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ASEAN flags decorate the streets at Bukit Bintang, Kuala Lumpur (Faris Hadziq via Getty Images)
Tariffs, border disputes and shrinking aid budgets combine to challenge six decades of regional economic progress.
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Triple shock threatens Southeast Asia’s development modelTriple shock threatens Southeast Asia’s development model
Southeast Asia is facing an economic stress test. For almost six decades, ASEAN has been praised as a catalyst for peaceful development in the region. But now, three shocks are hitting at once: surging U.S. tariffs, shrinking Western aid, and rising border tensions that threaten to choke vital trade routes.
Each challenge alone could disrupt growth. Together, they are straining the region’s economic resilience, political cohesion, and long‑term development ambitions.
Factories from Phnom Penh to Ho Chi Minh City are facing short-term reductions in output amid growing uncertainty. Governments dependent on aid are scrambling to plug budget gaps. Border traders and small exporters are watching their livelihoods vanish as crossings close.
This is more than a passing storm; it is a test of whether ASEAN can adapt to a harsher, more fragmented global economy.
The tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump exceed 3,500% on Southeast Asian exports in sectors like solar technology, electronics, and textiles. The US has targeted Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Myanmar with some of the highest general rates, initially 44-49%, before easing Cambodia’s rate to 19% and Vietnam’s to 20% in August.
While tariffs and border conflicts make headlines, a quieter but equally consequential shift is also under way.
For Cambodia, the impact is acute. Garments and textiles make up almost 60% of its total exports, generating about 70% of export earnings and employing hundreds of thousands of workers, mostly women. Vietnam’s garment exports account for around 12% of its export turnover.
These tariffs are not just a trade policy shift; they threaten the economic livelihoods of millions.
Some countries may benefit from trade diversion. Vietnam could attract electronics and assembly work, Thailand might gain automotive investments, and Indonesia could draw more garment and footwear orders. But uncertainty looms large and can cripple investment decisions. Tariffs rarely vanish quickly; they reshape global supply chains and investment flows for years. And prolonged stagnation risks undermining the peace and economic growth that trade has long helped sustain in the region.
Alone, the tariffs would be a challenge enough. Yet ASEAN’s economic integration depends on open and predictable borders. In 2025, political disputes are undermining that foundation.
Relations between Cambodia and Thailand have deteriorated sharply, with tensions over disputed territory triggering a suspension of petrol imports into Cambodia. Fuel prices in border provinces spiked overnight, pushing up transport costs for businesses and household expenses. The dispute turned violent. After five days of clashes in late July, around 910,000 migrants returned home between 24 July and 11 August, disrupting remittance flows and leaving many families without income.
People evacuated from border areas during Thailand-Cambodia clashes, Chang International Circuit in Buriram Province, Thailand, 24 July 2025 (Valeria Mongelli/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Elsewhere, Myanmar and Thailand border closures have disrupted the movement of goods, migrant workers, and remittances. In the Sulu‑Celebes Seas, maritime disputes among the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia have heightened security risks for shipping and fishing, deterring investment in maritime infrastructure.
These disruptions hit small- and medium‑sized enterprises (SMEs) and informal cross‑border traders hardest. Large corporations can reroute shipments or absorb higher costs; small traders and informal workers cannot. Rising border tensions also carry a political cost: when two ASEAN members exchange fire, it chips away at the bloc’s credibility as a guarantor of peace.
While tariffs and border conflicts make headlines, a quieter but equally consequential shift is also under way.
Western aid budgets are shrinking. Constrained by domestic cost‑of‑living crises and costly wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, donors including the United States, the European Union, and Japan are cutting development assistance.
The pain is uneven. Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, highly aid‑dependent, face the sharpest squeeze. In Cambodia, aid funds significant shares of education and health budgets. In Laos, it helps sustain macroeconomic stability amid mounting debt. Myanmar’s political crisis has already slashed inflows. Even middle‑income ASEAN members are seeing targeted programs in climate action, governance, and skills training scaled back.
Without aid, governments will need to rely more on domestic revenue, bond markets, and public-private partnerships. But building strong tax systems, deep capital markets, and investor confidence takes time – time the region may not have in a world of faster‑moving shocks.
All this amounts to a triple test for ASEAN.
Tariffs, border frictions, and aid cuts are not isolated threats; they interact. Tariffs can shrink export revenues, while aid cuts remove fiscal cushions. Border closures can nullify whatever gains a country might make from trade diversion. This interlocking pressure threatens ASEAN’s goal of becoming a competitive, integrated economic community.
The region has weathered crises before – financial crises in 1997‑98 and 2008, the Covid‑19 pandemic – through adaptability, pragmatism, and cooperation. But today’s shocks are simultaneous, more interconnected, and unfolding in a world with fewer safety nets and a highly fragmented global economy.
Whether ASEAN can emerge stronger depends on its ability to deepen internal market linkages, negotiate with external powers as a united bloc, and invest in domestic capacity. This is not just about surviving 2025’s turbulence; it is about shaping a more resilient and prosperous decade ahead.
About the author
Dina Chhorn
Mr Dina Chhorn is the Centre Director of Development Economics and Trade at the Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI).
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