Beyond marking the UN’s 80th anniversary, the upcoming General Assembly high-level week, which will take place 23–29 September, promises to feature a crowded agenda – from the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, to Donald Trump’s address and the prospect of Washington drastically cutting its budget contribution to the organisation.
But amid the headlines, a quieter yet pivotal battle will begin: the campaign for the next UN Secretary-General.
Often deemed the hardest role in the world, the job description includes nothing less than shepherding a solution to climate change or mitigating the threat of Artificial Intelligence. This while also trying to maintain peace in the world. And whoever wins the top job will also inherit an institution that is not only politically frozen but also in serious financial trouble.
Civil society groups and many member states are pushing for a woman secretary-general, as no woman has ever led the world body in its 80 years.
After Trump’s return to the White House, uncertainty over US dues – the United States is assessed to provide 22% of the UN’s regular budget – prompted Secretary-General António Guterres to revisit the organisation’s budget management. Around the same time, Guterres launched UN80, ostensibly as an efficiency initiative but seen by many as a response to Trump. Whether those reforms leave the next Secretary-General with a leaner body or one strained by geopolitics and austerity is still unclear.
So who in their right mind would want this job?
Just as happened ten years ago, civil society groups and many member states are pushing for a woman secretary-general, as no woman has ever led the world body in its 80 years. As is often the case in politics, however, the first woman could get the job at the worst possible time, inheriting a role that is far from set up for success. According to an informal geographic rotation – which is implemented rather inconsistently – it should be Latin America’s turn to have a Secretary-General, as the region was skipped last time around.
But just like ten years ago, not only women will run. Last time, 13 candidates stood, seven of whom were women. But Guterres – a former Portuguese prime minister long considered the frontrunner for the role – was ultimately elected.
This time around, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, has already expressed his intent to run.
Bolivia has also brought forward a candidate, its Vice President, David Choquehuanca.
Still, not many people have formalised their candidacy yet. That could change in the coming weeks.
A few months ago, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said she would “maybe” throw her hat in the ring.
As with so much else in the UN, the permanent five hold an outsized role in deciding who leads the organisation, with the power to veto any candidate.
Alicia Bárcena, Mexico’s Secretary for the Environment and formerly Foreign Affairs, who has a long history of working with the UN, has also not discarded the possibility of running, but nor has she launched an official campaign. Bárcena said she would support any woman candidate from Latin America but expressed an interest in the job.
Other rumoured candidates could show up in New York in September and attempt to make a splash.
Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley has long been rumoured to be running a shadow campaign.
The same goes for Rebeca Grynspan, a former Vice President of Costa Rica, who currently leads the UN’s main trade agency. While Grynspan did not give a clear answer when asked if she would run last April, she showed openness. Many inside and outside the UN are enthusiastic about her candidacy.
While the 80th anniversary will likely spark much discussion about the past and present of the organisation – and how to change it – the upcoming race will also push delegates to consider the future of the UN, and whether it is bright or not.
The challenge of getting the job as Secretary General comes down to one simple thing – or perhaps five. The permanent members of the UN Security Council. As with so much else in the UN, they hold an outsized role in deciding who leads the organisation, with the power to veto any candidate. Whoever manages to convince these increasingly divided powers not to block their candidacy will likely get the job. Then, the real work begins.
