanced at the middle-aged woman sitting next to me on the bus who was glued to her mobile phone: she was watching a video entitled, “We vote for Călin Georgescu.”
A separate parliamentary election, held on 1 December, provided some reassurance, with the pro-European Social Democrats successfully taking 22 per cent of the votes. But the far-right bloc also saw their overall support rise significantly.
The outcome of the new presidential poll, when it occurs, will matter as the president wields real power in the country’s foreign relations and decides who leads the government. And it is of crucial concern to the European Union and NATO. Romania is hosting construction of the alliance’s largest military base in Europe as the Ukraine conflict rages on with no end in sight yet.
Romanians are now in a suspended waiting mode until they find out how many weeks or months the country will sit under a cloud of political irresolution.
About the author
Catherine Wilson
Catherine Wilson is a freelance journalist and correspondent reporting on the Pacific Islands region for the international media.
Topics
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
