Attending the annual Armed Forces Day ceremony this month, South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung emphasised the importance of creating a self-reliant defence, arguing that the times of peaceful coexistence are over, and each country should be ready to defend itself. While some might think this stems from fear of the US military pulling back after Donald Trump took office, the Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back dismissed these concerns, asserting that the alliance is only getting stronger.
Seoul is ramping up investment in high-tech weapons, reflecting its elevated position among the most innovative economies.
The core reason seems to be pragmatic. Greater investment in national defence is linked to ambitions for a larger share in the global arms market. Lee’s defence policy continues a trajectory set by previous South Korean presidents, who recognised the economic potential of the weapons market and set out to become one of the world’s top arms exporters. Between 2020 and 2024, South Korea was among the top ten global arms exporters, with a share of 2.2%, and the revenues of its four leading companies increased by 39% in 2022–23. In 2024, South Korea's military spending was 2.6% of GDP (US$47.6 billion), with the Lee administration pledging to increase it by 8.2% in 2026.
South Korea's defence partnerships and imports are steadily expanding, with Seoul targeting European countries. In November 2024, the EU and South Korea signed the Security and Defence Partnership, which covers collaboration in 15 areas, including defence industrial issues. So far, South Korea has become the second-largest arms exporter to the European NATO members, supplying them with vehicles and artillery. Poland was the top buyer, accounting for 46% of South Korean arms exports. To boost exports, Lee appointed a special envoy for defence industry cooperation, who will visit Europe in 2026 to secure deals worth US$56.2 billion. Given the ongoing security concerns in the region, Europe remains one of the key markets for arms. South Korea–EU cooperation also goes beyond arms trade and encompasses collaboration in areas such as cyber and space security.
Increasing defence partnership with European countries continues the broader trend towards closer cooperation with NATO, which started in 2005 with South Korea’s Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon visiting NATO headquarters for the first time. South Korea–NATO relations were upgraded when they signed the Individually Tailored Partnership Program in 2023, detailing cooperation in 11 areas, including emerging technologies. To further strengthen cooperation in defence technologies, South Korea became a partner of the NATO Science and Technology Organisation. It seems, however, that the Lee administration is unlikely to push the NATO relationship any further for fear of aggravating Russia and China, with whom Lee is seeking to enhance ties.
Boosting self-resilient defence and AI weapons development is crucial for South Korea, given its shrinking population and declining military.
Seoul is ramping up investment in high-tech weapons, reflecting its elevated position among the most innovative economies. In 2023, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration announced the Defence Innovation 4.0 program, providing guidelines for introducing AI into defence systems. Lee has also highlighted AI, drones, and robots as key advanced weapons systems. South Korea’s achievements in cutting-edge weapons were recently displayed at the Seoul International Aerospace and Defence Exhibition 2025, attracting participants from 35 countries. Companies such as Lockheed Martin, Airbus, SAAB, Leonardo, and GE Aero took part in the event. At the exhibition’s opening ceremony, Lee stated that South Korea has become one of the leading defence powers because of the efforts of previous administrations to enhance weapons production, underscoring the continuity of his policy with that of his predecessors. Showcasing the achievements in high-tech arms development can help South Korea secure even more contracts in the coming years.
South Korea is actively contributing to the development of global rules of AI usage in the military area, proactively shaping the international conditions for its AI industry. In 2024, South Korea and the Netherlands proposed a resolution on applying international law to AI weapons, which was adopted by 165 countries. Addressing the United Nations Security Council last month, Lee urged the international community to actively shape AI rules, noting that while new technologies could help maintain peace if used wisely, they could also lead to disastrous outcomes if misused.
Boosting self-resilient defence and AI weapons development is crucial for South Korea, given its shrinking population and declining military. That is a worrisome trend, as 450,000 soldiers may be insufficient to defend against North Korea, which has an army of 1.3 million. Despite Lee’s policy to restore inter-Korean relations, North Korea remains unpredictable. After experiencing the realities of modern warfare – assisting Russia against Ukraine, and learning that technological superiority outweighs manpower – North Korea designated the development of AI military drones a “top priority”.
These developments indicate that practical reasons drive South Korea’s pursuit of a self-reliant defence but still allow for close cooperation with other nations.
