AUKUS sees the sea – not everyone will

The first Pillar II project is about undersea drones, but the harder question is who gets to see what they find.

Nicolas Groffman

3 June 20264 min read

The first project under AUKUS Pillar II announced after a joint Australia–United Kingdom–United States defence minister’s meeting in Singapore on 30 May is being presented as a story about underwater drones: payloads, sensors, weapons systems and enabling technologies for uncrewed undersea vehicles.

But the more revealing questions are about the picture those systems will produce.

Who decides what is seen at sea? Who receives raw data, who receives only the finished assessment, and who is left outside the room?

Maritime domain awareness is not a neutral public good. In the Indo-Pacific, it may involve tracking “dark” vessels, detecting coercion around disputed places, monitoring submarine movement, or identifying anomalies around ports, cables and sea lanes. Sensors follow threat priorities. Algorithms notice some patterns more readily than others. Access rules determine who sees a live feed and who just receives a briefing afterwards.

AUKUS is becoming an architecture for deciding whose maritime picture counts. Pillar II already spans undersea capabilities, artificial intelligence, autonomy, quantum, cyber, electronic warfare and information-sharing. Its first big project makes that more concrete: sensors, weapons systems and command-and-control technologies are to be developed for uncrewed undersea fleets across the three AUKUS partners. A system that fuses sonar, satellite, electronic, acoustic and open-source data will privilege those who set the standards, own the networks and accredit the users.

That means a layered club rather than a flat partnership.

In plain terms, if you’re inside AUKUS, life is easier; if you’re outside, it’s becoming harder.

At the centre sit the three AUKUS countries, and within them a smaller group of agencies, commands, laboratories and contractors able to work with the most sensitive feeds. The new project underlines the point: the announced payloads and enabling systems are for Australian, British and American uncrewed undersea vehicle fleets, not a wider regional system.

Around that core are close partners – Japan and South Korea – that may contribute capabilities or receive selected products. Further out are Pacific, Southeast Asian and Indian Ocean states participating through fusion centres, coast guard cooperation or capacity-building. They may benefit from better warning and enforcement, but are unlikely to influence how the system is built, what it collects, or when collection is withheld.

This hierarchy will matter in ambiguous situations. A coast guard might be told that a vessel near a subsea cable is suspicious, without seeing the acoustic signature, satellite track or electronic intercept. A fusion centre might receive a warning about a dark vessel near a disputed reef, but not the data or model that generated it.

These details shape whether partners feel informed or bossed around.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles, centre, at an AUKUS Defence Ministers’ Meeting in Singapore with UK Secretary of Defence John Healey, left, and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth (Kym Smith/Defence Imagery)

No state will share every undersea method or data stream, particularly where data reveals the sensor. AUKUS partners rightly worry about espionage and exposed capabilities. The problem is that maritime cooperation often implies a more equal model than the technology permits. “Information sharing” can mean a jointly generated picture, but also one side providing the interpretation and another being asked to trust it. Sovereignty may be exercised not only by patrolling a sea lane, but by contesting the data layer through which that lane is understood.

The legal and regulatory plumbing reinforces this hierarchy. Australia’s 2024 defence trade control reforms created an AUKUS licence-free environment, removing many permit requirements for transfers of controlled goods and technology among the three states. But they also tightened controls on transfers of sensitive technology and services to non-exempt foreign persons. In plain terms, if you’re inside AUKUS, life is easier; if you’re outside, it’s becoming harder.

The maritime picture will still be shaped by admirals, but henceforth also by contracts, export-control classifications, authorised-user lists and cybersecurity standards. A trilateral sensor may generate data useful to wider partners, but sharing it may reveal the sensor itself: its location, range, sensitivity or acoustic library. An autonomous platform might collect information of regional value, yet remain tied to rules protecting the platform, payload, and source.

The challenge for the AUKUS partners is not simply to build better maritime awareness. It is to decide how much asymmetry the regional order can bear. If the system is too closed, it risks looking like exclusive surveillance over waters where many states have legitimate interests. If too open, it risks compromising the sources and technologies that make it valuable. The answer is not to pretend that all partners can be equal users of all data, but instead to be honest about tiers of access and movement between them.

AUKUS should therefore develop political standards for maritime data access alongside technical standards for detection. They need not be fully public, but the principles should be clear: what partners may see, what they may challenge, what they may help build, and what conditions bring them closer to the core. Partners who cannot receive raw feeds might still receive confidence levels and ways to question assessments. States that meet higher cybersecurity, export-control and operational standards might receive deeper access. The point is not to eliminate hierarchy, but to govern it.

AUKUS will change the maritime balance when its partners decide who is trusted to see the sea as they see it. The future common operating picture may be common in name, but not in fact – unless the politics of access are treated as seriously as the technology of detection.

About the author

Nicolas Groffman

Nicolas Groffman is general counsel of Fitzroy exports, a defence firm,and founder of Harligan Ltd., an investigation company

Topics

AUKUS Defence & security