In June, Australia and 57 other countries will come together in Milan, Italy for the 47th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting. This annual meeting of the Antarctic Treaty parties will occur at a time when the “international rules-based order” is under significant threat, via protectionist trade policies and the annexation of territory by conquest. It is essential that this meeting protects the Antarctic Treaty System as a longstanding and successful example of international rules in action.
Australia has significant national interests in Antarctica. Australia was one of the 12 founding countries of the Antarctic Treaty 1959, establishing the Antarctic Treaty System which has governed the region over the last six decades. The Treaty protects Australia’s position regarding its sovereignty claim to more than 42% of the continent. Australia also benefits strategically from the Treaty stating that “Antarctica shall be used for peaceful purposes only” and there will be a prohibition on nuclear explosions in the region. The Treaty facilitates scientific cooperation in Antarctica to which Australia contributes.
However, to protect those interests, there are three key geopolitical challenges that Australia will need to take account of in engaging in the upcoming Milan meeting.
Australia should engage with the United States to register the importance, strategically, of continued support for the Antarctic Treaty System especially at this time of global contestability.
First, the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings have historically been regarded as “exceptional” in the sense that countries have worked hard to keep wider political issues and disagreements from intruding. However, this exceptionalism fell away during 2022–23 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was raised directly. While Russia’s action should rightly be condemned, the tension from this armed conflict is affecting the positions that countries are taking on key issues. This includes applications by Belarus and Canada to become “Consultative Parties” – i.e. countries able to participate in the decision-making process – at the meeting.
A failure of the Antarctic Treaty meeting to reach consensus on such important issues invites public criticism that it is failing to live up to its decision-making role in governing the Antarctic region. Building on such criticisms, and with a particular concern about climate change and other environmental impacts, some civil society groups have proposed radically new governance arrangements based on “rights of nature”. Australia will need to continue supporting the integrity of the Antarctic Treaty System in this new politically charged meeting environment.
Second, the near future role of the United States in Antarctic affairs is unclear. The United States has the largest Antarctic science and logistics program and operates three large research stations, including the McMurdo Station in the Ross Sea and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station. However, US commitment to the region appears to be scaling back, with the second Trump administration recently announcing significant funding cuts to US science and logistics, including for the McMurdo Station and the US National Science Foundation programs.
The specific impact of these cuts will become more evident over the next year. However, this move by the United States may well be viewed by other Antarctic countries as a weakening of its commitment to the Antarctic Treaty System, which dates back to its inception when President Dwight Eisenhower initiated the 1959 “Washington Conference” which formed the Antarctic Treaty. US influence in Antarctica and at the Consultative Meetings may well diminish over the next four years.
Australia will need to quickly adjust to this new diplomatic reality, as the United States has traditionally been an important partner on Antarctic matters. Australia should engage with the United States to register the importance, strategically, of continued support for the Antarctic Treaty System especially at this time of global contestability.
Third, China and the Russian Federation are expanding their scientific and logistical footprint in the region. In 2023 China commenced operation of its fifth research station, the year-round Qinling Station in the Ross Sea area. China has also filed documents for the Milan meeting detailing plans to construct a sixth Antarctic summer research station at Cox Point in Marie Byrd Land. The Russian Federation has also announced plans to recommission the Russkaya Station in Marie Byrd Land, which has been dormant since 1990. It will be operated year-round by the Russian space agency Roscosmos to monitor Russian satellites and spacecraft. The new Chinese station at Cox Point will be located only a short distance of approximately 17 kilometres from Russkaya. Marie Byrd Land is also the area of Antarctica in which the United States has a deep historic connection of discovery, mapping, science and operations by the US military.
Together, these announcements by China and Russia may well signal an intention for closer coordination of their scientific and logistics presence in Antarctica. A closer relationship between China and Russia in Antarctica would also be consistent with strengthening of their wider security and economic relationship. This is significant for Australia, as China and Russia have a recent record of blocking key decisions on marine spatial protection issues in the Antarctic Treaty meeting and related meetings of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources.
While these developments are not a direct threat to the Antarctic Treaty, it will be important for Australia and like-minded states to work hard to coordinate actions to build consensus within the Milan Antarctic meeting on key sticking points, such as Consultative Party applications and threatened species protection. Continuing to strengthen Australia’s scientific and logistical commitments in Antarctica is also vital to maintain a position of influence in the region.
