Defence & security, explained.
Puget Sound Naval Shipyard & Intermediate Maintenance Facility in Bremerton, Washington (Eugene Oliver/DVIDS)
Budgets and force plans mean little if no one can surge production when it counts.
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Can the US train enough welders to win a war?Can the US train enough welders to win a war?
When national security commentators talk about industrial capacity, they often discuss abstractions – budgets, force plans, and procurement goals. The missing piece is people. Television host Mike Rowe, best known for Dirty Jobs, a show where he tried to learn the trade of difficult but essential roles across the workforce, once said that “closing the skills gap is a matter of national security.” He was right. Machinery and money mean little if no one can build and repair weapons during war. Skilled trades are a strategic enabler that turn appropriations into output and shortens timelines when production must surge.
I thought about this during a tour of Ford’s historic Rouge complex in Detroit, a flagship of vertically integrated production. In its heyday, the Rouge took iron ore, coal, rubber, and sand in one gate and produced automobiles out the other. During the Second World War, the complex pivoted to war production – building jeeps and engines for tanks and aircraft. A sister plant about 35 kilometres away mass‑produced B-24 bombers – roughly one per hour at peak.
Policy must focus on the people who build and repair.
The story is often romanticised, yet the guide noted that today’s Rouge, which assembles electric pickup trucks, depends on global supply chains. A missing shipment can idle the line, and even routine model changeovers require weeks‑long shutdowns. When asked how quickly the plant could retool for national security needs, the guide estimated about a year.
When the government guarantees orders and breaks bottlenecks, lead times can shrink, but they never go to zero. The ventilator surge during the Covid-19 pandemic illustrated this. Large orders were placed in early 2020 and output ramped up across months, not overnight.
Mobilisation builds in stages; it is not a switch. A recent analysis argues that today’s industrial base cannot sprint to “Arsenal of Democracy” speed on demand. The old Rouge production model optimised for control, but today’s version optimises for cost. The former can surge faster in theory, but only if inputs and skilled labour are available. The latter can scale but is brittle.
Repair works on optic loft tubes aboard USS Ronald Reagan (Christian Gonzalez/US Navy Photo)
A visit to a mid‑Atlantic shipyard drove the point home. The welders and electricians I met were highly skilled, but many were nearing retirement and younger workers were scarce, reflecting recruitment and retention shortfalls across US shipyards. Demographics set a near‑term ceiling: when mentors retire faster than apprentices qualify.
Deterrence relies on industrial capacity – producing at scale and doing so rapidly. The 2026 National Defence Strategy calls to “supercharge” the defence industrial base. It is not just about money but shifts, certifications and people. China’s shipyard capacity makes the comparison stark. A report citing an unclassified US Office of Naval Intelligence product estimates that China has roughly 230 times more shipbuilding capacity than the United States. Moreover, China’s largest state‑owned shipbuilder built more commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than the entire US shipbuilding industry has built since 1945. China also has the world’s largest vocational education system, with 87 vocational universities, more than 9,300 secondary vocational schools, and 34 million students as of 2025. These numbers are not ends in themselves, but they underscore Beijing’s alignment of education, industry and national goals.
Scale brings costs. While China touts its vocational system, excessive working hours and “996” norms (working 9am to 9pm, six days a week) have sparked wage‑arrears protests. Population decline adds pressure to the workforce. Reforms meant to address skills shortages can also backfire when local officials treat quotas and compliance as the goal, producing stress rather than real capability. China’s system remains tightly controlled, with state-run unions and limited space for independent labour advocacy or dissent.
The United States follows a different model. Employer‑led apprenticeships and community colleges align training with vacancies. It is difficult to compare systems, so a better test is whether people show up where work exists. That metric suggests a shift is underway. Early‑career workers in the occupations most exposed to generative artificial intelligence have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment since 2022. Routine clerical and customer‑service jobs are disappearing, leaving some young people with fewer options. This is both a problem and an opportunity. Expanding paid apprenticeships and licensing courses could redirect early‑career workers into trades that translate directly into output.
Policy must focus on the people who build and repair. The US National Defence Industrial Strategy calls for more apprenticeships and for destigmatising industrial careers, yet manufacturing leaders warn that apprenticeships alone cannot close a skills gap measured in millions. The answer is straightforward: pay people to learn the trades, shorten the path from classroom to shop floor, modernise plants faster, and use multiyear contracts to keep production lines – and pay cheques – steady. Recognising electricians, welders, and machinists as essential to deterrence – and compensating them accordingly – would help draw talent into the trades.
National strength is measured at the workbench, not in plans or promises. Multiyear production commitments can attract capital, but they cannot compress the years required to train, certify, and retain skilled workers. That is why readiness should be tracked in practical terms—welders qualified, instructors available, crews manned, repair lines running, and backlogs shrinking. Each new tradesperson brings today’s Arsenal of Democracy closer to readiness. If the United States wants hard power abroad, it must make hard work at home a strategic priority.
About the author
Henry Yep
Henry Yep is a senior intelligence officer and a China specialist with 20 years of experience at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
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