Bangladesh, explained.
To date, many of the stories about proxy wars in Myanmar have gone largely unchallenged (Getty Images)
Despite reports to the contrary, the likelihood of any Western country joining the conflict is vanishingly small.
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Is the United States really planning a proxy war in Myanmar?Is the United States really planning a proxy war in Myanmar?
There is a school of thought, found mainly in South Asia, that claims the United States and its allies are preparing to launch a “proxy war” in Myanmar. The operation would ostensibly be aimed at destroying Myanmar's armed forces (Tatmadaw) and denying China access to the Indian Ocean.
Over the past few years, such claims have been promoted by a number of articles and editorial comments in local news outlets and on some websites. The basic outlines of the narrative are as follows:
To date, these stories have gone largely unchallenged. The Democratic Voice of Burma has picked up some claims but, generally speaking, they have not been given wide circulation.
This lack of exposure is probably a blessing, as these stories are nothing short of incredible. None of the claims made have been supported by hard evidence, nor have they been directly confirmed by any of the key actors involved. Considered from a logical, objective viewpoint, they simply defy belief.
The likelihood of any Western country actually going to war in Myanmar, even through proxy forces, is vanishingly small. No strategic imperative, as regards China’s long-term ambitions in the region, for example, would be sufficient to overcome the military problems and political risks that such involvement would entail, even if it could be conducted secretly.
None of the claims made have been supported by hard evidence, nor have they been directly confirmed by any of the key actors involved.
Also, while foreign countries and international organisations have expressed support for Myanmar’s opposition movement since the 2021 coup, and provided a measure of humanitarian assistance, none is likely to stray beyond the bounds of what is considered to be “non-lethal” aid. No clandestine attempts to do so would remain secret for very long.
Similarly, any mercenaries who secretly entered Myanmar to assist the armed opposition movement would almost certainly do so at their own initiative, not as the agents of a foreign power. Indeed, only a small number are known to have done so since the 2021 coup, and their impact has been minimal.
As already noted in The Interpreter, Myanmar has a reputation for attracting bizarre claims of shadowy deals and secret operations. The lack of hard information, the fertile imaginations of activists and some other observers, and the willingness of some credulous news outlets to publish unverified reports, all lend themselves to both misinformation and disinformation.
The latest round of stories seems to be yet another, albeit extreme, example.
About the author
Andrew Selth
Dr Andrew Selth is an Adjunct Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute, at Griffith University, Brisbane, and author of numerous books, monographs and articles on Myanmar.
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