Defence & Security

The strategic order and the nature of conflict are changing. Security competition between nations and military strategy are growing in complexity even as new transnational challenges deepen. The Lowy Institute’s experts in security and defence look at changing strategic relations, security architecture, nuclear strategy, military capabilities and defence and intelligence policy.

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Australia’s Strategic Update: What it means for Indonesia

One might assume that Australia’s announcement of a significant increase in defence funding and move to a more assertive defence posture would be welcomed by Jakarta. After all, as the old proverb goes, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, and Indonesia certainly has its own challenges with

By Greta Nabbs-Keller

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Unspoken danger in buying more missiles to defend Australia

Originally published in the Sydney Morning Herald

By Sam Roggeveen

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Defence Strategic Update 2020: A first assessment

The Defence Strategic Update 2020 launched yesterday in Canberra is a notably candid assessment of the strategic challenges Australia faces and the measures with which the government plans to meet them. It explicitly declares “Australia’s ability – and willingness – to project military power

By James Goldrick

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After ASEAN summit, little change on the South China Sea

On 26 June, the leaders of the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held their 36th annual summit by video conference, after the in-person summit scheduled for April was postponed because of Covid-19. The pandemic was the main topic of discussions. Also high on the

By Mark Valencia

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Emerging From COVID: Policy Responses To The Pandemic

In this new feature, Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation’s — and the world’s — successful emergence from the pandemic

By Alex Oliver, Natasha Kassam, Richard McGregor, Roland Rajah, Ben Scott, Sam Roggeveen, Hervé Lemahieu , Stephen Grenville, Alyssa Leng, John Edwards, Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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Lessons from the India-China border clashes

The India-China border clash on the night of 15 June, the worst in over half a century, is nothing less than a chapter break in the relationship between the two countries. A dynamic that was, at the best of times, fraught with mutual suspicion is now on the cusp of becoming downright adversarial.

By Abhijnan Rej

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Diego Garcia: India’s conundrum

The tug-of-war between the United Kingdom and Mauritius over Chagos archipelago – and the US military base on Diego Garcia – is hotting up. In 2019, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution which endorsed a non binding decision from the International Court of Justice that

By Abhijit Singh

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It’s not OK: White supremacy and Australia’s security services

At the Black Lives Matter protest in Sydney last Friday night, a NSW police officer was caught on camera flashing the “OK” hand gesture as he passed by a group. This act has ignited a debate about whether or not the officer was signalling support for white supremacist ideology, as this hand

By Jennifer Percival

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Arms control or out of control?

One of the most disturbing developments in international politics lately has gone mostly unnoticed by most commentators. Some will be aware that President Donald Trump has withdrawn – or plans to withdraw – the United States from specific arms control treaties. But what is troubling is that

By Marianne Hanson

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NATO: Rebranding exercise or new product launch?

It is hardly surprising that many foreign policy developments that would normally feature in the news have lately been demoted well below the headlines, as domestic turmoil in the United States has dominated conversations across the country and the globe. Under more ordinary circumstances, two

By Gorana Grgic

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The case for Australian strategic ambiguity

It is June 2021. An American destroyer sailing near a reef held by Beijing in the South China Sea has had a collision with a Chinese frigate that was attempting to drive it off. Both vessels have suffered multiple fatalities and, damaged, are at anchor near the reef. While who was at fault is

By Victor Abramowicz

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India-Australia strategic partnership: Leveraging aerospace capacity

The forthcoming virtual summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison assumes considerable significance for an India-Australia strategic partnership, particularly as it comes against the backdrop of heightened friction with China for both countries.

By M Matheswaran

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Need To Know: Brett McGurk on America’s strategy to defeat ISIS

Given the increasingly familiarity of video conferencing during working from home arrangements, we thought to take the opportunity to commence a new series of interviews with key policy makers and observers in world affairs. To kick off, we were fortunate to interview Brett McGurk, currently a

By Rodger Shanahan

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Push India towards the Quad to deter China

A four-country bulwark against Beijing's regional dominance is an idea whose time has come. To make it work, New Delhi must be convinced to join in. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Lavina Lee

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Mauritius, Diego Garcia and the small matter of nukes

Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia is a key part of the US global military network. The dispute over sovereignty of Diego Garcia is heating up, with the UK coming under increasing pressure to cede it to Mauritius. Mauritius has indicated that if it regained control over Diego Garcia, it would allow

By Samuel Bashfield

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A Yazidi genocide trial commences – a Hezbollah ban contemplated

Remarkably, for all the international attention on the plight of the Yazidi back in 2014 as Islamic State ravaged Iraq, it has taken until now, six years later, to bring the first charges of genocide. A trial commenced last month in a German court of a man accused of murdering a Yazidi girl traded

By Rodger Shanahan

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Islands of opportunity: Where India and Australia can work together

As India and Australia prepare for a virtual summit next month between prime ministers amid the coronavirus pandemic, a possible strategic initiative could involve the cooperative use of their respective island territories in the Indian Ocean for strategic purposes. India’s Andaman and Nicobar

By Darshana Baruah

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We’re all losers in the space arms race

Politics does make for unlikely bedfellows. Last month, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it had signed a joint declaration with the Republic of Burundi, whereby both agreed not to be the “first” to place weapons in space. Two weeks later Russia conducted an anti-satellite missile test

By Sarah O’Connor

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As Jakarta trims defence, Beijing makes waves in the South China Sea

The Covid-19 outbreak has hit hard for Southeast Asian economies. Anticipating more shocks to come, several countries have already moved to cut defence spending, seeing the military as a budget line that can be readily reduced. Indonesia, for example, has announced it will slash its defence budget

By Aristyo Rizka Darmawan

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Diego Garcia: An American perspective

Diego Garcia is the United States’ major geostrategic and logistics support base in the Indian Ocean. Sovereignty over the island is increasingly being challenged by Mauritius, but it seems unlikely that Washington would be interested in a deal that would facilitate its transfer. The base has

By Michael McDevitt

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To act, or not? Al-Shabaab’s response to a Covid-19 crisis in Somalia

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, regional security agencies have flagged the potential for a new wave of violent extremism to emerge within Somalia. World Health Organisation figures show that Somalia has had more than 1200 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and more than 50 deaths. However, the

By Stephanie Carver, Samantha Kruber

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What’s missing from the Strategic Update

Foreign Editor for The Australian, Greg Sheridan, got his hands on a copy of the yet-to-be-released Defence Strategic Update, and he wrote about it over the weekend. The Strategic Update is yet to pass through cabinet, but if Sheridan’s account is accurate and the recommendations are

By Sam Roggeveen

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Weight on the scales

A few months back – only in January, yet seemingly a very different time – Mike Mazarr and I offered some initial reflections on America’s and China’s contrasting “theories of influence”. The article prompted a series of contributions, including an initial rejoinder from Sam Roggeveen

By Ali Wyne

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With US Afghan exit, Russia eyes Central Asian security

Three months have passed since the United States and the Taliban signed an “Agreement for bringing peace to Afghanistan”. For the Americans, it aims to put an end to the US military intervention in Afghanistan, which has lasted more than 18 years. The provisions of the agreement stipulate a

By Azima Akhmatova

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Thailand: Killings of insurgents ends southern separatist ceasefire

Insurgents have resumed attacks in Thailand’s south after Thai security forces killed three rebels during a ceasefire declared unilaterally by the main separatist group, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN). The raid bodes ill for a quick political solution. But insurgents will stay focussed on

By Craig Keating

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Discontinued: America’s Continuous Bomber Presence

Since 2004, the US Air Force has rotated heavy bombers through the Western Pacific island of Guam. But no more. The Continuous Bomber Presence (CBP), which started in President George W. Bush’s first term and continued through President Barack Obama’s two terms, has now been abruptly terminated

By Peter Layton

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The missing piece in the debate about the future regional order

With cruise ships banned from ports around the world, it would not be a stretch to wonder about the impact the coronavirus pandemic will have on future military movement as well. Such questions matter, for the practice of sending warships on visits to foreign ports has been an enduring feature of

By Nurliana Kamaruddin, Jan Vincent Galas

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The black, white and grey in defining the “rules-based order”

I joined the Lowy Institute this month to direct the new project on “Australia’s National Security and the Rules-Based International Order”. In talking to friends about the move it’s quickly become apparent that my new job description is not self-explanatory. “I get the national security

By Ben Scott

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Beyond the buzz: A primer on swarms

In the world of emerging technologies, few concepts evoke excitement like swarms. The power of the swarm is in its natural formation – from bees, to schooling fish and flocking birds – the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Swarms can achieve far more complex tasks than single entities

By Maaike Verbruggen

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Troubled waters: China’s sovereign ambition in the shadows of Covid-19

Around midnight on 2 April, a Vietnamese fishing vessel sank in the disputed waters in the South China Sea after allegedly being rammed by the Chinese coastguard. Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded swiftly, stating that the act had violated its country’s sovereignty. A similar

By Trinh Le

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Islands of ire: The South Korea–Japan dispute

In early 2020, Japan reopened its National Museum of Territory and Sovereignty. Displays at the museum in Tokyo assert that islands disputed by Japan, South Korea and North Korea are Japanese territory and refer to these islands as Takeshima. South Korea’s government, which also claims sovereignty

By Olivia Tasevski

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ISIS looks to prosper in a world distracted by the virus

The coronavirus pandemic has hit the heart of Europe. The severity of the virus has forced policymakers to shift their priorities almost exclusively to the home front. As a result, international security concerns, particularly the fight against the remnants of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, which had until

By Kareem Salem

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If this is war, that Zoom call is part of the battle

In recent weeks, several world leaders, including US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, have invoked combat-related terms to summarise efforts to contain and contest the novel coronavirus and its effects. As each day we track the progress of casualties, emergency

By Jason Israel

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Safety of life at sea: Covid‑19 and naval operations

The potential impact of Covid-19 on naval operations has been highlighted by reports that over half of the 2,000-plus sailors aboard the French carrier Charles de Gaulle have tested positive for COVID-19. The ship left a NATO exercise ten days early and returned to port in Toulon to allow

By Sam Bateman

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Covid-19 ceasefire unlikely to hasten peace in Thailand’s south

The main insurgent group in Thailand’s south is stopping attacks to allow a stronger response to Covid-19 in the area. But it’s unlikely to bring political settlement closer unless security forces reciprocate — something they have been loath to do in the past. On 3 April, the Barisan

By Craig Keating

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Fighting corona will strain US military capacity in the Indo-Pacific

Captain Brett E. Crozier, the recently deposed commander of America’s pandemic-stricken aircraft carrier the USS Theodore Roosevelt, was absolutely right when he told his superiors that “sailors do not need to die” from the Covid-19 outbreak onboard. But he was well off the mark in his

By Ashley Townshend, Jim Golby

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A French perspective on Australia’s role in the Indian Ocean

Every government is struggling with the Covid-19 crisis, with one eye to the post-coronavirus world. In this context, it may be worth looking at the French perception of Australia and their prospects, and need, for enhanced cooperation after the crisis. France increasingly sees Australia as a key

By Frédéric Grare

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Beyond Covid, Australia’s big stake in India’s military reorganisation

Covid-19 will no doubt have many long-term consequences for our region that we can now only begin to imagine. One consequence that is easy to imagine in the face of a distracted and internally focused United States will be Australia’s greater reliance on regional security partners, such as Japan

By David Brewster

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Counterterrorism: A woman’s game

It’s often said you can’t be what you can’t see. Whether or not that’s true (hello … what about the pioneers in their field?), shining a light on the role of women in male-dominated professions has become mainstay of International Women’s Day. National security, counterterrorism, and the

By Lydia Khalil

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Taiwan Flashpoint: What Australia Can Do to Stop the Coming Taiwan Crisis

Australian diplomacy could ease rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait, if Australian policymakers rediscovered an appetite for involvement in the flashpoint

By Brendan Taylor

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Typology of Terror Interactive

This project documents the characteristics of Australians’ contribution to global jihad in the Islamic State era. The dataset represents the largest open-source examination of Australian terrorist offenders to date. It collates data on Australian citizens and residents charged with terrorism

By Rodger Shanahan, Jennifer Percival

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Power and legitimacy go hand in hand

I was delighted to read Sam Roggeveen’s thoughtful reply to The Interpreter article by Ali Wyne and myself about the relative qualities of US and Chinese power. Roggeveen makes good points; I agree, for example, that US military power has been critical to the post-war order. But I remain convinced

By Michael J. Mazarr

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Being one of the boys in the military

The ruling this week by the Indian Supreme Court that allowed women to command troops in India’s armed forces comes as the latest in a series of gender reforms in democratic militaries. Despite the protestations of the Indian government that troops were not ready to follow female commanders, that

By Cate Carter

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Australia can’t continue to divide the Indian Ocean in two

Australia’s definition of the “Indo-Pacific” currently includes much of the Pacific Ocean as well as the eastern Indian Ocean, but excludes the western Indian Ocean. This is no longer a sensible or useful way of defining our region. Australian policymakers need to include the island states of

By David Brewster

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Pushing the Philippines‑US alliance over the cliff

The termination of the 1998 Philippines-US Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) initiated by the Duterte administration will mark a historic disruption of American power projection in the Asia-Pacific, and deal a serious blow to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea–based maritime order

By Jay Batongbacal

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US-China competition in Asia: Who risks wins

If Australians could rely on the US to remain the uncontested most powerful state in our region, and the preferred security partner for our neighbours, we would be mad not to want a future like that. Maintenance of the post-Second World War American-led order in Asia has required major sacrifices

By Sam Roggeveen

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Middle East Peace Plan: A once in a lifetime deal, not in a good way

For close observers of business in Australia, one particular moment has become folklore, the time Australia’s then richest man Kerry Packer sold off television station Channel Nine for $1 billion – a price seen far in excess of its value at the time in the 1980s – to a man who would later go

By Rodger Shanahan

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India: Navigating the straits of capability

Early in the new year, India’s defence industry witnessed a rare moment of glory when the domestically developed light combat aircraft made its first-ever landing on the navy’s aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya. It was a major achievement for the Indian navy – a force that has spearheaded

By Prakash Gopal

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The impact of accuracy

Of all the unfortunate events of last week’s hostilities between Tehran and Washington, the most tragic was undoubtedly Iran’s use of a surface-to-air missile to shoot down an airliner, killing 176 people. But this accident was not the most strategically significant development of those days

By Victor Abramowicz

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Australia’s new strategic geography

Australia’s strategic geography is not what it used to be. Technology has made the “sea-air gap”, an artefact treasured since the 1980s by a generation of Australian strategic planners, obsolete. Three developments compromise the idea that geography offers Australia defensive depth and

By Mark O'Neill

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