The Singaporean General Election has been called for 3 May, where the People’s Action Party (PAP), in power since 1959, seeks to inaugurate the new “Fourth Generation” (4G) leadership under newly appointed Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The election, however, takes place amidst the Trumpian turbocharging of trade politics that goes straight to the very core of Singaporean economic identity. By threatening a contraction of global trade, the tariffs strike at the heart of the Singaporean economy, an entrepôt nation-state with trade figures about three times its GDP. The PAP has sought to position its campaign around this issue that presents genuinely existential stakes. But much of the public, saddled with immediate economic challenges, may not afford it the same weight.
The PAP has never polled below 60 per cent, and falling beneath that would be extremely alarming for the party.
Elections in Singapore differ markedly from what global observers might expect. There are, on the one hand, significant signs of change. The PAP has not in its post-independence history had to face as charismatic a politician as Leader of the Opposition Pritam Singh, who leads the increasingly well-oiled Workers’ Party. Yet the traditional pattern of Singaporean elections that features the PAP as its main protagonist looks set to continue, as political leanings are still not defined by ideological commitments but instead by how voters position themselves for or against the ruling party. The PAP’s ultimate victory – winning a majority of the 97 electable seats in parliament – is a basically foregone conclusion, but one question is whether the ruling party will be able to retain its two-thirds supermajority. The party looks very likely to do so.
While the number of seats obtained remains the ultimate political currency, the overall vote statistic also represents a crucial barometer of the party’s general legitimacy: while its 61 per cent total vote share in the previous election in 2020 would represent a staggering victory for almost any political party around the world, it was a negative nine per cent vote swing against the PAP, and symbolised major dissatisfaction with the party’s performance. The other pressing question is if the party’s vote share will continue to fall – the PAP has never polled below 60 per cent, and falling beneath that would be extremely alarming for the party.
But what will determine the outcome of this election? It is interesting to observe that the issues that animated political commentary from 2021 to 2024 have since dissipated: the spate of scandals featuring corruption and adultery, leading to the jailing of S. Iswaran, then Minister of Transport, made global headlines as they contradicted the PAP’s carefully cultivated image of being eminently allergic to any form of corruption. The party has been quick to turn the issue around, arguing that its intolerance to corruption was evident in the judicial processes it allowed to continue despite the high political standing of the figure involved. This ran parallel with high-profile adultery scandals in both the PAP and the Workers’ Party, leading to the resignation of three Members of Parliament, including the then Speaker of the House Tan Chuan Jin.
What has emerged as foremost in the minds of Singaporean voters in the upcoming election is the common global theme of “cost of living”.
However, none of this has featured prominently in the electoral discourse. Similarly, the 4G had previously invested political capital into green initiatives, aggregated into their Singapore Green Plan 2030. Yet, in 2025, climate change has conspicuously fallen off the agenda – a disappointing outcome in a moment when the global gains made over the past decade are under threat of rollback. The PAP has also resisted tapping into the symbolic tenth anniversary of the death of its founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, likely cognisant of the population’s growing intolerance for exploiting his symbol for political gain.
Unsurprisingly, what has emerged as foremost in the minds of Singaporean voters in the upcoming election is the common global theme of “cost of living”. Multiple reports have identified “bread-and-butter issues” as primary. Such material issues have swung previous elections, and they may do so again, as even the ongoing renewal of the PAP’s leadership – which sees 32 new candidates and the retirement of three heavyweight party elders – appears subordinated to this overarching theme. While core inflation has been gradually managed through measures such as currency appreciation, the issues of housing prices and immigration have reemerged as the potential sources of torment for the PAP. Singapore’s climbing housing prices strike at the core of the nation-state’s social contract: 80 per cent of citizens live in public housing flats maintained by the much-vaunted Housing Development Board, and public housing has over decades developed into the key promise and entrenched political responsibility of the PAP.
These concerns remain the most tangible and immediate for many voters, and it may in the end be the public’s confidence – or lack thereof – in the PAP’s ability to address them that influences the vote. What registers is not the macroeconomy, but the lived economy.
