Pacific Islands, explained.
A New Caledonia Kanaky flag draped on Lyon City Hall stairs during a gathering in support of the New Caledonia Kanaky people in Lyon, France, 13 May 2025 (Matthieu Delaty via Getty Images)
It’s said demographics is destiny, as Australia’s closest eastern neighbour is finding out.
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A strategic reset for New Caledonia: France offers quasi-sovereignty, and a looming census may reveal Indigenous majorityA strategic reset for New Caledonia: France offers quasi-sovereignty, and a looming census may reveal Indigenous majority
After months of violent riots around independence, talks chaired by French Minister for Overseas Territories Manuel Valls have failed to produce agreement about New Caledonia’s future. Correcting its 2024 provocation of imposing change unilaterally, France has now offered to hand over elements of sovereignty, a major shift already questioned by many in Paris.
Valls warns the present lack of agreement in the French Pacific territory is “heavy with threats” of chaos. Yet in a territory where support for independence is ethnically based, a census under way will reveal the ethnic composition, quantifying a growing indigenous presence.
New Caledonia’s status is presently the region’s most delicate political flashpoint. It’s crucial for Australia to develop a considered response to the trouble on the doorstep before a further episode of violence such as erupted last year – or worse – demands a more urgent form of attention.
The recent round of talks has centred on two proposals, one by loyalist parties and one by France. Loyalists supported a federalist solution, allowing Kanak provinces to shape their links with France, and the mainly European south to remain French. Valls and independence groups rejected this plan, citing exclusion of partition in the 1998 Noumea Accord, which had set out a decades-long process to decide the status of the territory.
Valls’ proposal delegated key sovereign powers, with the prospect of immediate re-delegation of some or all back to France, double nationality, and an agreed international status, within the French Constitution.
Trends over decades show a decline in Europeans and increasing Kanak, and non-Kanak islander, populations.
Independence leaders praised France for moving ahead on its UN decolonisation obligations, although said the plan needed work. Loyalists categorically rejected France’s proposal as “independence in association” akin to a plan put by France and refused by loyalists in 1985 during the conflict at the time. They claimed Valls’ “independence” proposal killed any chance of negotiation.
Valls is an experienced operator on New Caledonian issues. He understands the challenges of securing early agreement after an explosive 2024. The fractious political situation in Paris, with Prime Minister François Bayrou under constant threat of censure, does not help. Loyalists reportedly called on President Emmanuel Macron and others to pressure Valls once they saw his proposal, and Republicans suggest they will withdraw support for Bayrou if it proceeds. Independence leader Emmanuel Tjibaou was also cautious, describing the talks as “one step” in the process.
Despite the failure, it appears all parties remain committed to the process, and none walked away as they have in the past. They identified many points of agreement.
France’s Minister of Overseas Territories Manuel Valls, right, visiting Ouate tribe Classe Decouverte director Maguy Naouna in Pouembout, New Caledonia, 1 May 2025 (Delphine Mayeur/AFP via Getty Images)
There may yet be some small meeting of minds over the question of broadening voter eligibility, the issue that triggered the 2024 violence. The current definition sees some Kanaks and Europeans alike prevented from voting. Agreement to change that aspect alone would enable provincial elections to proceed as planned by November, providing an updated reflection of the electoral strength of each side, which is fundamental to negotiations.
Simultaneously with talks, France conducted a territory census from 22 April to 22 May, which it had delayed from last year. Demographics matter in New Caledonia. The ethnic underpinning to differences over independence, highlighted in the three independence referendums held between 2018 and 2021, showed support for independence comes from indigenous Kanak areas and opposition from more European areas.
Trends over decades show a decline in Europeans and increasing Kanak, and non-Kanak islander, populations. New Caledonia’s population is about 270,000. In the census of 2019, indigenous Kanaks comprised 41 per cent of the population, up from 39 per cent in 2014. Europeans made up 24 per cent of the population, down from 27 per cent, with the remaining 35 per cent mainly other Pacific islanders.
The results of the latest census are likely to confirm these trends – and undoubtedly an acceleration. Official figures since have shown a net departure of about 2,000 a year from 2015 to 2022, most presumably non-Kanak. Anecdotal evidence suggests a dramatic increase in net departures with the violence of 2024. The airport authority reported 10,000 net departures in 2024, a crude figure but indicative of a further likely net loss of non-Kanaks.
These trends suggest that Kanaks are approaching 50 per cent of the population on an increasing trajectory, and Europeans are already well short of their 24 per cent in 2019, and declining.
France’s offer to hand over further core sovereignty elements, albeit politically shaky in Paris, and its preparedness to proceed now with the census, suggest a certain bowing to the inevitable. While local loyalists are not convinced, this shift by France represents a significant evolution in its approach to its pre-eminent Pacific territory.
As Australia’s nearest eastern neighbour, changes in New Caledonia’s status could substantially alter the geopolitical landscape of the region. Australian policymakers should be actively assessing how a potentially more independent New Caledonia might affect regional security arrangements, economic partnerships, and diplomatic relationships throughout the Pacific – particularly as other powers seek to expand their influence.
About the author
Denise Fisher
Denise Fisher is a Visiting Fellow at ANU's Centre for European Studies.
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