Russia, explained.
The aftermath of a Ukrainian attack on an oil refinery in Belgorod, Russia in the early weeks after Russia's full-scale invasion. Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian oil facilities in recent months (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Drone attacks on energy infrastructure expose Moscow’s vulnerabilities while raising costs of continued war.
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Ukraine’s oil war threatens to leave Russia running on emptyUkraine’s oil war threatens to leave Russia running on empty
Ukraine is steadily expanding its campaign against Russia’s oil refineries. Fuel shortages are worsening across the country, with one Russian newspaper warning that the country is on the verge of a full-scale fuel crisis. What Moscow calls unplanned maintenance is now visible in inflation data as gasoline prices rise. Kyiv’s kinetic sanctions are increasing social pressure at home while constraining the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war.
Reuters reports that at least 17 per cent of Russia’s refining capacity is disrupted. Offline primary refining reached a record 6.4 million tons in August, about 65 per cent above earlier maintenance plans, and Russia has been forced to curb throughput at some export terminals.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted Russia faces gas shortages amid Ukraine’s escalating strikes on energy infrastructure. Putin suggested that Russia should switch to coal reserves that “will last for almost a thousand years”.
Throughout 2025, the defining trend has been Ukraine’s expanding reach. Eight months into Trump’s presidency, the Kremlin has yet to face extensive new sanctions for continuing its war. In the absence of stronger US action, Kyiv has effectively imposed its own sanctions program striking oil depots across Russia to choke Moscow’s war machine.
If Ukraine sustains this tempo, the crunch will deepen as autumn agriculture and winter heating push demand higher. Repeated strikes on the same plants slow repairs. The most vulnerable processing units require specialized equipment that few countries produce, which makes rapid replacement unrealistic.
Moscow depends on oil and gas revenues to sustain its war effort. In a grinding war of attrition, the Kremlin relies on a steady flow of personnel sent in waves to try to overwhelm Ukrainian defences. Russia has suffered more than a million casualties and must keep raising enlistment payments to attract recruits. Disruptions to these coffers can gradually undermine its ability to sustain troop levels needed at the front to make any sort of battlefield gains.
Satellite image showing a burned out portion of the Lukoils Volgorad refinery complex on 26 August 2025 following a Ukrainian drone strike (Maxar Technologies/Getty Images)
The dire economic signals are growing. Russia raised defence spending by roughly a quarter this year, yet its energy revenue base is under strain. Rosneft’s first half net income fell more than 68 per cent to 245 billion roubles. Across the first half of 2025, the major producers saw profits fall two to threefold amid lower global prices, tighter Western sanctions, and a stronger rouble. Industrywide profits fell by more than half, with nearly half of companies in the red.
Fuel has vanished from stations in cities including Vladivostok, with drivers waiting hours in long lines or relying on ration cards. Blocked highways have delayed fuel deliveries for weeks and sent wholesale gasoline prices to record highs, which in some cases are up 40–50 per cent since the start of the year. Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, pointed out the irony of the situation in a post on X: “In 2022, Russia did everything to deprive Ukraine of fuel. Now they suddenly face a shortage themselves.”
By attacking the heart of Putin’s wartime economy, Ukraine is increasing the price of continued aggression at home and abroad.
The information space reflects the growing domestic pressures inside Russia. Official channels still blame falling drone debris, while authorities push bans on filming air defences. Loudspeakers tell residents not to record. Prominent war bloggers openly mock the narrative and complain that refineries are burning, fuel is scarce, and troops are still being sent to the front.
This is a deliberate campaign that was started in late 2023 to degrade logistics and stretch Russian defences across vast distances. The result is cognitive overload for the Kremlin. Planners must protect dozens of sites, manage daily disruptions, and constantly redeploy limited air defence assets across a vast territory. Ukraine’s General Staff has added that this year’s deep strikes have cost Russia over 4% of its GDP, with every tenth strike reaching more than 1,000 kilometres beyond Ukraine’s borders.
This also creates an embarrassing situation where the authorities are unable to explain that the special military operation is not going to plan in Ukraine, when Ukrainian drones regularly bomb Russia.
Adding to Moscow’s misery, Ukraine has also struck the Druzhba oil pipeline, shutting down the 4,000-kilometre network that has supplied Central Europe since the 1960s, further reducing Moscow’s energy leverage against Europe. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico recently complained in Beijing about the strikes on the oil pipeline as it helps supply the country.
Russia did not anticipate this level of reach and coordination. The widening strike envelope has forced expensive hardening and constant emergency measures to keep fuel flowing. Even when immediate output losses appear contained, the longer-term impacts could continue to increase. These coordinated strikes have also been extended to the occupied Crimean Peninsula where Kyiv has stepped up its attacks.
Ukraine is also learning and improving with each strike. Ukraine’s target selection has been methodical, hitting the biggest oil refineries and increasing the strike rate. Each successful strike compounds the burden on Russia’s energy logistics, erodes any sense of sanctuary and helps undermine Russian morale. While Vladimir Putin continues to bide his time and delay any meaningful negotiations, Kyiv’s drone offensive aims to change that and force Moscow to the negotiation table.
By attacking the heart of Putin’s wartime economy, Ukraine is increasing the price of continued aggression at home and abroad. Coupled with greater European backing, its advancing drone offensives can help ensure any future talks occur from a position of strength.
About the author
David Kirichenko
David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
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