Why ASEAN is unprepared for a Taiwan crisis

ASEAN has built numerous institutions to handle regional emergencies, but it cannot coordinate them well enough to respond when a crisis hits, according to a new Lowy Institute report.

Dr Hunter Marston’s report, Can ASEAN agree on a playbook for Indo-Pacific security?, draws on a two-day Track 2 dialogue convened by the Lowy Institute in June, which brought together participants from Southeast Asia, Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

The report shows that ASEAN’s centrality is under pressure from several threats, including the conflict in Myanmar, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, threats to freedom of maritime navigation and vulnerabilities in global supply chains.

A crisis over Taiwan would be ASEAN’s most difficult test.

About one million ASEAN nationals live in Taiwan. But Dr Marston shows that ASEAN has no agreed framework for evacuating them in the event of an armed conflict or blockade.

Meanwhile, any conflict over Taiwan would significantly affect the security of neighbouring states, including the Philippines and Japan.

“ASEAN’s main challenge is not a lack of institutions, but rather a lack of coordination among those institutions,” writes Dr Marston. “It lacks the coordination, trust, and political will among member states to respond effectively to current and emerging security challenges.”

“ASEAN should not wait to coordinate contingency plans for future crises,” Dr Marston writes.

The report recommends ASEAN:

• Set objective, pre-agreed criteria for launching citizen evacuation operations, including for a scenario such as a conflict over Taiwan.
• Extend the ASEAN Militaries Ready Group mandate beyond disaster relief to cover evacuation, maritime contingencies, logistics and strategic responses.
• Harmonise national laws for responding to hostile acts, such as undersea cable damage, and extend the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea to the undersea domain.
• Increase Secretariat staffing and funding, including support for a dedicated crisis management and strategic planning unit.
• Broaden tabletop exercises beyond the military to include diplomatic, government and private-sector participants.

The report concludes that preserving ASEAN’s centrality in an increasingly fractured global order depends on the bloc’s capacity to speak with one voice when it matters most.

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