Australia faces the real possibility of a minority government following the upcoming federal election, expected to be called within weeks, with recent polling putting the combined primary vote of minor parties and independents at 28 per cent.
Unable to command a majority in their own right in the 151-seat lower house, both major parties – Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition – would have to rely on support from minor parties or independents. Such a scenario is a departure from the norm: Australians have only elected one parliament resulting in a minority government since 1940, when the modern two-party system took hold.
So, what might this mean for Australia’s foreign policy and national security?
During Canberra’s last full-term minority government from 2010 to 2013, foreign policy was a relative sideshow. The horse-trading between the major parties and independents to hold power focused on local infrastructure commitments and climate policy.
Surveying the foreign policy pronouncements of minor parties and independents gives a sense of what Australians might expect in the wake of the election.
But in 2025, international relations and security sit at the centre of domestic politics. A second Trump administration is sending economic and cultural shockwaves through Canberra. Meanwhile, the conflict in Gaza has reverberated to Australia, generating threats to social cohesion and intense political debate.
Normally, little of an Australian government’s foreign policy agenda requires legislative approval, with the power to conduct foreign relations and defence being Crown prerogatives exercised by the executive. However, with the leverage to choose who forms government and whether their agenda is implemented, independents and minor parties could make demands of foreign policy in return for their support.
Surveying the foreign policy pronouncements of minor parties and independents gives a sense of what Australians might expect in the wake of the election.
The Greens want to cancel AUKUS, renegotiate the US alliance, pursue an “independent” foreign policy, and sanction the Israeli government. They could realistically win two to four seats.
Current independent MPs – including the seven “Teal” women – have understandably been preoccupied by domestic matters, but have been forced to take a range of stances on Israel, Gaza and antisemitism. Several are sceptical of AUKUS. Some supported Julian Assange. Progressive climate and refugee policies were also a centrepiece of many of their campaigns in 2022.
Of these independent MPs, former ABC foreign correspondent Zoe Daniel has perhaps the widest range on international affairs, having called for Australian foreign and defence policy to be more independent of the United States and critiquing Trump’s cabinet nominees.
New Teal hopefuls nominated in other seats have meanwhile kept their cards close to their chest on foreign policy.
Recent polling suggests this loose grouping of independents could win eight seats.
Then there’s the wildcard prospect of independent candidates, Ziad Basyouny and Ahmend Ouf, targeting the western Sydney seats of Blaxland and Watson, which have large Muslim populations, and are presently held by Labor ministers Jason Clare and Tony Burke. Both Basyouny and Ouf have made Gaza a pillar of their campaigns, capitalising on community disenchantment with Labor’s response to the conflict.
Recent polling indicates the Coalition could win 73 seats (76 are required to form government). Opposition leader Peter Dutton has nominated independents Bob Katter, Dai Le and Allegra Spender as his preferred allies.
If a motley crew of Greens and independents do become kingmakers following the election, both major parties will face a complex terrain of policy preferences to cobble together to form and then maintain a minority government.
Katter is a stalwart of Australian politics with eclectic and sometimes unpredictable views. He is hawkish on China and strongly supports Israel while levelling criticism at Hamas.
Le, a first-time independent, has reservations about the cost of the AUKUS submarines while also sympathising with Palestinians fleeing Gaza.
Spender is one of the most prominent Teals, but has a connection to the Liberal Party through her father who served as an MP, and her grandfather who was foreign minister, ambassador to the United States, and an International Court of Justice judge. She has been outspoken on the conflict in Gaza and antisemitism, especially given the large Jewish population in her electorate, but quiet on other foreign policy issues.
If a motley crew of Greens and independents do become kingmakers following the election, both major parties will face a complex terrain of policy preferences to cobble together to form and then maintain a minority government. The minor parties and independents would also need to decide their negotiating positions and the priority of their policy demands. For some, foreign policy issues – especially around Israel and Gaza – could be top of the list. For others, they are more likely to expend their political capital on domestic issues and advocating for their electorates.
Recent polling puts the Coalition in the box seat to form government, only needing a few crossbench votes. Working with Katter, Le and Spender, any major concessions on foreign policy or national security appear unlikely to be the price for winning their support. If the Coalition had to rely on the support of more Teals, however, this could see a softening of the party’s stance on migration and a more progressive climate policy.
Labor meanwhile would need to secure more independent and minor party votes to form government, probably relying on a combination of Greens and Teal independents. Policy towards Israel and Gaza, as well as the closeness of Australia’s defence relationship with the United States, could conceivably come into play in this scenario.
If predictions of a hung parliament are realised, Australians will face a tense wait to see who forms government – and on what terms. Foreign policy could well be a big part of that.
