Taiwan, explained.
Taiwanese conscripts look on during a visit by Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te to a military base in Taichung on 28 June 2024 (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)
Every headline becomes a crisis, every policy shift becomes abandonment. Taiwan deserves reporting that resists speculation.
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Taiwan’s main threat isn’t military – it’s media speculationTaiwan’s main threat isn’t military – it’s media speculation
Every week brings at least one frightening article about the dangers circling Taiwan. And all of them spark exaggerated reactions. This is dangerous for Taiwan, which fights a battle of narratives that risk escalation into something much more serious in the short term than hypothetical military action.
For the media, this is not simply a matter of chasing engagement through sensationalism. The problem lies in how easy it is to communicate bad news and how hard it is to convey a more nuanced view.
Recently, the Washington Post claimed that US President Donald Trump declined to approve $400 million in military aid to Taiwan. The effect was immediate: as far as audiences were concerned, Trump gave up on Taiwan and cut off its military resources.
Moderate the message as much as you like in your third paragraph, but in the mind of readers across the world, only the headline matters.
However, this is not true. As explained in a Taiwanese current affairs program, military aid is free assistance, distinct from arms sales, which are still booming. The Post does not even claim the aid was cut, but rather that anonymous sources said Trump has paused the funding.
The Guardian was quick to label the episode as “sparking fears”, one of the well-worn coded phrases for speculation. Every piece of news is immediately presented as a turning point, and that is a problem.
In a similar incident, the Wall Street Journal recently reported, citing “people familiar with the matter”, that Xi Jinping is about to ask Donald Trump to take a position against Taiwan’s independence. As with the Washington Post, we have no reason to doubt the professionalism of the WSJ. But this remains speculative and would not even mean the end of Taiwan or American support of Taiwan against China.
Later, we heard of leaked documents showing how Russia teaches China about warfare. This is interesting indeed, but it doesn’t have to trigger fear that it is imminent or even fully supported by Russia. If anything, the fact that the content of their cooperation has been leaked should be reassuring.
Such messaging is amplified by anxious audiences, and media should take this into account and be more prudent in their headlines.
Taipei (Timo Volz/Unsplash)
We know for a fact that more people will read the headline than the full article. Look at the many comments on the articles themselves or on social media posts relaying them: a large number of people offer a knee-jerk reaction to it that has little to no relevance to the full text. Moderate the message as much as you like in your third paragraph, but in the mind of readers across the world, only the title matters, and it will be amplified beyond your intentions. Saying that Trump may cut a resource to Taiwan takes one sentence. Explaining why this is not as important as it seems, does not affect Taiwan’s resilience in a significant way, and is counterbalanced by other developments, takes half-an-hour of attention from people.
This is made worse by the ever-changing and unpredictable ways in which Trump conducts his foreign policy. And the truth is, it is impossible to guess what Trump will do, whether about Taiwan or any other place.
Washington is increasingly opaque. Who exactly exerts any sort of influence in the Oval Office is increasingly difficult to determine, as Trump does not rely on the same kinds of organs as his predecessors. This is in conjunction with the fog that obscures China’s decision making process. Taiwan is a disputed topic between two increasingly opaque powers whose real intentions in the short term are harder than ever to observe. This leaves an enormous vacuum for prophets of doom to occupy with few facts to challenge them – but also few facts to support them.
It remains possible that China attacks Taiwan, or that Trump gives it up – but the opposite is equally possible. And if you limit yourself to what we observe, we have no elements to think any of these dangers are imminent. Going beyond this is speculation.
The fact that so many people around the world care about what happens to Taiwan is a good sign. But audiences must be advised to seek sources that are devoid of speculation and give a clear view of events. It may not entirely soothe fears for the future, but it also does not aggravate them. Taiwan is a major topic, but it’s a topic like no other, and it requires careful and sensitive coverage.
About the author
Julien Oeuillet
Julien Oeuillet is a journalist based in Taiwan for the Taipei Times and Radio Taiwan International.
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