For some time now, Ukraine has been undertaking a long-range strike campaign against targets inside Russia. It has done this to degrade Russia’s war-making capacity by attacking factories and oil refineries. It is also to demonstrate to its supporters and aid providers that a Russian victory is not inevitable. And finally, the aim is to place political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a war termination agreement favourable to Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia has waged a long-range strike campaign against Ukraine. This has focused on energy infrastructure, defence industry as well as civilian targets. This campaign has accelerated recently with hundreds of drones attacking Ukraine each night.
Over the weekend, Russia and Ukraine traded significant blows in their long-range strike campaigns.
Russia attacked Ukraine with over 400 missiles and drones.
Ukraine, for its part, executed a spectacular assault on multiple Russian airbases, destroying an unconfirmed number of bombers.
Despite the spectacular nature of the Ukrainian attacks, we should temper our expectations of the strategic outcomes from the attacks. Russia has been under these sorts of attacks for some time, and Putin is yet to step away from his maximalist goals for the war.
That said, these strikes will have an impact on the war in Ukraine.
First, as has been the case in the wake of previous attacks of this type, it will force the Russians to review where they have their strategic aviation assets based, and how the bombers and associated base infrastructure is protected. This may force the Russians to move their aircraft more frequently to avoid detection or move them even further from Ukraine. It will also force Russia to potentially redeploy air defence assets from elsewhere, although whether this is from the frontline or other strategic locations remains to be seen.
When Ukraine is being pummelled by hundreds of Russian drones on an almost nightly basis, people want to see counter punches.
Second, depending on just how many aircraft have been destroyed or damaged, it will reduce the number of Russian bombers that can carry and launch long-range missiles against Ukraine. This is an important Ukrainian objective because these missiles are harder to intercept, are more accurate, and carry a much larger warhead than drones can. The bomber-deployed missiles generally achieve a higher rate of penetration of Ukrainian defences than drones. Degrading Russia’s means to launch these missiles is crucial to Ukraine’s protection of its people, infrastructure and overall war effort.
Next, this will have an influence on Ukrainian morale – for civilians and soldiers. Morale always matters during war. And when Ukraine is being pummelled by hundreds of Russian drones on an almost nightly basis, people want to see counter punches. While Ukraine has regularly hit back with massive drone strikes of its own against strategic targets in Russia, this is perhaps the most spectacular one for a long time.
Finally, as a prelude to the scheduled peace negotiations in Istanbul this week, Ukraine is signalling to its supporters that it remains in the fight, that Russia is still struggling to make progress in Ukraine, and that the yet-to-be revealed Russian negotiating position must be viewed critically.
Beyond the war in Ukraine, this attack once again emphasises the impact of drones on warfare. It is a salutary lesson about balancing small numbers of exquisite weapon systems with large numbers of cheaper capabilities. And, it is a lesson that military bases, in war zones and at home, are now more vulnerable than ever to cheap, easily hidden and quickly deployed weapons that can appear with little notice.
The latest Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields will have an influence on the war but are unlikely to change the political calculus of the Russian leader. However, the attacks are yet another harbinger of future war that many Western military institutions are yet to fully accept.
