Australia, explained.
A citizen posts his ballot for the 2025 Bundestag election in Germany on 16 February 2025 (Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
To dismiss the parallels of voter dissatisfaction in Australia outright would be a mistake.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Status quo politics is fading and Germany’s elections mark a turning pointStatus quo politics is fading and Germany’s elections mark a turning point
Germany will be the latest major European power to head to the polls this weekend, in an election that could well redefine the nation’s political landscape – and with Australia’s own federal election looming, the aftershocks could echo well beyond European shores.
The forces at play in Germany – economic stagnation, record high migration, a cost-of-living crisis, and growing disillusionment with mainstream parties – have propelled the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) to the forefront of politics. Facing these issues, an increasingly vocal and resolute wave of frustration is reshaping the country, with populist parties on the far-right and left of politics capitalising on growing voter discontent to advance radically different visions for the nation’s future.
This is not just Germany’s story. It is a broader, global shift - one where stagnant living standards, migration anxieties, and a loss of faith in institutions are converging.
Last month, Elon Musk threw fuel onto Germany’s political fire, endorsing the far-right AfD during an interview with its leader Alice Weidel, declaring “only the AfD can save Germany”. This was further inflamed this past weekend during Vice President JD Vance’s visit to the Munich Security Conference, stating that “there’s no room for firewalls”, then later endorsing the controversial party as a political partner. Riding a successful wave of America’s own populist right-wing movement, these words underscore a reality that has been unfolding for months – the old rules of the game are out, and the populist wave is going global.
But looking ahead, this is not just Germany’s story. It is a broader, global shift - one where stagnant living standards, migration anxieties, and a loss of faith in institutions are converging.
Germany’s discontent did not erupt overnight. The collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s traffic light coalition last year marked the culmination of a long period of mounting frustrations.
Its once thriving economy is now languishing under the weight of high energy prices, worsened by its dependence on foreign gas and decision to close down its nuclear plants. On top of this, competition from China is intensifying, and the country’s once prized manufacturing and automotive industries are in decline. Now, with mounting fears that Trump-era tariffs could further erode an already fragile sector, the perfect storm is brewing for the German economy.
Against the backdrop of high energy prices, a cost-of-living crisis, and anti-migration sentiment, the 23 February federal election looms large (Christian Lue/Unsplash)
Simmering in the background, Germany’s social fabric is straining, and the legacy of Angela Merkel’s open door migration policy has turned increasingly sour for German voters. In particular, public unrest has flared following an ongoing swathe of terror attacks, most recently this past weekend in Munich, where an Afghan asylum seeker drove a car into a crowd of bystanders, an occurrence that has become concerningly common. Across the country, anti-migrant sentiment is intensifying, especially in the country’s east, where entrenched divisions dating back to reunification have deepened, fuelling support for the populist far-right.
Against this backdrop, the 23 February federal election looms large. Polling suggests a major shift towards populist parties, primarily the AfD, but also the left-wing Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and its predecessor Die Linke. Movements that both, despite their ideological differences, share an anti-establishment ethos.
Across the Western world, many of the same underlying forces are in motion.
While recent electoral reforms may spare Scholz’s SPD from total electoral annihilation, the expected outcome – a fragile coalition between the SPD and its historical rival, the CDU – only underscores the desperation of the political establishment. Meanwhile, the long-standing commitment or “firewall” keeping AfD out of power has shown signs of beginning to crack, with CDU Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz recently passing a motion on immigration with their support.
Many elements of Germany’s crisis are unique to its history and circumstances. Australia has not faced the same energy price shocks, nor does it grapple with the deep-seated identity anxieties that stem from reunification. And unlike in Europe, the far-right has yet to gain mainstream traction in Australia – at least not in the same way.
Yet to dismiss these parallels outright would be a mistake. Across the Western world, many of the same underlying forces are in motion. A cost-of-living crisis is pushing Australians to the brink. Young people are increasingly locked out of home ownership. Migration levels have surged to record highs, fuelling the cost-of-living debate and pushing both major parties to shift right on the issue. All while we grapple with and are increasingly divided by issues around national identity.
Meanwhile, the government’s approval ratings have plummeted, and at current projections, neither major party looks set to command a clear majority come election day.
While no political force in Australia has yet emerged with the scale or momentum of the AfD, the temptation to harness the same voter frustrations is palpable. Of late, there certainly appears to be flirtations with some of this style of rhetoric, perhaps seeking to channel voter anger – with examples including critiques of government efficiency or symbolic gestures around the Indigenous flag. Yet the question remains: is this a genuine populist pivot or merely an attempt to ride the wave without fully embracing it?
The contest reshaping Germany is not an outlier, but what appears to be part of a broader realignment. The old left-right divide is increasingly giving way to something more fundamental: an establishment struggling to preserve the status quo and an insurgent, revisionist right promising to rewrite the rules.
About the author
Morgan James
Morgan James is a researcher & pollster at Freshwater Strategy.
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
