The first few months of Shigeru Ishiba’s tenure as Japan’s Prime Minister have been largely successful diplomatically, as his government concluded a summit with US President Donald Trump and kickstarted improved relations with China.
Like Fumio Kishida before him, Ishiba has the job of navigating the increasingly complex and intertwined relationship between Japan and its two most important foreign counterparts, a challenge that will become ever more awkward as US-China competition intensifies.
The difficulties are showing, with a growing bipartisan chorus of criticism regarding the Ishiba administration’s perceived “China leaning” materialising over the recent announcement of a visa expansion.
Bright days early
Ishiba has enjoyed success in his first forays with both countries, confirming the path set forth by Kishida and emphasising the positive aspects of respective bilateral relations.
Ishiba met Xi Jinping in November 2024 and affirmed the importance of promoting a “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” and building “constructive and stable Japan-China relations”. This was followed by a visit to China by Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya in December, which resulted in the announcement of a new ten-year tourist visa and an extension to short-term visas for Chinese nationals – a reciprocation after Beijing’s decision to resume visa waivers for Japanese nationals, announced in November.
Should US-China relations deteriorate, Japan would be placed in the awkward position of managing increasingly contradictory demands that it cannot meet.
Political party-level engagements also supplemented government engagements, with a delegation of lawmakers from Japan’s ruling parties visiting China in mid-January to restart the “Japan-China Ruling Party Exchange Council” dialogue for the first time in six years. These have laid the groundwork for a visit by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Japan, likely next month, and a possible Ishiba visit to China in May.
Meanwhile, Ishiba’s much-anticipated first meeting with Trump on 7 February went better than expected, with the two leaders heralding the start of a “new golden age” in bilateral relations. The prime minister was able to draw out an “unwavering commitment by the US to the defence of Japan” and further strengthening of technology cooperation between the two countries in areas such as artificial intelligence and leading-edge semiconductors.
On China, the two leaders agreed to oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force and inserted new language in their joint statement regarding the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait for both security and prosperity, as well as support for Taiwan’s “meaningful participation” in international organisations.
While these initial engagements with the two countries are encouraging, one can argue that both China and the United States seek positive relations with Japan at this time out of necessity – China to prevent further anti-China alignment between the staunch allies ahead of anticipated turbulence in US-China relations, and the United States to deepen strategic cooperation with one of its most important allies in countering the narrowing relative power gap with China.
Should US-China relations deteriorate due to inexplicable differences – as evidenced already from the tit-for-tat in the trade realm – Japan would be placed in the awkward position of managing increasingly contradictory demands that it cannot meet.
Frustrations ahead
The Ishiba administration’s delicate balancing act between its two most important counterparts has not gone unnoticed among Japanese lawmakers, who are increasingly airing frustrations over perceived “China leaning” by the relatively new administration.
This month, several members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) Foreign Affairs Division directly voiced their concerns regarding the visa relaxation measures for Chinese nationals, arguing that it “lacked balance” and reciprocity from Beijing, which has not yet addressed Japan’s requests to resolve bilateral issues such as the detainment of Japanese nationals and stabbing incidents involving Japanese nationals fuelled by anti-Japan sentiment.
Other LDP lawmakers criticised the Ishiba administration for swiftly approaching China before aligning with the new US administration, pointing out that the alliance with the United States continues to be the cornerstone of Japan’s diplomacy.
Frustrations over Japan’s China policy stem from the spectrum of views that exist within the LDP on China, with hawkish elements demanding stronger action against Chinese infractions and dovish elements prioritising dialogue. The government has tended to pursue the lowest acceptable denominator – deepening security and economic ties with the United States while aiming for amicable and stable economic ties with China.
Interestingly, criticism over the Ishiba administration’s China policy have permeated to opposition parties, with a main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party lawmaker criticising the visa announcement as premature given uncertainty over future Chinese actions and “cozying up” to Beijing.
The way ahead
It is undeniable that Japan’s well-being is served by maintaining good relations with both the United States and China. The traditional approach of “security ties with the United States, economic ties with China” may not hold, however, especially as the United States and China attempt to outcompete each other as the dominant global power.
Drawing closer to the United States could result in China exploiting Japan’s vulnerabilities – many of which will be challenging to completely eliminate, such as a heavy reliance on imported resources for industrial application. Yet improving relations with China too much could antagonise the United States and result in retaliatory trade measures or heightened scrutiny over Japanese investments in security-related sectors in the United States.
Walking this tightrope between the two countries most important to Japan’s security and prosperity will be the permanent foreign policy challenge in the coming years.
