A member of Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) handling a Myanmar military's unexploded ordnance in Mantong town, northern Shan State. Landmines and unexploded munitions claimed more victims in Myanmar than in any other country last year (Getty)

A “new normal”: Tracking the rise of global conflict

A new report reveals disturbing global trends, with violent interactions increasingly diverging from humanitarian norms.

Matthew Newman

23 December 20253 min read

The world is increasingly shaped by the proliferation of both conflict and data, yet it can be difficult to extract accurate and relevant information about the intensity and impact of political violence. One group seeking to demystify these patterns and trends is Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a US-based monitoring non-profit that collects, analyses, and maps global data on conflict and protest. Last week ACLED published its 2026 Conflict Index and Watchlist. These are the key takeaways.

Against a backdrop of protracted conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, violent Islamic groups have made a resurgence worldwide.

ACLED’s Conflict Index ranks countries based on deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and the number of armed groups. In the latest Index, the top five countries – all classified as “extreme” - remained unchanged from 2024 despite significant changes in the structure and scale of those conflicts.

The Index ranks Palestine at the top of its list. Gaza saw a decrease in conflict-related deaths in 2025 following the agreement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October, but nearly all Palestinian civilians were directly exposed to violence.

Four years after the 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military junta escalated its air campaign against resistance groups (including by adopting drone technology) and made advances in Mandalay and Shan states. In Western Myanmar, the Arakan Army consolidated control over Rakhine state and continued confrontation with Rohingya armed groups along the Bangladesh border.

Over the review period, analysts recorded 7692 conflict-related deaths in Syria, with political violence mainly stemming from instability following the deposing of Bashar al-Assad. Druze and Alawite factions clashed with security forces from the new regime, and Israel increased air strikes in the southern region to deter activity from the occupied Golan Heights zone.

Following the arrest of drug lord Ismael Zambada in the US in 2024, tensions within Mexico’s dominant Sinaloa Cartel precipitated a series of deadly clashes between the Los Chapitos and El Mayo factions for control of the group. The past 12 months also saw an 11 per cent increase in fatalities arising from violent engagements between state forces and armed groups.

Throughout 2025, jihadist militant groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimin and the Islamic State Sahel Province escalated attacks across the Sahel, including the Sokoto and Kebbi regions of Nigeria. As part of a southward expansion campaign, foreign nationals were the target of abduction efforts by associated criminal networks.

Sustained high levels of conflict between states and armed groups has catalysed a new baseline of violent interaction.

In addition to the country index, ACLED produced analysis describing the contemporary conflict environment and the key vehicles through which violence is being used to achieve political objectives.

Sustained high levels of conflict between states and armed groups has catalysed a new baseline of violent interaction that is less restrained and increasingly divergent from humanitarian norms. The scale of violent events worldwide (totalling 185,000 in 2025), combined with the waning efficacy of international institutions, has contributed to this new paradigm.

In 2025, government forces were directly involved in 74 per cent of violent events worldwide. Though non-state armed groups played an increasing role in violence targeting civilians over this period, state-aligned military groups were responsible for one-third of civilian exposure, compared to 20 per cent in 2020. This signals weakening adherence to the laws of armed conflict and reduced concern for international sanctions regimes.

Against a backdrop of protracted conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, violent Islamic groups have made a resurgence worldwide. While much of this activity has centred on Africa, terrorist events and political violence have been experienced in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. The adoption of sophisticated information warfare techniques and the acquisition of advanced capabilities enabled much of this increase.

This was also a year defined by protest. Civilian populations turned to the streets in large numbers in support of the Palestinians, and youth-led uprisings were seen in Peru, Nepal, Serbia, and Morocco. The number of these events that were confrontational (by virtue of counter-protestors or constabulary resistance) increased by 33 per cent from 2024, highlighting broad-based civil discontent with political systems and distribution of government resources.

About the author

Matthew Newman

Matthew Newman is the 2025 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholar in International Security at the Lowy Institute and Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Topics

Defence & security