The next phase of global methane policy

Türkiye – Australia’s partner for COP31 – has given methane emissions a prominent place in its Action Agenda (Opens in new window) for the international climate conference in November. Alongside targets for electrification, energy efficiency and the circular economy, Türkiye set a goal of halving growth in global waste by 2035. Globally, the waste sector is the third largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions, after agriculture and fossil fuels.

Türkiye’s focus on methane emissions builds on over a decade of growing momentum on the issue. A major catalyst for the spread of modern methane regulation came in 2014, when the US state of Colorado became one of the first jurisdictions to regulate methane emissions from its oil and gas industry. Since then, other jurisdictions – from the EU and Canada to Colombia and Nigeria – have developed methane regulation for oil and gas. In 2021, over 100 countries plus the EU joined the Global Methane Pledge (Opens in new window), agreeing to take voluntary action to contribute to a global goal of reducing methane emissions by at least 30% between 2020 and 2030. The number of participating countries has since climbed to 159.

There is good reason for such momentum. As temperatures rise, the world increasingly faces the risk of crossing climate tipping points (Opens in new window) with irreversible and potentially cascading effects. Methane’s potency as a greenhouse gas and short atmospheric lifespan make methane abatement one of the most effective ways to limit near-term warming and thereby reduce the risk of triggering tipping points. Abating methane emissions from fossil fuels is also cost effective (Opens in new window), particularly in the oil and gas sector where around 40% of methane emissions can be avoided at no net cost.

Yet the world is far from on track to curb anthropogenic methane emissions. Anthropogenic methane emissions have increased since 2020 and are projected to keep rising (Opens in new window) under current policy settings all the way through to 2050. Significant regulatory steps are required globally to turn increases into dramatic cuts.

Internationally, there are two emerging directions for methane policy that go beyond voluntary action under the Global Methane Pledge. The first involves building on the EU methane regulations. The EU is increasingly requiring countries and companies that export fossil fuels to the bloc to collect and provide comprehensive data on their fossil methane emissions. From 2030, the EU will require that its fossil fuel imports meet methane emissions intensity standards. In effect, the EU is using its position as a major fossil fuel importer to drive down methane emissions from its suppliers.

Other countries could join the EU. Indeed, the EU’s 2020 methane emissions strategy envisioned cooperation between the EU and major gas importers in Asia, namely Japan, South Korea and China. In 2023, Japan and South Korea launched a voluntary program (Opens in new window) requesting information from their gas suppliers about their methane emissions. Such a voluntary program could pave the way for mandatory rules.

Another route would be a binding global agreement to reduce methane emissions, starting with the oil and gas sector. The Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, is spearheading such an effort, calling (Opens in new window) for a coalition of the willing to begin negotiations in 2027. Mottley is aiming to mobilise (Opens in new window) the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a group of 74 countries which she chairs, behind her proposal. A number of countries have already signalled (Opens in new window) their support for binding global methane action, including France, Tuvalu and the Federated States of Micronesia.

Challenges remain. Extending regulation beyond oil and gas to sectors with trickier politics is one. The participation of major methane emitters like China, Russia and India – who have not signed onto the Global Methane Pledge – will also be crucial to global efforts. Critically, China last year extended (Opens in new window) its headline emissions target to non-CO2 greenhouse gases, including methane, for the first time – a sign of heightened attention on the issue.

As a middle power with diplomatic finesse, Australia will have opportunities to contribute to the future of global methane policy. Australia has already joined the Global Methane Pledge. Around 75% of its fossil methane emissions are covered by the Safeguard Mechanism (Opens in new window) – Australia’s primary policy for industrial sector emissions. And the Albanese government has established an expert panel (Opens in new window) to review the use of rapidly advancing technologies for measuring methane emissions from fossil fuels. Australia’s independent climate advisor, the Climate Change Authority, is currently reviewing (Opens in new window) what more Australia can do on fossil methane. Steps like these can underpin Australian methane diplomacy. Domestic action can help set expectations for other fossil fuel exporters and position Australia for a world where methane emissions intensity plays a role in export competitiveness.

Far more needs to be done to curb global methane emissions. At the same time, cuts to methane must not distract from the need to also reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The science demands rapid action on both fronts.