As China expands military deployments into the Indian Ocean, retention of Diego Garcia for US military use is increasingly pertinent. China’s “String of Pearls” in the Indian Ocean – which includes ports developments in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan – demonstrates the growing importance of the Indian Ocean for China’s national interest. As the Indian Ocean becomes a region of increased major power competition, Diego Garcia will remain a valuable asset for US and allied militaries.
Whether the base on Diego Garcia could continue to operate at its current capacity under Mauritian sovereignty is uncertain. While Jugnauth stated at the UN General Assembly that Mauritius “is prepared to enter into a long-term arrangement … that would permit unhindered operation of the defence facility [on Diego Garcia],” UK and US inaction since UN Resolution 73/295 passed indicates this solution is unacceptable.
According to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Diego Garcia’s “status as a UK territory is essential to the value of the joint US–UK base.” Further, Britain’s Minister of State for Europe and the Americas Sir Alan Duncan outlined in a written statement that many of the functions Diego Garcia performs “are only possible under the sovereignty of the United Kingdom”.
Whether or not Mauritian sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago would adversely affect base security and the scope of military activities, the US and UK have demonstrated their unwillingness to engage in negotiation with Mauritius. Any deviation from the status quo will require US and UK compromises.
While making it unpopular internationally, Australia’s support of UK sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago demonstrates the perceived strategic significance of Diego Garcia today. By dismissing Mauritius’ sovereignty claims and the Chagossian community’s fight for the right of return, Australia in this instance has prioritised security and defence interests over international rules, norms, and values. UN Resolution 73/295 forced Australia to publicly “show its hand” and support one of two opposing futures for the Indian Ocean. While generally Australia attempts to shape rules, norms, and values to suits its own security, in this case, the two are mutually exclusive.
The strategic significance of Diego Garcia and the anxiety over the military implications of possible Mauritian sovereignty make this issue intractable. A negotiated solution would require compromises from Mauritius, the UK, and the US, which are currently entrenched in their respective positions. Meanwhile, Australia as a middle power is required to balance alliance obligations and security interests against support for international rules, norms, and values.
This piece was produced as part of a two-year project being undertaken by the National Security College on the Indian Ocean, with the support of the Department of Defence.
Samuel Bashfield