Xi draws a line on North Korea’s alliance demands

Lost among the flag-waving children and red-carpet welcome for Xi Jinping in Pyongyang last week was the true intention of the visit – China’s wish to absolve itself of any responsibility for North Korea’s military presence in Europe.

China and North Korea are treaty allies, and while Beijing is a “forever” partner of Moscow, it has no desire to become entrapped (Opens in new window) in great-power competition with the United States in both the European and Asian theatres.

A long history informs this view. China was initially (Opens in new window) worried in 1961 about signing an alliance with North Korea, fearing it would become tangled in a war started by Pyongyang. Beijing’s original position was that it would only sign such a treaty after Korean unification. But after the Sino–Soviet Split (Opens in new window) and a 1961 Soviet Union–North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance, China reversed its original position.

To win favour with Pyongyang, the text (Opens in new window) of the China–North Korea treaty is vague when it comes to defining the condition of China’s military assistance, as Beijing did not specify (Opens in new window) whether it would aid North Korea if Pyongyang attacked another party first. This left the door open for Chinese intervention on North Korea’s side were Pyongyang to resume the Korean War. China only clarified the condition in 2017 – at the height of the US-North Korea “fire and fury” nuclear standoff – that it would rescue North Korea only if it was attacked first.

The treaty also defines a geographical scope for China’s commitment – and this is what now worries Xi. Article I says (Opens in new window) that China and North Korea entered the treaty to “safeguard the peace of Asia and the world and the security of all peoples”, while Article VI affirms (Opens in new window) both parties’ “aim of preserving peace in the Far East”.

North Korean participation in the Russia–Ukraine war complicates this commitment. North Korea did not start the war, nor has it (Opens in new window) directly violated Ukrainian sovereignty. But Ukrainian armed forces killing North Korean troops in Kursk could theoretically activate a call for Chinese military assistance, given the geographical scope of the treaty remains vague – is it the world or just the Far East?

North Korea had earlier sent troops to the Vietnam War, but the geographical scope of China’s commitment was not a problem then given that Beijing also sent forces to help Hanoi fight the United States and South Vietnam.

Xi’s visit serves to clarify this geographical scope. In the Chinese state readout (Opens in new window), Asia is emphasised (Opens in new window) as the focus of China–North Korea cooperation. Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency (Opens in new window) and Rodong Sinmun (Opens in new window)omit any mention of “Asia”. Such an omission is intentional, because Pyongyang wants to link (Opens in new window) the European and the Asian theatres to justify its decision to send troops to Russia as a defence of North Korea itself. North Korea’s omission of “Asia” is consistent with its decision not to acknowledge (Opens in new window) China’s 2017 clarification on the condition of military support when both sides renewed (Opens in new window) the treaty in 2021. North Korea does not want any limits on Chinese military assistance, whether on sequencing or geography.

China has neither acknowledged (Opens in new window) nor criticised the North Korean troop presence in Russia because it plays to China’s advantage. China also benefits from the United States being distracted by the war in Ukraine – and has not condemned (Opens in new window) Russia’s invasion. But China has also been careful to avoid (Opens in new window) antagonising (Opens in new window) Europe and the United States, and the same balancing logic informs its approach to North Korea.

Clarifying the geographical scope of the alliance treaty helps (Opens in new window) China empower North Korea in Russia while minimising the chances for entrapment. China assures North Korea that it still has Pyongyang’s back in the Asian theatre, which can relieve North Korea’s defensive burden and allow it to continue dispatching troops to Russia. Dropping denuclearisation (Opens in new window) as a stated policy goal is probably the price that China must pay to bring North Korea along on the geographical limit.

China is not seeking to balance Russia, as some have suggested (Opens in new window). Where China is wary is the potential for its own alliance with North Korea to throw China’s foreign policy off balance – with Xi now regularly flanked (Opens in new window) by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un.