Defence & Security

The strategic order and the nature of conflict are changing. Security competition between nations and military strategy are growing in complexity even as new transnational challenges deepen. The Lowy Institute’s experts in security and defence look at changing strategic relations, security architecture, nuclear strategy, military capabilities and defence and intelligence policy.

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The Australia–India Strategic Partnership: Accelerating Security Cooperation in the Indo–Pacific

Shared concerns about China's rise have propelled Australia and India to deepen their security ties

By Dhruva Jaishankar

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Colourless green content: AI, disinformation and geopolitical risk

“Orwell's goal was not good writing, Orwell's goal was to prevent people from lying.” In an essay in 1945, George Orwell discussed the relationship between military innovation and the world order. The democratisation of small arms, he argued, gave a chance to anti-colonial independence

By Quinton Temby

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Islamic State’s new battleground – the courts

In the aftermath of Islamic State’s defeat, it was anticipated that fighters and other members of the group would appeal to the very court system of a liberal democracy whose laws they rejected and whose way of ordering society they sought to supplant when they joined the terrorist group. And in

By Rodger Shanahan

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Why is the “Arab street” so silent on the Israel-UAE deal?

The Abraham Accord, the deal announced this month that laid the groundwork for normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, was hailed as a historic opportunity to advance regional peace. Yet it was also seen by Palestinians as a betrayal, as they bitterly complained that

By Lydia Khalil

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Understanding the full spectrum of hate

What is the relationship between online and offline extremism? What types of data should be examined in order to understand this relationship? What is the full scope of violent extremist actions? These are all key questions that extremism researchers are trying to answer. Part of the answer may

By Matteo Vergani

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Indo-Pacific strategy: Before justifying the means, identify the ends

“Strategy”, a term often used loosely in reference to long-term planning, has many published meanings. A military planner, though, sees a clear definition: a strategy is a stated plan for connecting ends (what to accomplish?), ways (how to do it?), and means (with what resources?). And while

By Jason Israel

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The delusion of India trying to throttle China’s maritime trade

The current phase of the Sino-Indian border conflict which began in May this year may go on for quite some time. India seems to be hunkering down for a long winter. Given the relative symmetries in strength ranged across the Himalayan border, there has long been talk in New Delhi of exploiting

By Sudarshan Y. Shrikhande

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Australia and Sri Lanka: Air connectivity in the Indian Ocean region

Australia and Sri Lanka’s recent experience working together to prevent people smuggling from Sri Lanka has been one of the more significant, and largely unreported, wins in regional security cooperation. After almost a decade of close collaboration, largely focusing on naval operations, now

By George I. H. Cooke

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Australia doesn’t need to choose between guns and butter

The Morrison government’s plan for defence spending outlined in the Defence Strategic Update last month has been incorporated into the Canberra consensus, with Labor offering no criticism and the mainstream press largely supportive. Yet as the government grapples with debt and deficit as the

By Frank Yuan

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Diego Garcia: The US has a clear choice

Mauritius is the legitimate sovereign over the Chagos Archipelago, including the island of Diego Garcia, which hosts an important US military base in the Indo-Pacific region. The government of Mauritius has publicly announced its willingness to enter into an agreement that would preserve the base,

By Jagdish Koonjul

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Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Inquiry into the Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade

Joint submission by Lowy Institute researchers to the JSCFADT inquiry into the implications of the pandemic.

By Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Michael Fullilove, Bonnie S Glaser, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu , Alyssa Leng, Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, Ben Scott

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A Chinese-built airport next door to a key Australia-US naval base?

Judging by recent satellite imagery, it appears that significant progress is being made on an expansion and upgrade project at Momote Airport, the nearest airfield to Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea. The runway’s usable length has been extended by about 200 metres, precision

By Thomas Shugart

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A force to combat climate change?

The Defence Strategic Update 2020 has provoked a significant amount of debate in Australia. The reaction across the Tasman in New Zealand has been much more subdued, but Defence Minister Ron Mark reportedly suggested that increases in Australian capability would increase the ability to respond to

By Steven Paget

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Remembering Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Seventy-five years after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki put beyond argument that nuclear weapons are the most indiscriminately inhumane ever devised, the distressing reality is that the risk of nuclear catastrophe is as great as it has ever been, and the goal – shared by all members of the

By Gareth Evans, Chung-in Moon

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Submission to Inquiry into Australia's Defence Relationships with Pacific Island Countries

In July, Jonathan Pryke presented a submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Inquiry into Australia's defence relationships with Pacific Islands

By Jonathan Pryke

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Get behind Southeast Asia with clear policy against China bullies

Originally published in The Australian

By Malcolm Cook

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India, Australia and containing the China challenge

Australia’s strategy on engaging India has long revolved around the so-called “three Cs”: cricket, curry and the Commonwealth. In light of the changing status of bilateral relations in 2020, let’s add a couple more Cs to the list: China, and containment of. On Friday, it emerged that

By Aarti Betigeri

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Hidden gems in the 2020 Force Structure Plan

The recent release of the Defence Strategic Update and Force Structure Plan provided an outline of the government’s defence policy and capability priorities for the next decade. The Force Structure Plan in particular helps define how an additional $270 billion will be invested to deliver critical

By Victor Abramowicz

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Don’t panic — Xi doesn’t hold all the aces in the great game of trade

Originally published in The Sunday Times

By Richard McGregor

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Regional security depends on making order from chaos

Originally published in The Australian

By Sam Roggeveen

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The kind of test the world doesn’t need

In May, the Washington Post reported discussions within the Trump administration about the possibility of conducting the first US nuclear detonation test since 1992, ostensibly as a countermeasure to the nuclear programs of China and Russia. Last month, officials said no tests were planned, but, in

By Akimoto Daisuke

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Twisting India’s Chicken’s Neck

Indian officials claim that China is continuing its build-up along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between India and China in the Galwan Valley of eastern Ladakh region. New satellite imagery supports the claim that not only is the People’s Liberation Army holding ground

By Syed Fazl-e-Haider

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A high-risk, low-reward defence posture

For all the commentary generated by the release of the Defence Strategic Update and Force Structure Plan, which outline Australia’s defence policy and capability priorities for the next decade and beyond, it is strange that little attention has been paid to one particular phrase that the

By Victor Abramowicz

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India-China conflict: A move from the Himalayas to the high seas?

Last month’s clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh was the most significant conflict between the two countries since 1967. Despite signs of a partial tactical pullback in some places, there is considerable risk of further confrontations and even escalation along the disputed border.

By David Brewster

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Stoking the fire of Asia-Pacific missile proliferation

In the name of keeping the nation safe, Australia is joining the Asia-Pacific’s accelerating missile race. However, not only will it not keep the nation safe, it will stoke an uncontrolled fire that is engulfing the region’s strategic landscape. The wise response would be to throw everything at

By Tanya Ogilvie-White

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Australia must enter the grey zone to counter threats of the future

Originally published in The Canberra Times

By Ben Scott

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Australia’s Strategic Update: What it means for Indonesia

One might assume that Australia’s announcement of a significant increase in defence funding and move to a more assertive defence posture would be welcomed by Jakarta. After all, as the old proverb goes, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, and Indonesia certainly has its own challenges with

By Greta Nabbs-Keller

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Unspoken danger in buying more missiles to defend Australia

Originally published in the Sydney Morning Herald

By Sam Roggeveen

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Defence Strategic Update 2020: A first assessment

The Defence Strategic Update 2020 launched yesterday in Canberra is a notably candid assessment of the strategic challenges Australia faces and the measures with which the government plans to meet them. It explicitly declares “Australia’s ability – and willingness – to project military power

By James Goldrick

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After ASEAN summit, little change on the South China Sea

On 26 June, the leaders of the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held their 36th annual summit by video conference, after the in-person summit scheduled for April was postponed because of Covid-19. The pandemic was the main topic of discussions. Also high on the

By Mark Valencia

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Emerging From COVID: Policy Responses To The Pandemic

In this new feature, Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation’s — and the world’s — successful emergence from the pandemic

By Alex Oliver, Natasha Kassam, Richard McGregor, Roland Rajah, Ben Scott, Sam Roggeveen, Hervé Lemahieu , Stephen Grenville, Alyssa Leng, John Edwards, Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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Emerging from COVID: Policy Responses to the Pandemic

Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation's — and the world's — successful emergence from the pandemic

By Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Hervé Lemahieu , Alyssa Leng, Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, Ben Scott

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How to fight China's cyber-warriors

We must persuade Beijing that it should do it as it would be done by in cyber space. Rules are much better than retaliation. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review.

By Ben Scott

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Lessons from the India-China border clashes

The India-China border clash on the night of 15 June, the worst in over half a century, is nothing less than a chapter break in the relationship between the two countries. A dynamic that was, at the best of times, fraught with mutual suspicion is now on the cusp of becoming downright adversarial.

By Abhijnan Rej

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Diego Garcia: India’s conundrum

The tug-of-war between the United Kingdom and Mauritius over Chagos archipelago – and the US military base on Diego Garcia – is hotting up. In 2019, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution which endorsed a non binding decision from the International Court of Justice that

By Abhijit Singh

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It’s not OK: White supremacy and Australia’s security services

At the Black Lives Matter protest in Sydney last Friday night, a NSW police officer was caught on camera flashing the “OK” hand gesture as he passed by a group. This act has ignited a debate about whether or not the officer was signalling support for white supremacist ideology, as this hand

By Jennifer Percival

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Arms control or out of control?

One of the most disturbing developments in international politics lately has gone mostly unnoticed by most commentators. Some will be aware that President Donald Trump has withdrawn – or plans to withdraw – the United States from specific arms control treaties. But what is troubling is that

By Marianne Hanson

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NATO: Rebranding exercise or new product launch?

It is hardly surprising that many foreign policy developments that would normally feature in the news have lately been demoted well below the headlines, as domestic turmoil in the United States has dominated conversations across the country and the globe. Under more ordinary circumstances, two

By Gorana Grgic

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The case for Australian strategic ambiguity

It is June 2021. An American destroyer sailing near a reef held by Beijing in the South China Sea has had a collision with a Chinese frigate that was attempting to drive it off. Both vessels have suffered multiple fatalities and, damaged, are at anchor near the reef. While who was at fault is

By Victor Abramowicz

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India-Australia strategic partnership: Leveraging aerospace capacity

The forthcoming virtual summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison assumes considerable significance for an India-Australia strategic partnership, particularly as it comes against the backdrop of heightened friction with China for both countries.

By M Matheswaran

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Need To Know: Brett McGurk on America’s strategy to defeat ISIS

Given the increasingly familiarity of video conferencing during working from home arrangements, we thought to take the opportunity to commence a new series of interviews with key policy makers and observers in world affairs. To kick off, we were fortunate to interview Brett McGurk, currently a

By Rodger Shanahan

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Push India towards the Quad to deter China

A four-country bulwark against Beijing's regional dominance is an idea whose time has come. To make it work, New Delhi must be convinced to join in. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Lavina Lee

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Mauritius, Diego Garcia and the small matter of nukes

Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia is a key part of the US global military network. The dispute over sovereignty of Diego Garcia is heating up, with the UK coming under increasing pressure to cede it to Mauritius. Mauritius has indicated that if it regained control over Diego Garcia, it would allow

By Samuel Bashfield

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A Yazidi genocide trial commences – a Hezbollah ban contemplated

Remarkably, for all the international attention on the plight of the Yazidi back in 2014 as Islamic State ravaged Iraq, it has taken until now, six years later, to bring the first charges of genocide. A trial commenced last month in a German court of a man accused of murdering a Yazidi girl traded

By Rodger Shanahan

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Islands of opportunity: Where India and Australia can work together

As India and Australia prepare for a virtual summit next month between prime ministers amid the coronavirus pandemic, a possible strategic initiative could involve the cooperative use of their respective island territories in the Indian Ocean for strategic purposes. India’s Andaman and Nicobar

By Darshana Baruah

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We’re all losers in the space arms race

Politics does make for unlikely bedfellows. Last month, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it had signed a joint declaration with the Republic of Burundi, whereby both agreed not to be the “first” to place weapons in space. Two weeks later Russia conducted an anti-satellite missile test

By Sarah O’Connor

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As Jakarta trims defence, Beijing makes waves in the South China Sea

The Covid-19 outbreak has hit hard for Southeast Asian economies. Anticipating more shocks to come, several countries have already moved to cut defence spending, seeing the military as a budget line that can be readily reduced. Indonesia, for example, has announced it will slash its defence budget

By Aristyo Rizka Darmawan

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Diego Garcia: An American perspective

Diego Garcia is the United States’ major geostrategic and logistics support base in the Indian Ocean. Sovereignty over the island is increasingly being challenged by Mauritius, but it seems unlikely that Washington would be interested in a deal that would facilitate its transfer. The base has

By Michael McDevitt

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To act, or not? Al-Shabaab’s response to a Covid-19 crisis in Somalia

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, regional security agencies have flagged the potential for a new wave of violent extremism to emerge within Somalia. World Health Organisation figures show that Somalia has had more than 1200 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and more than 50 deaths. However, the

By Stephanie Carver, Samantha Kruber

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What’s missing from the Strategic Update

Foreign Editor for The Australian, Greg Sheridan, got his hands on a copy of the yet-to-be-released Defence Strategic Update, and he wrote about it over the weekend. The Strategic Update is yet to pass through cabinet, but if Sheridan’s account is accurate and the recommendations are

By Sam Roggeveen

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