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Economic optimism: Pessimism about the economy hits record highsEconomic optimism: Pessimism about the economy hits record highs
The US–Israeli military campaign against Iran was in its early stages when this Poll was conducted (2–15 March) and the shock to global energy markets was becoming apparent.
Prior to the energy price shocks, and before this Poll was taken, Australia’s monthly rate of inflation had exceeded the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2–3% for seven consecutive months. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, labour productivity — a measure correlated to living standards — has been near zero since the 2022–23 financial year.
Against this backdrop, six in ten Australians (59%) say they are pessimistic about Australia’s economic performance over the next five years, a 12-point increase from the 2025 Poll and a 22-point increase since the 2022 Poll. This is the highest recorded result on this question in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll — 11 points above the rate of economic pessimism registered during the Covid pandemic in 2020, and 46 points above that recorded after the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
About the author
Charles Lyons-Jones
Charles Lyons-Jones is a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Foreign Policy and Public Opinion Program. He oversees the annual Lowy Institute Poll and the Global Diplomacy Index.
