Late one summer, a man vanished in the US mid-Atlantic wilderness. His disappearance went unreported for a week, and the initial police searches found nothing. When my volunteer search and rescue (SAR) team mobilised, most of us expected to be recovering a body. By late afternoon of our search, we found the man – dehydrated, weak, but alive after seven days surviving on stream water.
In the United States, volunteer SAR teams train extensively in navigation, search tactics, first aid, and communications. Missions can also draw on assets such as search dogs, tracking specialists, and aerial drones. At their best, these capabilities operate as an integrated whole – a fusion of skills and mandates that mirrors approaches to national security, where coordination under pressure matters more than any single capability.
From my own experience, SAR offers lessons that reach beyond the backcountry. These lessons include managing uncertainty, aligning organisations, and sustaining leadership when friction sets in. They apply just as much in national security as in rescue work.
In SAR, the last known position can be an unreliable data point. Subjects move, and witnesses can mislead. The danger is fixation – once a dot is placed on the map, thinking becomes anchored to it.
This fixation can distort situational awareness. In SAR, locking onto an initial search area can cause teams to overlook where the missing person went. By the time the mistake is recognised, valuable hours or days may have been lost – and with them, some of the survivor’s odds.
In strategy, the risk is similar: anchoring to one scenario creates blind spots, especially when adversaries exploit gaps between deterring war and countering coercion.
In the Indo-Pacific, this dynamic is already visible. The United States is emphasising deterring a full-scale PLA invasion of Taiwan while giving less attention to the steady coercive grey-zone tactics that fall short of war. That focus strengthens deterrence against high-end conflict and conserves resources but leaves unresolved the steady challenge Washington will face. For Taiwan, these tactics are already visible in near-daily air and maritime patrols, economic pressure, and disinformation from China – measures that chip away at resilience without crossing the threshold that traditional deterrence is built to address.
History shows great powers frequently prepare for imagined wars, while the conflicts that erupt take different forms and catch them off guard.